The strengthening of the ruble may allow the Bank of Russia to finally go for a rate cut, this writes the Agency Bloomberg.
The article mentions the level of 60 rubles per dollar, at which the CBR could decide on rate cuts in this quarter. This forecast was given 8 out of 30 respondents by Agency experts. In addition, to the Bank of Russia went on easing monetary policy, it is necessary that in the next few weeks, inflation showed signs of acceleration. We will remind, now the growth rate of consumer prices for the first time since the middle of 2014 fell below 8% in annual terms.
The exchange rate, I must say, having an impact on inflation, because the share of imported goods in our market are still very high. From their January lows, the Russian currency strengthened against the dollar and nearly 25% – one of the best performance among world currencies.
As for the upcoming Friday session, here are just 6 of the 36 analysts expect rate cut 50 basis points, the rest assured that changes will not happen and the rate will remain at 11%.
“If the ruble will remain strong for longer periods of time, which, in particular, is associated with a favorable dynamics of oil prices, the rate can be lowered before. Probably, on Friday”, – quotes Bloomberg words of the economist of Raiffeisen Bank International Andreas Schwabe.
A change in the trend
Last year the Bank of Russia began with five consecutive cuts in the key rate, but then on the background of changes in external conditions this series was interrupted. For five meetings of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation leaves it at the level of 11%. The last time the rate was lowered on 31 July last year, and the dollar on the Moscow exchange ahead of the meeting closed just below 60 RUB.
Now the dollar is worth about 65 rubles., however, the further dynamics will depend on oil prices. On the eve of the quotations of “black gold” has renewed highs since November last year.
After the publication of “soft” statements of the Federal open market Committee (FOMC), the fed in the markets has noticeably increased appetite for risk, which on average led to the growth of the futures on Brent and WTI brands of 3%.
On the Intercontinental exchange (ICE) in London futures for Brent crude for delivery in June rose 3.2 percent to $of 47.21 per barrel. Futures on WTI with delivery in June finished trading on the new York Mercantile exchange (NYMEX) 2.9 percent to $45,33 per barrel.
The values become highest for Brent and WTI with 10 and 4 November 2015, respectively.
Read more: http://www.vestifinance.ru/articles/70331
The MAYOR kept its assessment of inflation in Russia in April to 0.5%
The economic development Ministry keeps inflation forecast in Russia in April, at 0.5% in may and is expected to increase prices within the April values, said to “Interfax” the representative of the Ministry.
Rosstat reported on Wednesday about the return of the weekly inflation in Russia to the level of 0.1% after a surge of 0.2% from 12 to 18 April.
With the beginning of the month price increase to 25 April has made 0,5%, from the beginning of the year to 2.6%.
On the basis of the Rosstat data in annual terms inflation to 25 April was at the level of approximately 7.3% as at the end of March (in mid-April, annual inflation fell to 7.2%).
The Deputy head of the RF Ministry of economic development Nikolay Podguzov said on Thursday that the Ministry expects no change in sentiment in the Bank of Russia and on the Board of Directors meeting on Friday: even if no decision about the reduction of the key rate, the controller will hint to the market about the future of its reduction.
