Elena Malysheva
AnimationПостер to the DreamWorks animated film “Kung fu Panda 3” (2016)
40% of Russians said the deterioration in its financial position for the year. In General, the population has adapted to the new reality and moved on “defensive consumer behavior model” c election economy and the creation of personal “reserve funds”.
Defense economy
More than half of Russians negatively assess the changes in the economy over the past year, 30% expect changes for the worse. However, the number of pessimists has declined, found the Institute for statistical studies of the HSE. In September, the Russians have shown optimism and their purchases: the average check for the first few months grew. The reasons for the paradox in adaptation, experts say.
The results of the survey show that pessimism is generally the same although slightly decreased compared to the second quarter of 2016. In the third quarter improved personal financial situation noticed 8% of respondents, a decline of 40% (compared to 7 and 41% in the previous quarter). Expect improvements 9%, deterioration — 22% of respondents. Significantly reduced the number of those who negatively assesses changes in the economy over the year: from 63 to 52% of respondents.
If we talk about the future, pessimists are still markedly more optimistic: 29% expect the downturn in the economy, positive changes are waiting for only 18%. The consumer confidence index population, calculated by Rosstat, in the third quarter of 2016 remained negative, although increased by 7 percentage points.
The pessimists are probably right, the Director of the Center for business research Institute of the HSE George Ostapkovich.
On the restoration of the level of living speech in the near future is not: real disposable monetary incomes fall for two years, and the intensity of this process is not reduced, he says. Therefore, the main reason for the improvement in sentiment that the Russians have adapted to the “new reality”.
“Households, especially with below-average incomes were forced to move to selectively and savings, or even more defensive consumer behavior model, balancing their costs with a lower level of income”, — the expert believes. They reduced all their point of view, excessive spending, refused to expensive purchases, and the availability of funds lay in the personal “reserve funds” and “sovereign wealth funds”.
Now every family sets its own “fiscal rules”, strictly regulating the spending, according to Ostapkovich. Including such behavior helps people to accept difficult economic situation more calmly. Relatively low inflation and strengthen the ruble in recent times support this quite as much grown-up the price of oil, which exceeded the psychological mark of 50 rubles.per barrel.
September opened shopping
In September, the average Russian spent 528 RUB for one trip to the store — this amount is 3% less than the previous year, and almost 5% lower compared to September 2014. But compared with August, this is a significant growth of 6%, or 30 rubles, writes the research holding “ROMIR”.
However, in regional terms, the situation is ambiguous: the most significant contribution to the growth of the average check was made by the inhabitants of the Central region of Russia headed by the Muscovites, developing your one-time expenses of almost 10% compared to August. And the Siberians and inhabitants of the Far East, on the contrary, have reduced spending. The amount of the check is also seriously varies from Federal district: from 613 RUB in the northwestern Federal district to 429 RUB in the Urals.
From a certain increase of appetite of the Russians to win the shopping malls, where a cheque has fallen steadily since the beginning of the year, reminiscent of “ROMIR”. In September in large-format stores receipt grew by 11.3%.
However, we cannot yet say that this is a high figure: more checks played deep failure Aug. In other types of shops check rose a little more modest: 5.4% at discounters, 6.7% in supermarkets and by 7% in the shops of traditional Commerce.
Both buyers and sellers have quite adapted to the current market conditions and have adjusted their behavior, agrees Mikhail Fedulov, the financial Director of a network “I love.” “Over the past two months we have seen real growth check and traffic, and higher than the same periods of transition from summer to September of last year,” he says.
For the present optimism of the time: spending not even reached pre-crisis levels, notes the analyst of “ALOR Broker” Kirill Yakovenko. But on the plus side, he said, is that the growth check is not due to the price increase. Inflation in September was only 0.2 percent, he recalls.
So, apparently the Russians are beginning to believe in the passage of the peak of the crisis and the eventual recovery, the expert assumes.
“I note that we are talking about expectations, not about the present state of things as the rate of recovery of incomes of the population are still very low,” added Yakovenko. He said that the real incomes of the population in September was up 4.8% for the first time in 2013, but it’s still a “drop in the bucket” given the growth of poverty and the fact that the income of most of the population is comparable to the 2009 level.
