Remembering the high-sounding statements by President Barack Obama in which he stated that Russia’s economy is in tatters, and the country is completely isolated, I want to once again smile and be happy for our economy.
What is happening in our economy? The last time we hear about it very conflicting opinions. Especially from citizens who judge the state of the economy only on your wallet. It is strange to think that we lived for two years in the face of economic sanctions. Remembering the 1998 default, which occurred just in these days, it is easy to see that nothing like that time occurs.
Why? If you go to serious sources like Forbes, Bloomberg or even the rating Agency Moody’s, they all in unison say that the Russian economy was saved by the right actions of the government and the Central Bank. Not enough money, but the Central Bank is in no hurry to include the printing press, in the end we first came across no inflation and deflation.
In two years the market has adapted to life in terms of sanctions. Running the program of import substitution, showing remarkable progress in agriculture. Industry almost all industries is in the process of modernization. For example, all oil companies one way or another, but the transition to deep processing of oil and offered to the market than crude oil, and a huge range of diverse products.
Rightly criticize us for being too politicized and Moody’s are unable to go against the facts. If at the beginning of the year, the Agency predicted the fall of Russia’s GDP by 1.5%, at the end of the first half, Moody’s revised its forecast and now promises that Russia’s GDP will decline by only 0.5%.
Analysts believe that Russia in the autumn will begin to emerge from the recession due to the positive dynamics in agriculture and the chemical industry. In addition, the positive Outlook reflects the fact that Russia’s economy has adapted to the prevailing adverse circumstances faster than expected. After the exit from recession to the end of the year the Russian economy will go to growth. Moody’s forecasts Russian GDP growth in 2017 by 2%.
What does this forecast? First and foremost, it is a signal for investors, talking about the restoration of the Russian economy. Because of sanctions many of our companies are closed long-term loans from Western banks, in terms of economic growth, they are looking for investors, primarily within the country. Western investors will have to be in place.
On the other hand, the Moody’s forecast is also a signal for the opponents of anti-Russian sanctions, the discontent which in the West is growing. First, due to their apparent failure, and, secondly, because of the damage that Western companies are suffering. They now have a good bargaining chip to put pressure on their governments and the European Commission.
Given that all the previous pessimistic forecasts for Russia did not materialize and the economic situation in the country was better than expected, and here it is expected that Russia’s GDP next year may grow even more than 2%.
No reason to come out, otherwise not visible. If any disasters will happen, in a year we can already congratulate with the fact that we have successfully completed major challenges. And, of course, we all learned a very important lesson: in this world you need always to rely primarily on themselves.
