As it is not my subject, but…) That I wondered why it suddenly pan Erdogan apology-it – surely because of the eggplant and the couch? The fact that uranium – around the head, and no problems around the nuclear power plant “Akkuyu” is not done, it is clear to everyone, of course. (Who does not believe – ask me)), but what else could be the reason? Brakcet, after which the EU may suddenly become not to Turkey? Logical. The upcoming shift change at the White house, the new owner can write off Turkey in the scrap for the strengthening of Kurdistan and a new wave of collapse of States in the Middle East? Too logical. But there are suspicions that the no energy thing is still not done. NPP – it is not momentary, to build it more than one year. So, looking for something energetic and “burning”.
Turkey and gas. 60% gas, Turkey is Gazprom, plus a little bit of his plus a pipe from Iran. The plans just beginning of the VI five year plan of Iran pipe to the North no because it ends with the company signing contracts with Russia. gasification of North of Iran – from our fields in the Caspian sea in exchange for gas sales from the shelf of Iran in the South. Put yourself in the place of Mr Erdogan. Oranges, trestle-beds, hotels – understood, but that somehow, though with difficulty, but can be overcome. But we must recognize a simple fact: in the case of aggravation of the conflict, Russia would not even fight – turn valves on the pipes puts Turkey in the position of the laundress, quickly and permanently. Gas from Kuwait disappears – Assad after all the trick Turkey will not drag the pipe on Syria. But the alternative we need!.. Read news feeds. Before the apology, Erdogan made peace with Israel, suddenly, has agreed to pay compensation for the Turkish citizens killed in 2010 during an attempt to peacefully break the blockade of Gaza “freedom Flotilla”. That’s 6 years Israel was on the drum the claims of Turkey, and then BAM! and with the traditional Jewish generosity, Netanyahu willingly ready to pour $ 20 million. And immediately, the restoration of diplomatic relations. We all know how easily Israel to part with money, but I’m doing something I do not understand – why would it?..
Look at the shelf of Israel. 2009, 92 km from the coast near Added discovered deposits of Tannin – 300 billion cubic meters. In 2010, 47 km from Tannin, deposits Leviathan – 3.5 trillion cubic meters of gas and around 1.7 billion barrels of oil. In-about-from! Israel needs CONSUMERS, and creditworthy. Again, put yourself in the place of Erdogan. To make peace with Russia is equal to the chance to return to the game the Turkish stream. To make peace with Russia is equal to the chance to persuade Assad to let the pipe from Israel. When suppliers two Erdogana life becomes a little more fun – and you can bargain, and my cheeks to Europe to inflate, since Evropska daring for the closure of nuclear power plants continues. Gas from Russia, gas from Israel, double the transit node/hub for Europe, the nuclear power plant from Rosatom to reduce their consumption of gas is not cookies Madame Nuland and pozvanete.
Now the second question: Putin accepted the apology, spoke of the resumption of tourist traffic, although the conditions for restoration of relations before Erdogan was billed three. That, again, “putinslil papaliolios”? Indian hut, however. Ukrainian-Baltic tale on reason (or lack thereof) squeals a little contrary to the Nord stream-2? Fist in the face knee in the chest is now not a trend, but the drive into the throat of the Turkish stream, or to threaten such action – this is useful. All? Again – Indian hut you. Inasmuch as Mr. Erdogan was forced to go to apologize, to make him simpatizante former friend Assad – difficult, but possible.
Here and resentment of Erdogan in the States may be on hand to play, and the growing tensions with the EU. With the appearance of an ally (temporary, looking for their own benefit – it is clear) to preserve the integrity of Syria, Assad, the two military bases to Russia becomes a little easier. All? Yes, again Indian hut!
2013, American exploration company US Geological Survey on the continental shelf, on the border of Syria, Lebanon and Israel finds a Deposit of Jabal Naphtha. Indicative capacity – from 3 to 17 billion barrels. “It is expected that the revenues of Syria as a result of development of oil deposits can be from 123 to 567 billion dollars (income Lebanon – from 370 to 1700 billion). Dollars then calculated on the basis of prices of 2013, now we need to bisect.” The percentage of Syria – from 60 to 280 billion dollars. The American geologists, after the outbreak of civil war in Syria to continue the work abandoned. “…the agreement on production sharing with the Assad government was signed by Soyuzneftegaz and Assad on the emergence of the Treaty “other Russian companies” somehow didn’t mind.” I’m quoting, if that, myself – the link in the end notes. And this is the description of the prize Russia if Assad will remain in place and will continue to monitor the coast in the vicinity of Damascus. Well, or where the pipe from Jabal Naphtha will fall.
And absolutely finally – why it all started to happen after Netanyahu’s visit to Moscow, actually? Jabal Naphtha – on the border offshore territories of Syria, Lebanon and Israel. With Lebanon, Syria clearly able to negotiate, but never, no where, nor for what reason Israel had made no claims on the part of Jabal Naphtha. More than two years, Assad has not raised complaints about the Israeli-occupied Golan heights, although in his hands the resolutions of the UN security Council for this reason. Then suddenly this forgetfulness? Jabal Naphtha. What accommodating of Israel? The Golan heights. What are the Golan heights? Golan heights – oil! Found the oil-containing layer with a thickness of 350 meters, which is greater than the average thickness of the 10 (!) time. Landmark – at least 1 billion barrels. On land.
Now let’s throw out the geopolitics, NATO, DAYS and view the picture from the point of view of hydrocarbons. Turkey gets a chance to push for two new gas pipe from Israel and from Russia. Russia gets a chance on the disappearance of the objections to Nord stream-2. Russia gets a chance to sell new volumes of gas to Turkey and southern Europe peacefully share with the Israelis the market. Israel gets a chance to gas consumer and tranquility on the Golan heights around the oil fields. Syria gets the opportunity to stop the war and on the income from Jabal Naphtha to restore all damaged.
Russia has two military bases in the Mediterranean and its share of the pie from Jabal Naphtha. Who are the losers? Calculate yourself, I have more than a week about the uranium did not write.
Author: Boris Alestar
