The Russian economy has moved from recession to stagnation, said the head of the MAYOR Alexei Ulyukayev. He suggested that the economy will show growth this year”, but “not the growth we’d all like to have.”
The Minister of economic development of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev in an interview to RBC TV on the sidelines of the Eastern economic forum commented on the report of experts of the Higher economy, which said that the Russian economy is “stuck at the bottom”. The speaker with the conclusions of the experts agreed.
“I almost never don’t agree with them, but I agree. We have moved from recession to stagnation. I don’t like this game in terms, but, nevertheless, if you use them, then that is the situation then there is a period of low growth”, — said the head of the MAYOR.
However, according to Ulyukayev, the Russian economy will show growth this year,” but it will be low growth.”
“Not the growth we’d all like to have. That is 1.5-2% per year is the growth potential that we can and will have if we do not resort to structural measures, institutional reforms or fiscal and monetary stimulus, and so forth,” — said the Minister.
At the end of August the experts of the Higher school of Economics in his review “Comments on the state and business” indicated that economic activity in Russia continues to be at the minimum levels. The Russian economy is “still stuck at the bottom”, they stated. This conclusion economists have made on the basis of the July statistics, which “brought contradictory news”.
The speaker has previously assumed that at the end of this year could be a growth of the Russian economy. “I said that in the fourth quarter for sure [economic growth], in the third — maybe Yes, maybe no, with equal probability, a small increase or a small decline,” he said at the beginning of the end of August. About the fact that by the end of 2016, GDP could grow 25 August, said the head of Sberbank German Gref.
However, experts from the HSE, in its report came to the conclusion that the restoration of growth, and its subsequent acceleration in the Russian economy at the end of the year will not be. They called the more probable scenario is the continuation of stagnation/recession before the end of the period of fiscal consolidation”.
