“Nord stream” stands for scheduled maintenance. The gas is routed via the Ukrainian corridor. The Ukrainian side at first balked, and then agreed to transit the amount. Why Ukraine’s behavior here going to her detriment – will be discussed below. For a start the context.
The gas transportation system (GTS) of Ukraine is the most important corridor for the delivery of Russian gas to Western consumers. But the role of this corridor has been steadily declining. In 1998 Ukraine was pumped through its GTS 95% of gas exports from Russia, in 2015, its share declined to 43%.
The system nominally allows to pump large volumes than 60-70 billion that actually went through it the last few years. But Gazprom and its partners about 20 years navigate workarounds by Ukraine. Is it expensive? Of course. Is it possible to get along without it? The Ukrainian side believes that it is possible. But in reality it is impossible.
For two reasons: insufficient financing of the Ukrainian GTS and the high cost of the route. And if the cost can still be something to be solved through negotiations, the underfunding is a disease that can be treated only systematic by applying to the affected area large amounts of money. Very large sums of money.
Underinvestment in the gas transportation system of Ukraine according to the most optimistic realistic estimates are 80%. That is, in the repair and modernization of invest not more than 20 cents of hryvnia needed. Last nezalezhnoy supervisor, to attend to this problem, was “a bloody dictator” Yanukovych said.
In 2011 began a series of gestures towards the Russian and European partners in order to find the money for the repair and modernization of the GTS, and with it went the calculations is exactly how much money it takes. It turned out a lot. Comparable to the cost of the construction of “Nord stream”. Actually, it was Nord stream, which was then commissioned and brought the Ukrainian leadership on gloomy thoughts of the coming fall in revenue for transit. And it began to stir. But money nobody gave, and internal resources were too scarce. It was decided to hope on Russian perhaps.
Then there was a coup, and the state was not up to dirty things like repairs and upgrades to the transmission system. In the summer of 2014 was another attempt to beg money on the security of the GTS, but now is not Russia, and from the West. The West has traditionally met the proffered hand with a polite bewilderment. And the money is not returned. But a number of Western companies who understand that the Ukrainian pipe’s going to turn into a pumpkin, we started with “Gazprom” the project “Northern stream – 2”.
In words you can as much as necessary to maintain Ukraine’s European choice even sincerely wish her all the best, but to date easier, safer, and – most importantly! – cheaper to build a pipe by her. Moreover, the money for transit will not collect flighty yellow-blue government car, and you and your partners. But the pipe to bypass Ukraine meet with some resistance. As from such mighty powers as Poland, and from its immediate master.
A representative of the owner even openly stated that the Nord stream – 2 will kill the Ukrainian economy. Pity the economy, which can kill the fallen revenues (not profit!) 2 billion dollars. The Ukrainian leadership also said that its GTS reliable and no detours no need to build.
Here we briefly note that the “Nord stream – 2” is only part of the problem for Ukraine. The normalization of Russia’s relations with Turkey in the next three years will also lead to the loss of from a quarter to half of the proceeds from the Ukrainian transit (depending on the configuration of the “Turkish stream”).
In this context, there is now the Ukrainian GTS. Given this, the Ukrainian leadership has the challenge to convince everyone that the transportation system is reliable. And then there is the happy case (which, however, has been known since December 2015) – “North stream” is stopped on planned repair. Is this not a gift in such difficult conditions?
Smart, radeyuschie for their business people would jump at such a chance with both hands. They would without further ADO have ensured uninterrupted transit of Russian gas, after the repair of the “North stream” is over – would blow the whole world that they were able to experience to show that their pipe is reliable, but Nord stream is not needed, where we talk about “Nord stream – 2”!
But what we see in fact? If we discard the superfluous, the Ukrainian side who starts a business with whining about the fact that she is not ready to transit gas from-for problems with the pressure in the GTS. Begins that not even the most biased viewer might find the market for additional (free!) volumes of gas. Biased and people might even consider that the Ukrainian side tried to blackmail Gazprom.
But someone in the leadership Nenki realized how the events will look from the side and additional volumes of gas went through the Ukrainian gas transportation system. According to the Ukrainian side, now through its transportation system is pumped in the order of 276 million cubic meters of gas per night – an increase of 46 million cubic meters. But the time when it was possible to demonstrate reliability and professionalism have been missed.
Unwittingly, Ukrainian officials questioned the already obvious reliability of the Ukrainian gas corridor. Now, even if nezalezhnoy GTS can handle the extra volume without any incidents, then show yourself in the best possible way “Ukrtransgaz” will not succeed. Those who should have all seen.
Author: Alexander Frolov
