Although the initial volume of deliveries on TAP is not too large, according to Gazprom’s scale, it will be another of the many steps in Europe towards in order to completely transform the gas industry in the market not the seller and the buyer. In such a market gas is a commodity, to offer which can at any point from several suppliers.
Start of construction of TRANS-Adriatic TAP pipeline from Turkey through Greece and Albania to southern Italy became a painful blow for Gazprom. When in 2020, the Azerbaijani gas via this route will come to the Peninsula, it will be able to replace up to half of the volume, which is now the Italians are getting from Russia. And given the mood of European consumers, which are not without reason to suspect Gazprom is ready to cut off the flow of gas at the behest of the political leadership in the Kremlin, the Russian company could become the first who will lose the Italian market.
This development is especially sensitive to the Russian giant that his gas is simply nowhere to go. When the head of “Gazprom” Alexey Miller from year to year chanted the favorite slogan “We produce only the gas that is already sold,” he, to put it mildly, dissembled. Now the company has developed so many fields that you created through hard work of the gas production potential is not enough markets.
Miller reported to Russian President that in 2014 the unclaimed by consumers volume remained about 173 billion cubic meters. According to estimates RusEnergy, this estimate is far too low. The gas monopolist is able to send to customers annually to 225 billion cubic meters more, than they actually take. Size is actually another Europe along with the former Soviet republics, given their current requests for supplies from Russia.
Prospects to increase sales rainbow will not name. “Turn to the East” that I was hoping for in “Gazprom” did not take place. The project stalled construction of LNG plant near Vladivostok. At issue is the construction of the third line of the Sakhalin LNG plant with capacity of 5 million tons per year. The gas pipeline “Power of Siberia”, and will be laid if at all, is targeting a saturated market of China, where not only the projected significant gas consumption growth, but besides make delivery unprofitable. Domestic demand is not growing: the national economy is not in the best position.
The only, albeit weak hope to increase sales for Gazprom is Europe, but there the interests of the Russian monopolist inflict blow after blow.
Calculations of Moscow that the Europeans will soon need to buy in Russia about 200 billion cubic meters of gas per year, is not justified. Yes, gas production falls by Europeans, but also faster in reduced net imports-from 299 billion cubic meters in 2010 to 219 billion in 2014 (a slight rise in this indicator in 2015 the overall trend does not reflect). In Europe learned of energy efficiency and energy conservation, stimulated the rapid development of alternative energy and use of renewable energy sources.
And worst of all for “Gazprom”: buyers obsessed with diversification, and not in the form of creating new routes for the old supply, focuses on what a Russian company, and by including in its balance of gas from new sources. The TAP pipeline is only one example. Competition to Gazprom totaled and exporters of liquefied natural gas, the excess of which on the market not only led to the fall of prices in spot transactions, but also strongly affected the price formulae of long-term contracts.
In Europe, gradually formed the market of the consumer, not the seller. The tone is more and more asked by customers. Last year, the EU only used 65% of the capacity of the pipelines through which it receives gas outside suppliers (the capacity of the pipes going to the West from Russia, used even less – only 45%). The technical potential of liquefied natural gas remained unclaimed by 76%.
Europe is doing everything to keep the gas turned into a commodity, to offer which can in any point from some sellers. Within the EU gas transportation are being built jumper, developed scenarios of transport volumes in case of disruptions in supply. Soon nobody will be able to act as a non-alternative supplier of gas, and Europeans will forget about their complaints of excessive dependence on the Russian monopoly.
The reaction of “Gazprom” on the new face of the European market is not realistic. After losing the race for the markets of liquefied gas, the company is trying to recoup the cost of the usual way – by building new pipelines.
Adventurous idea with the “South stream” failed ignominiously, and last but not least due to the fact that “Gazprom” arrogant started the project and have time to invest in it, according to various estimates, from $14 billion to $17 billion, without the consent of the regulatory authorities of the European Union (and even not requesting that consent). The calculation was made on bilateral agreements with individual countries and companies along the route of the proposed route. Uncoordinated and illegal (from the point of view of the norms of the European Union) undertaking failed, as failed and attempt to save face with statements about the mythical “Turkish stream” for which no tangible steps were not done at all.
Another attempt of the same kind – a proposal to build two more gas pipeline “Nord stream” on the Baltic. This project, however, there is a chance of success, but not because Russia needs new routes of gas supplies to the West (old capacity, and so half more than necessary).
Foreign participants of the consortium that will build the underwater section of the “Nord stream 2 and will become its operator will receive a guaranteed cost recovery and long-term source of income, because – following the example of Nord stream – 1″ – will charge you for transportation not on the basis of the physical gas volumes, and overall throughput of the pipeline. Last year, the earnings of the consortium Nord stream – 1″ amounted to at least $2.5 billion of these revenues the Nord stream – 2” 51% will be supplied to the Swiss account Gazprom’s “daughter”, which is involved in the consortium.
Best new project and Germany, but rather its companies buying gas from Russia because they rely on new pricing terms. Gazprom in March-April of this year, according to IMF calculations, supplying gas to the border of Germany at the price of only $129 per thousand cubic meters, and then prices should fall even more.
From sources in “Gazprom” it appears that the strategic direction of the new Nord stream – 2″ they felt, oddly enough, the South of Europe. It was assumed that the gas from Germany will go to Austria, where on not yet built the bridges will be able to reach Italy, Greece, Balkan countries and even Turkey. With the filing of “Gazprom” these jumpers under the guise of the pipeline project, Tesla offered to build in Serbia and Macedonia. The initiative was graciously greeted in the Kremlin, as she answered the goal of depriving Ukraine of the Russian gas transit. Taking the long distance route and the associated costs are enormous in the habit were excluded from the analysis.
When Moscow realized that the TAP gas pipeline is about to start to build, was made a clumsy attempt to replace his old and long discarded in Europe the project “Poseidon”, that is, a pipeline from Greece to Italy, but the idea from the beginning was unconvincing. Its initiators did not explain how the Russian gas will go to Greece without the “South stream” and that without assistance from either Turkey or the EU (through Bulgaria).
Despite the fact that the initial supply at the TAP is not too large, on the scale of Gazprom, the project has good prospects. It opens the way to Europe for gas of the Caspian sea – Azerbaijan first, and then, perhaps, and Turkmen. To the same route in the future can join the suppliers of gas from Iraqi Kurdistan and even from Israel. Southern Europe diversification is provided, and compete with other suppliers “Gazprom” have not exclusive possession of the pipes, and the only one left in the disposal of weapons – price dumping.
