Commodity superpowers are no more. The verdict is final and not appealable. Two years the oil market lies in the knockout due to the shale revolutionaries from the US and no promised price of hops the cost of “black gold” is not happening. Meeting the hydrocarbon exporters in the format of OPEC and other venues increasingly resemble memorial gatherings over a glass.
Now frayed and the once swaggering sheikhs in arapatka and their secular counterparts without hats with nostalgia the days when “there was at 120”. It was quite another matter, not that the current 46. They skyscrapers are not built, the army of bureaucrats is not to feed the tanks and planes by the hundreds do not buy. Having lived 10 years in a big way, the country that sells muddy oily muck across the border, naively thought that it would last forever. To pay for the mistakes of the “era of the Golden barrel” is necessary here and now. Someone fate for these two years is barely noticeable dented, and someone mercilessly past the roller.
About Russia already said a lot. The brunt of the crisis rests upon the shoulders of ordinary people. To reduce the debit with the credit” the Central Bank doubled the ruble has fallen off. For one dollar now paying up to 65 wooden. Impoverished people prefer domestic goods, which is a balm for the soul local producers. These measures are enough to reduce the budget deficit to 3% of GDP in 2015 and 2016. The economy is falling by 3.7% and 1%, but no defaults. The remaining arrears are to be covered through privatization of state property, freezing of budget spending and unpopular pension reform. The reserve Fund is almost exhausted, will soon move on to savings from the national welfare Fund. Oil campaign feel good, barlevy putting one record after another. The industry needs subsidies and receives them in a truncated form. The share of hydrocarbon revenues fell from 55 to 37%. Therefore, no oil needle we will live. Really bad and long period, which, however, is better than nothing.
Saudi Arabia also hurts, but the Kingdom suffers. Seemingly dimensionless “airbag” losing 90-100 billion dollars a year. Cyclopean budget deficit ranges from 15 to 20% of GDP revenues 45% inferior to the costs that forces you to cover it at the expense of foreign exchange reserves are rapidly melting. At some point, potbelly Riyadh reached 750 billion. This money would be enough for a full reboot of seven Ukrainian and one Belarusian economy. For two years, its volume dropped by a third and continues to be burned by the Central Bank, a restraint unreasonably high rate of national currency. It is easy to calculate that this money is enough for 5 years, not more. King Salman and the government is already contemplating on increasing the efficiency of spending and reducing government spending. Seriously discussed removing subsidies for the population, which is free energy, just cut the salaries of officials and generals, a few will take on the foreign market. However, the problem will not disappear, because oil exports provide 90 to 95% of revenues.
Similar difficulties were experienced Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait. The exception to the rule – UAE. Emirates has solved the problem of diversification of the economy long before the crisis began. The lion’s share of revenue in the budget bring tourists from all over the world who consider it their duty to visit Dubai. Norway’s $ 46 per barrel, like a mosquito bite for the Hippo. The Vikings 35% have fallen off the crown, stimulated domestic demand, reducing the key rate to 0.5%, and resorted to borrowing from a giant stabilization Fund to $ 737 billion “green”. We can say, did not notice the crisis.
But the Bolivarian Venezuela is not to be envied. If the Saudis and the Scandinavians have something to spend, then the oil Empire of Hugo Chavez, it seems, is served thus, a huge copper basin. All the economic horror, which promised the Russian and Ukrainian experts has hit this Latin American country. In order to make ends meet and not to resort to foreign loans, Caracas was necessary stalactitical barrel. It before it was on the verge of utopia, what can we say about the present time. In short, with South American gas station what happened leftists were fond of their own electoral popularity by trying to implement a back-breaking long-distance social programs. Industry and agriculture safely allowed to drift. Drew a picture of the terrible. “The apotheosis of war” Vereshchagin is resting. Thinner 20% Economics, $ 145 billion budget deficit – about 25% of GDP, modest foreign exchange reserves of 15.5 billion. Milked and dried oil company PDVSA is virtually bankrupt, the population voted for the liberal opposition. While President Nicolas Maduro is happy as a child that managed to pull off a brilliant deal with China – the celestial Empire restructured $ 15 billion of debt in exchange for oil tankers. The dollar on the black market reaches 500 bolívares, the trade deficit is comparable to the late Gorbachev.
Someone who, as residents of this Republic no phrase Medvedev not calm. If the oil market will not happen anything extraordinary, a humanitarian disaster in Venezuela is not far off. A very similar situation in Nigeria. The only difference is that the unfortunate African natives one initially did not spoil, therefore, a default may simply not notice and shocks them is not so painful. Have utoptala cheap barrel and in other countries. Azerbaijan is experiencing comparable economic shocks, fright rewrote the Constitution, agreeing to a lifetime dictatorship of the Aliyev clan. Kazakhstan tightens belt on the script, very similar to Moscow. Iran do not need to save: he lived for over 30 years under sanctions and could not enjoy all the benefits of oil-producing countries. Now with the restrictions gone. Even the current price gives Iran a chance for a serious economic breakthrough. However, even the Ayatollah cannot be called a winner, because he could count on a larger piece.
And what about the “shale revolution”? Two years ago they predicted a painful death at an oil price of below $ 70 per barrel. But campaigns using hydraulic fracturing as a method of extraction, was tenacious, like rats and cockroaches. If in may this year, the rig count barely rose past 400, for the moment, us oil companies use the 510 towers. The company burst under the debt load, changed the legal person, which, apparently, destined to the same fate. Repeat simple fraudulent scheme as long as it does not cease to be profitable. The main thing – to keep pace with investors from multinational corporations and the dollar printing press. Cheap oil helps the us economy to stay afloat and in the black. This year the stars and stripes giant there is a 1.5% to its GDP, in 2015, the economy advanced 2.1%, which for such a structure is very, very bad. While “unconventional oil orientation” one wicket ahead of “straight”. And to do this, neither Russia nor Norway nor OPEC can do nothing.
