On 24 March the national Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reported that natalspruit hryvnia from flax. Factory in Zhytomyr region produced the first batch of paper with a partial content of the fibers of this plant. And this is probably the only positive news from the financial-banking sector of the country. In February, Ukraine and MouseWare in the top five of the most miserable economies in the world by the U.S. news Agency Bloomberg. What would happen to the country? This “Tape.Roo” spoke with the former head of the national Bank of Ukraine and former Deputy Prime Minister of the government Sergey Arbuzov.
“Ribbon.ru”: can today’s financial-economic system of Ukraine to resist without the support of the International monetary Fund (IMF)?
Serhiy Arbuzov: unfortunately, no. The main creditor of Ukraine is the IMF. And those requirements that the IMF imposes, it is very difficult to implement, it was immediately clear. They gave the results of very complex, not allowed to introduce in Ukraine new investors.
Do you think the IMF will continue to allocate these tranches?
It is already clear that each new installment is accompanied by new and increasingly complex conditions. And tightening over time suggests that a number of conditions that are not advertised, possibly, the country can not perform. Here is a very actively discussed the implementation of the laws required by the IMF. And not all MPs are ready to vote, so hesitation is understandable.
In 2015 the country’s GDP fell by almost 12 percent. If somehow the economy would begin to recover this year?
Although Ukraine’s economy, like any other commodity, the economy received a boost from higher prices for main export positions — metal and grain, the country can not get out of this situation independently. We need fundamental reform, not psevdoreformy that are held and real. And first of all need to purge. Only in this case and with the restoration of trade relations with Europe and with Russia, Ukraine will be able to survive.
Purge in which sector should undertake in the first place?
In my opinion, all the people that came in the Wake of the Maidan, under the slogans of the Maidan must leave the government. They are not experts. Even where you would not lose performance, lost simply because the desired level of professionalism. Until you take the last one populist, the situation radically will not change.
Permanently raises rates on social. It annoys people?
The price of gas has increased seven times. This is not the limit. It’s all due to the demands of the IMF, which were adopted by Ukraine at the request of the Fund in 2014. Of course, the population does not welcome this: each quarter, the receipt of new digits. The minimum wage does not cover the minimum cost of housing services. Satisfaction about what the average Ukrainian can be a speech?
How much on the economy of Ukraine was affected by the food embargo imposed by Russia?
Dramatically the level of life of people affected by the cessation of trade turnover with Russia. The approximate volume of trade relations between Ukraine and Russia was about 50 billion euros. Approximately the same turnover was with Europe. Now, with Europe the decline was 10 percent, and Russia with total volume dropped by about 80 percent. Accordingly, neither sell the goods, which have greater added value, to Russia nor to import goods from Russia, familiar to the average citizen, Ukraine. It creates shortages, and the discontent of the population.
Elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. 2014
Photo: Sergey Kiselev / Kommersant
Ukrainian politicians claim that they are at the moment, although only the beginning of the year, Ukraine has exhausted the quotas under the agreement on free trade area (FTA) with Europe in 2016. What’s next?
Besides what has already exhausted the quota, the current Ukrainian authorities have counted on the fact that after registration of the FTA foreign investors to come that the signing of the agreement and working with the IMF will give an impetus to foreign investors. Unfortunately, they did not come. New ones came and old ones left. As a result, what counted the power that it promised to the people on the Maidan, not implemented.
That’s a kind of deadlock?
We understood from the start that this would happen. Nothing would surprise me. What is happening in Ukraine causes only a feeling of regret.
Kiev is always telling all the new tranches. And who will pay then? This is because the cabal for many decades to come.
In history none of the populist never thought about what you need to answer for their words. Probably their task was to get in, take power, take more money, to try to show their work, and if you fail to leave. Here it looks like this.
The current economic situation over political consequences in the form of the resignation of the Cabinet and some kind of trouble for President Poroshenko?
Of course. The Prime Minister’s disapproval rating. The President of the country, despite the fact that he is trying to shift responsibility to the head of the Cabinet, the ranking falls dramatically. If you conduct a research of electoral preferences, then neither the current Premier nor the current coalition party in the Parliament, nor the current President would get only a minimum percent.
Serhiy Arbuzov
Photo: Yves Logghe / AP
In February, the Ukrainian Parliament failed to adopt a decision on the resignation of Yatsenyuk. Very interesting that the retired do not vote “the Opposition bloc”. Why is this happening?
It was a show, bought again some integrity to government, is immune. Until the fall they got it. What is happening now, looks more like some kind of undercover arrangement, which tries to implement the so-called coalition. About the “Opposition bloc” — I think they had more important things to do in this day. And they did as he entered.
In late December, made a statement head of the national Bank of Ukraine that “there is in the country of the person who would be responsible for the hryvnia, and there is no such authority.”
She was absolutely right. The man does not. However, the head of the national Bank to say it has no right. Such a statement in our times could cause not only the resignation of the government. But in today’s Ukraine is left without consequences. The extreme level of unprofessionalism.
Will Russia be able to regain issued Ukraine a loan of 3 billion dollars?
This credit is made I, head of the economic block of the government. Therefore, I can truly say: it is absolutely state obligations, the loan was issued in full compliance with international law. The fact that Ukraine decided to go to court about it, is a huge mistake. Because at the time of the trials the country has the right to enter the market, cannot attract new investment. If the court will be guided by legal rules and not political, then there is no reason for the decision in favor of Ukraine. The papers were processed very long, very carefully. It was not a commercial loan, and the state.
Prime Minister of Ukraine Arseniy Yatsenyuk
Photo: Jia Yuchen / Xinhua / Zumapress / Globallookpress.com
Main bike of Kiev — a very early acceptance of Ukraine into the Schengen area. How do you assess Ukraine’s prospects for visa-free entry to the EU?
Political expediency followed by the EU, could allow Ukraine to achieve this result. But it’s not the natural way. And I think that any benefit to Ukraine will not receive. Why? Because when on the Maidan were made to the application, students as the first participants of the Maidan, promised that they would be able to leave, they will be able to learn, they will get scholarships in Europe. Today we are talking about that first kind of a certain category of people will be able to travel without visas. And then, maybe the rest of them. Outright deception. And this deception will soon be exposed.
Some positive things you can lock in today’s Ukraine?
To characterize Ukraine by new authorities, of course, impossible. Still this country is self-sufficient, hard-working people there, people whom one has deceived. Today is a sobering society. I am sure that as soon as this aggression against Russia will fall and Ukrainian TV will continue to show a single cause, a single issue — the alleged aggression of Russia, — then comes the full awakening. As soon as relations between Ukraine and Russia is restored, Ukraine will be able to export their products. But this power must not reach the earth. If she starts to make laws on the land and sell the land, it will be a disaster. Then it will be the point of no return. And so the country can borrow money on the open market under a program developed by 2014. These projects can be raised. They just can’t bring to mind, because I don’t understand how it works. They are easy to learn and implement — that we don’t have time to do. And the economy will revive. But everyone is busy — busy with work Twitter, work Facebook, populist statements and excuses.
