The financial system of the entire planet are faced with insurmountable problems
The world economy has entered a phase of development when the play should be all. This is stated in the investment piece of the famous investor bill gross, who until 2014 was led by one of the largest bond Fund PIMCO, and is now headed by Janus Capital. According to the financier, the situation of impasse is clearly visible if you analyze the credit growth in the world.
Gross notes that prior to 2000, the average annual loan growth was above 9%, today it is less than 4%. “Credit is the oil, fuel, heating system operation, and if the system is unable to generate sufficient credit growth, real economic growth stalls, or even goes in the opposite direction,” writes bill gross.
To illustrate what is happening, the financier gave an example from the Board game “Monopoly”. When all sites are bought up and all the objects they built, players can only walk in a circle to complete ruin.
Another problem, according to gross, is the deceleration of the velocity of circulation of credit money. Quick turnaround paid loans allows the lenders to increase lending and expand the economy.
To increase the speed of circulation of money Central banks in recent years have lowered rates, but they are now close to zero. To invest in new capacity too, no one wants because of diminished liquidity.
It turns out that the money is simply nowhere to attach. And it threatens stagnation on a global scale.
Another difficulty is anticipated robotics industries, which will lead to higher unemployment. Turns out that the world economy is not growing, and consumer demand falls only.
If you translate the tenets of gross into the language of Marxism, today we entered the stage, when the relations of production come into conflict with the productive forces. Accordingly, the inevitable collapse of the current economic model and transition to a new one.
On the other hand, on fully selected markets to hear a bit strange. Two-thirds of humanity today lives in poverty. If they engage in the world economy, to make producers and consumers, there will be new markets. Accordingly, the problem of where to invest money will disappear.
In the opinion of Professor of international Finance MGIMO Valentin Katasonova, the current crisis may fail for the inhabitants of the Earth are very bad:
Today in the world there is falling demand for money, there is overproduction. It is registered as unlimited and uncontrolled printing press for the so-called “quantitative easing.” When there is overproduction of goods, falling prices, and when there is overproduction of money, falling interest rates. Today many banks have negative interest rates, and some Central banks have negative interest rates on banking operations. Has recently been rocked by the sensation that in Denmark and Belgium some commercial banks grant mortgages at negative interest. Overall, there is a theater of the absurd.
Money available to an increasing extent, ostensibly to overcome the crisis of 2008-09. But funds are not going to development and not in the real sector, not loans and not to investment projects. All the money goes to the financial market. Accordingly, the inflated financial “bubbles”. They are formed in different segments of the financial market. The economy is not growing rapidly, investments have little return on investment, and stocks rise.
As a result, we see an increase in the debt. In the whole world he is in relation to GDP is larger than before the 2008 crisis. To date, a dangerous situation exists in the United States. In Europe, the situation is just explosive, and nobody can do anything. Huge debt and China.
The important thing is that no one has any idea how to get out of a dangerous situation. The Federal reserve system a choice between bad and very bad. We see this in throwing the leadership of the fed that does not know to raise or lower the key rate.
So the second wave of the financial crisis is inevitable. Russia does not have to look at the actions of the fed, and as shut out of the world’s problems. It is necessary to introduce the control of transboundary movement of capital, it is necessary to radically restructure the work of the Central Bank. The Central Bank should cease to increase monetary reserves and to issue for the purchase of foreign currency. Need to work on the Russian economy, and not the us.
“SP”: — however, due to robotization will increase and unemployment.
— Unemployment will grow. Happens the alienation of man from the means of production. How to solve this problem? Recently in Switzerland held a referendum on an unconditional basic income. The idea was that every citizen will receive 2,500 Swiss francs, regardless of whether it works or not. The majority voted against such a measure. The logic of the people is clear: free cheese only in a mousetrap, and unconditional income is to be paid at the expense of working.
The current model of the world economy leads to unemployment and mass starvation. The model proposed by Switzerland, also has a lot of “cons”. But let me remind you that in Soviet Union there was no unemployment.
“SP”: — What will be the world economy in a few years?
— If to speak seriously, the objective of the current masters of money — drastically reduce the population of the planet. It is not necessary to conduct war, you can poison people with bad food, to corrupt them. The remaining people will drive into an “electronic concentration camp.”
Today interest rates on deposits were negative. Accordingly, people do not have money in the banks, and that the collapse of the current banking system. So as soon as possible want to eliminate a cash turnover. Talking about it, and in our country.
In the end, the owners of the money will have control over all expenditures of the people. And if the person is in their behavior will deviate from that prescribed, it will disconnect all life-support systems. As stated in the book of revelation, who will have printed, will not be able to buy and sell.
“SP”: — there Must be a positive alternative?
— Who will implement it? The owners of the money? It remains to appeal to yourself or to God. To appeal to politicians, in my opinion, pointless.
Senior lecturer of the Department of Economics and Finance, Ranepa Boris Brewer looks at things more optimistically:
— The idea of the end of the development of the world economy is not new, it was reasoned even John Keynes. He said that this was the limit of aggregate supply, and only change prices. As always in Economics, these ideas have some truth. In the US money supply indeed increased in the extreme. On the other hand, it is difficult to talk about the stalled lending throughout the world. There are developing countries where lending is not made it to the top. In India, the same lending is in its infancy. Most people can not afford in General to allow the instrument to increase self-consumption and for business development. Even in Russia there are opportunities to increase business lending, at times, we have another 40 years to increase the money supply through lending.
In the US the limit is reached. In the future we can expect a recession, a depression, a recession. But in Russia the situation is different. Even in Europe, lending to increase, though not in all countries. The truth, as usual, somewhere in the middle.
“SP”: — will the owners of the money involve residents of poor countries into the world economy, or prefer to leave them in poverty?
— If you take the purely human aspect, that there will be any enthusiast who wants to change the situation, we can recall the Nobel prize winner Muhammad Yunus. This is a financier from Bangladesh, which has developed a microcredit system for the poor people. They did not fit under any definition of the risks, they would not have given a loan by any Bank. But thanks to microcredit, many people were able to start their own business. Of course, it’s all isolated cases.
Everything depends on the government of a state. If it is interested in the development of the population, even the poorest country can succeed. The question is, who will come to power and that will begin to do. Positive examples in history are many. For example, Singapore was a swampy island where there was nothing. Came to power , Lee Kuan yew, he changed the situation. You can recall the “Asian tigers”, which is absolute misery escaped in the category of prosperous countries. Any development in the hands of the peoples and their leaders. You can develop with minimal resources, and you can have all the necessary and to be in the Wake of the global economy.
“SP”: — does the global economy the growth of unemployment?
— You can still remember the uprising of the Luddites, who at the dawn of capitalism smashed the machines because they were afraid of unemployment. Indeed, the implementation mechanisms are left without work of those who have been engaged in a primitive work. But the employment of qualified began to grow. With the development of production employment increased, just changed staff requirements.
The same with robotics. If this industry will be advanced, it will destroy some jobs, as always in history, and it happened. But there will be a new profession. Even for the entire world, robots will need production, scientific potential, and one country can not cope with the task.
The world evolves, and it always has been. Initially, the robots are made to order, then there will be requests for another labor under mass production. So nothing terrible there.
