President of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov has announced that it is discussing with European Union gas supplies. “Turkmenistan is discussing the plans, gas sales to the EU”, — quotes RIA “news” the Turkmen President, made August 29, an official statement after talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
According to Berdimuhamedov, his country is interested in such deliveries.
However, interested in similar supply Turkmenistan for many years. In the framework of a failed project “Nabucco” was even constructed gas pipeline to the Caspian sea. But it stalled for various reasons.
However, the world situation has changed: the European Union has repeatedly declared the desire to reduce the share of consumption of Russian gas. Is there a chance for Turkmenistan to press Russia on the European gas market?
— Turkmenistan after Russia in the face of “Gazprom” refused her gas looking at the prospect of the ability to expand markets, says a leading expert of the national energy security Fund Igor Yushkov. — Motives “Gazprom” clear: consumption of gas in the domestic market is shrinking due to the fact that the competition of the company is “NOVATEK” and “Rosneft”. And although Europe has somewhat increased purchases, that is released in the domestic market, on the outside to fully attach fails. Therefore, the “Gazprom”, most likely, this year will show another record total production.
It is clear that Turkmen gas is competing with Russian. Despite the fact that Turkmens at the time raised the price of “blue fuel”. They are now comparable to our prices.
Turkmenistan is now one of the main suppliers of gas to China. But Berdymukhamedov is not satisfied with complete dependence on China in this issue. Therefore, the Turkmens want to build the TAPI pipeline to India. To enter the Indian market in fact, the first large volumes of tens of billions cubic meters of gas. However, the problem of security of transit through Afghanistan has not been canceled. It is unlikely to disappear in the coming years, if not ever disappear. This project therefore has a very dubious prospects. Besides, India has refused to sign a long-term agreement on gas supplies. Once the Indians burned on long-term supplies from Qatar, when, after the sharp reduction of hydrocarbons had to buy liquefied natural gas two times more expensive than global prices.
That is, Turkmenistan, no long-term guarantees that its pipeline will be in demand by India. And therefore Berdimuhamedov begins to think about new options. In particular, returns to the idea of Nabucco gas pipeline through the Caspian sea. But in this direction Turkmenistan is likely to find opposition not so much from Russia, but from Iran. This country came out from under the sanctions and now not only increasing oil exports, but also plans on gas supplies. Iran is also not against to go to the European gas market. Although the Iranian gas pipeline will pass through the area, in fact, fighting between Turks and Kurds, this project has chances to be realized. And Iran, of course, do not need a large competitor in the person of Turkmenistan. Tehran strongly delays the negotiations on the status of the Caspian sea. As until they are complete, Turkmenistan will not be able to build a pipeline through the sea. A combination of factors suggests that in the near future Turkmenistan will not be able to enter the European market.
“SP”: — what if the statement was made Berdimuhamedov on the negotiations with the EU, and in particular with Angela Merkel?
— I think that Ashgabat has started to test the ground, not whether he can get an ally in the face of the EU in its quest to build a pipeline to Europe? Perhaps Berdimuhamedov hopes that the EU will unite with US in lobbying for this project. At the same time the Turkmens want to show Indians and the Chinese that they are looking for new sources of sales to partners were compliant.
“SP”: — whether the calculations Ashgabat?
Once the United States really promoted the “Nabucco”. But since that time the situation has changed. Americans do not mind to put the Europeans on its shale gas, or at least to occupy a certain niche in this market. This means that they do not need new competitors in this area. Americans, frankly, beneficial to the Turkmen withdrew from the world market. Because then China will experience a “gas shortage”. Prices for natural gas on the world market will inevitably rise, and the United States will be beneficial to supply its LNG to Europe. Americans are determined to interfere with all gas projects, including Russia. Since you will be able to maintain low gas prices in its domestic market, but world market prices will be high. So, increase the cost of European goods, and the Americans will gain a competitive advantage.
Europeans are also unlikely to want to get involved in a complex project with uncertain prospects. Now the global market oversupply of liquefied natural gas. Though he is more expensive, but you can get it immediately and in the necessary quantities.
Besides Turkmenistan, just not the 30 billion cubic meters of gas, which they would like to sell in Europe. Almost all of the developed field work in China. And not the fact that China will allow the new Turkmen gas fields were not for them, and Europeans. In any case, Turkmenistan will not have enough gas to supply immediately and TAPI in India, and a hypothetical European gas pipeline at the same time. Need a very serious external investment to develop new fields.
— Turkmenistan was extremely displeased when Russia stopped to buy her gas for resale to Europe, ” says Director of energy development Fund Sergey Pikin. Even was going to sue. By and large, it was the best option of selling gas to Europeans. However, in the new situation, “Gazprom” even your gas can not sell in the same volumes. So Berdymukhamedov is looking for new ways in Europe. But to return to the idea of “Nabucco” will be difficult because investment in this expensive project, even if it is implemented, will pay off very soon, given that the price of gas has since fallen in half — from 400 dollars per thousand kilometers of up to $ 150. At the same time Europe reiterates its commitment to LNG projects.
