Why did President Poroshenko leads aggravation game?
Kiev will declare martial law and mobilization, if the situation in Eastern Ukraine and Crimea escalates. On Thursday, August 18, said the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko. According to him, the night of 17 to 18 August was a record number of attacks on the border of Ukraine and Donetsk and Lugansk national republics (DND and LNR).
“The night was nearly a hundred attacks. A significant number of them — fire from heavy artillery”, — said Poroshenko in the town of Brody, Lviv region. He called the attacks a provocation that “the enemy tries to use to justify their own steps of disruption of the Minsk process”.
This Poroshenko forgot to mention that on August 11 he gave the order to set the mode of combat readiness of all military units located on the border with the Crimea and Donbass.
According to the representative of the presidential administration on issues of anti-terrorist operation Alexander Motuzyanik, as a result of night shelling killed three Ukrainian soldiers, six more wounded.
“The probability of escalation remains significant. Full-scale Russian invasion in all directions, we absolutely do not exclude. We are ready, our Armed forces, to repulse the enemy — and in the East, and along the administrative border with the Crimea”, — assured Poroshenko.
In the manual DND words Poroshenko about the shelling denied, and promised in case of the Declaration on the mobilization, in turn, also to give a decisive rebuff.
Tellingly, immediately after the speech of Poroshenko in the media emerged, the U.S. Ambassador in Kiev, Geoffrey Pyatt, stated that American military assistance to Ukraine will be provided in the coming days. According to him, the defense system that the United States supply Ukraine (in particular, night vision scopes), has played an important role in resolving the conflict in the South-East.
Recall: as long as Washington provides military assistance to Kiev only in the form of uniforms and equipment. In addition, in the West American instructors are training soldiers of the National guard. But it is moving steadily to the fact that the United States will start to arm the Ukrainian army with lethal weapons.
As stated earlier, the Ambassador of Ukraine to the United States Valeriy Chaly, the question of the supply of American lethal weapons could be considered by Washington after the presidential election. According to him, the American budget is the largest ever amount of aid to the Kiev — more than $ 600 million Of which $ 330 million will be spent on security and defense, and $ 50 million can go to lethal weapon, if the White house decides.
“Free press” wrote that in Ukraine formed the extremely difficult political and economic situation, and that the Kiev regime can survive only one way: the tension in relations with Russia.
It seems that both Kiev and fed, playing the card of attempted sabotage in the Crimea. And the immediate reaction of the Payette suggests that the game aggravation is with the knowledge and approval of the United States.
What is behind the statements by Kiev and Washington as look development scenarios of the situation?
Latest developments allow a different interpretation, — the leading expert of the Center for military-political research of the MGIMO Mikhail Alexandrov.
— Of course, everything revolves around the attempts of sabotage in the Crimea, and the subsequent statements by Russian President Vladimir Putin that we will not leave the actions of Kiev unanswered. As you can see, Poroshenko immediately thereafter appealed to the President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev with the request to mediate in the relationship between Moscow and Kiev. However, during the talks, Nazarbayev and Putin, the Russian leader apparently issued an ultimatum: either Kiev fulfill the Minsk agreements, or any contacts with Poroshenko will not, and will retaliatory military action.
What can be this action is still unclear. On the one hand, there were reports that Moscow could remove the ban on offensive actions, Donetsk and Lugansk republics. On the other — the Pentagon reports that Russia is concentrating troops on the border with Ukraine, and increased its presence under the guise of military exercises. Third, are hints that Moscow may break with Kiev diplomatic relations.
All these creates a situation of uncertainty, and it is a lot of pressure on the Kiev regime. We need to understand that Poroshenko can perform the Minsk agreement only in the case that will overcome the resistance of the Verkhovna Rada. To do this the democratic way, he can not. But to make decisions without regard for Parliament, if introduce in Ukraine martial law. I do not exclude that now Poroshenko is trying to do in order to fulfill the Minsk agreements, and not to quarrel finally with Putin.
Yes to martial law necessary Foundation. In this capacity, Poroshenko is trying to use the facts of shelling on the border with the DNI and LC.
“SP”: — is the U.S. satisfied with this scenario?
— Absolutely not satisfied. That is why, I believe, the scene suddenly appeared Payette with promises of military assistance. These statements of the US Ambassador, in my opinion, trying to maintain antiperoxidase group. If the Americans have a Kiev real military support — why impose martial law? If US support is guaranteed in Ukraine, you can leave it as is. This is the signal that delivers the Geoffrey R. Pyatt.
The Americans clearly do not trust Poroshenko and the reasons on which he can impose martial law.
“SP”: — We have a U.S. intervention severely hampered?
— For Russia the situation is developing favorably in any case. For us, that Kiev twitched, and the Americans can say, begin to make promises that will not be able to perform — I mean the hints about the possible supply of Kiev lethal weapons.
After all, it is still unclear who will win the presidential election in the United States. If the new President will be the democratic candidate Hillary Clinton — whose position, incidentally, shares Payette, America is likely to be spent on supplies to Ukraine lethal weapons. If a Republican wins Donald trump, the balance of power in the triangle Washington-Moscow-Kiev will change dramatically, and not in favor of “independence.”
At the moment the Americans are doing everything possible to between Kiev and Donbass continued sluggish war — but nothing more.
“SP”: — the US is interested in escalation of hostilities in the Donbass?
— Absolutely not. Washington is well aware that a major war would lead to the defeat of the Ukrainian army, and to establish in Ukraine, in the end, the Pro-Russian regime. In this case, the United States will completely lose influence in the region.
But the current situation of low intensity war — allows Americans to tie the hands of Russia, to castigate her in the eyes of the international community, and to delay the Russian resources in the direction of the LC and the DNI, which does not allow Moscow to focus on other regions.
In fact, the Americans brought us the Ukrainian crisis quite competently. But a major war in the Donbass immediately will break this alignment.
“SP”: — what scenarios could happen?
— If Poroshenko will impose martial law, most likely, in the beginning we will see a slight escalation in the Donbass. However, this escalation will not lead to fundamental changes in the provisions of the LC and the DNI, and then Poroshenko will begin to implement the clauses of the Minsk-2 — for example, without the approval of Parliament to amend the Constitution. This might lead to peace between Kiev and Moscow, and to the transformation of Ukraine into a Federal model.
If the Ukrainian President will not be able to impose martial law, it is possible that Donetsk and Lugansk will go on the offensive. As a result, perhaps, of the Donetsk and Luhansk region will be fully under the control of the people’s Republic.
— When Poroshenko came to power, he promised to return the Donbass and the Crimea, and now set in a rigid framework, especially given the barrage of criticism from his opponents, — said the head of the Center for Euro-Atlantic and defense studies military and strategic studies Grigory Tishchenko.
— However, the US is absolutely not on hand the escalation of the conflict in the South-East, so the Americans will not allow Poroshenko to unleash large-scale war.
About what the Ukrainian crisis Washington has faded into the background, says an analysis by the American media. The level of aggressiveness of the US media has largely faded, in comparison with those times, when in the Donbas were active hostilities.
In addition, Moscow is now some cooperation with Washington on the Middle East. Progress towards convergence is clearly there. Almost continuous meetings of the head of the Russian foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov with U.S. Secretary of state John Kerry confirmed that the parties are seeking common ground.
To shake fists Poroshenko in this situation can, and may even declare martial law. But no one, I repeat, will not allow Ukraine to start a serious war.
I think the current rigid application of the Ukrainian leader is dictated by purely internal causes. Let me remind you that Poroshenko now has the parliamentary majority and the opposition against him is growing. Claiming the ability to declare martial law, Poroshenko is just trying to strengthen their position.
Many in Ukraine now require his resignation. I think, if now Ukraine held presidential elections, Poroshenko would hardly come out of them victorious. In such a situation aggravation in Donbas capable of some time to distract the Ukrainian public opinion from domestic problems, and is able to extend the stay Poroshenko in power…
