But I know – the fed revised the growth forecast of U.S. GDP for the first quarter from 2.3% to 0.1%. Significantly, I would even say “it hurts”. And there is a suspicion that these pathetic 0,1% left only, so as not to disturb markets too much.
This is clearly seen on the example with Apple, whose sales fell in the first quarter of this year, more than 20% compared to the previous what happened for the first time in the history of the company. In addition, first quarter they traditionally considered to be the best, because it always launch the most “delicious” news. Forecasts for the next quarter was also disappointing.
And, as an additional illustration, one of the largest shareholders of Apple sold his share of the stock by about 25% cheaper than current market value (or losing nedopoluchit with more than a billion dollars). So just, for no reason, such things are not done.
Apparently, the possible drop in the capitalization of “Apple” can be even more significant. It’s already dropped its market capitalization over the past year from approximately 750 to 586 billion.
According to available information, the company’s headquarters in Cupertino, was fired most of the HR managenow, which means that in the near future the company’s expansion is not planned (on the contrary, will face further staff reductions).
However, we delayed the illustration, and it is time to return to the basic fact: the US economy is at least stagnating and possibly falling. Statistics for the majority of sectors showing a negative trend (decline in).
In the last few quarters the revisions of the forecasts less regular, as the subsequent correction of already published statistics are also always in the smaller side. That is, first publish the reports that all the supposedly good, but after a few months when they have no influence on the markets, publish more truthful data.
On the occasion of the deplorable state of the economy (as industrial production and the financial sector) April 11, held a closed emergency meeting of the Board of governors of the Federal reserve. The results of that meeting remained unknown to the General public, because unlike the regular meetings of the Council, then any statements (statements) was not done.
Immediately thereafter, fed chair Janet Yellen also unscheduled and closed met with “still” President of the United States Barack Obama. Their previous meeting was already in 2014. The content of the conversation Yellen Obama also remained classified.
April 12 and 13, again are closed meetings of the Board of the fed, the contents of which are again not disclosed.
Also on 13 April comes the information that 5 of the 8 largest U.S. banks failed stress tests conducted by the fed (the “BNP Paribas” and “Deutsche Bank” we have already written separately).
It is also assumed that their income fell in the first quarter of the current year by approximately 20%, showing the lowest results since 2008. My favorite “Goldman Sachs” and does revenue fell by 40% and profit by 56%.
After that, on April 14 and 15 held meeting of the world Bank and the IMF, as well as meetings of Finance Ministers and Central bankers of G20.
And after April 20, when he published quarterly reports of the largest American banks, we see the indices on the new York stock exchange began again slowly but surely to sink.
Tellingly, the “free associated” to the US state of Puerto Rico, managed from Washington, recently announced a second default in the last two years. “Dumb pennies” even to save his own satellites (so nothing Poroshenko flies to beg, if it is a native of Puerto Rico not given, then some distant natives especially do not give).
I’m closely watching what is happening, but so far no special movements of the fed and other institutions are seen. Even left the key rate unchanged. Apparently, they are just confused and have not yet figured out what to do with the current situation.
Some American analysts generally believe that the fed is going to implement a policy of “reverse qualitative easing” by selling US Treasuries, which are registered on its balance sheet.
In Europe, ECB President Mario Draghi said recently that he intends to “pause” before making any changes to monetary policy. Apparently, the agreement on concerted action with the fed they have, and Draghi wants to see how will Yellen act, before changing the key rate or do any other meaningful steps.
Possible strengthening of the dollar will have a negative impact on the balance of the transatlantic trade is not in favor of the United States, so this is another reason not to raise the key rate. And without her raising investors will again begin to go on the Chinese stock market, which just shows a very landslide stabilization.
Again, on 23 June a referendum on withdrawal from the EU will be held in the UK, which may further to provoke a panic in European stock markets. About holding a similar referendum and there is talk of the Czech Parliament (which of course less important, but very revealing).
There is an opinion that the world is on the threshold of the Grand nix. And many who realize this, have stood on half-bent, ready depending on the circumstances, to duck or jump.
Only one “great ukropskie analyst” Sexton continues to broadcast “America is indestructible, Russia will fall tomorrow”. And several hundred of his loyal hamsters for two years dutifully nod “of Course, SUGS!”. Sect of believers in the us dollar is so funny.
