In that case, if the Russian economy will not be carried out structural changes and oil prices will not rise at least to 50 dollars per barrel, the country could face long-term stagnation. This scenario of Russian economy development for the period up to 2030 considered in the Ministry of Finance, learned to “Vedomosti”.
The inertial scenario of economic development without reforms suggests that the price of oil will remain at the level of 40 dollars per barrel, and the economy will grow only by 1 – 1.3% per year. To overcome the current two-year recession, Russia will need four years, and by 2030 the economy will grow only by 13% – as she grew up, for example, in the period from 2011 to 2013. The level of wages, which was the Russians in 2014, will return in 2025.
This option, however, the Finance Ministry did not consider the main. “There are others that we consider more correct for Russia and which involved the implementation of reforms,” said a source in the Ministry, stressing that it was all internal calculations of the Ministry, which are not official long-term forecast.
According to an unnamed Federal official, a key condition for a more positive scenario are structural changes, primarily the increased return on capital through productivity growth outstripping wage growth, and the increase in the share of investment in GDP. Such a maneuver, the source said, will require increasing the flexibility of the labour market, mobility of workers and investment in their retraining.
In the case of such measures, the economy will overcome the current downturn in 2018, and by 2030 will increase by 44 percent. Real wages of Russians will return to 2014 to 2022, and then will continue to grow at 3 percent per year. In absence of maneuver, the rate of economic growth almost in half slowly, and real GDP in 2030 by only 19%.
According to experts, outpacing productivity growth real if to reduce the share of government in the economy, to maintain conservative fiscal policies. But the main incentive for investment growth specialists see beyond the sphere of economic policy. “When cold war investments do not grow”, – said Natalia Akindinova from the development Center of the HSE.
Note that the previous forecast of economy development until 2030 was approved in 2013 and proved to be completely untenable because of the collapse of the oil market (the scenario envisaged the decline of oil prices to 80 dollars).
Currently revise their forecasts and the Central Bank. “We should proceed from the fact that low oil prices can be long. They put additional inflationary pressure,” said last week, the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina.
She saw three ways to reduce the volatility of the ruble: currency interventions at the expense of international reserves, the rebound in oil prices and the changing structure of the economy. “The third and, in my opinion, the best scenario is to diversify the economy,” she said, explaining that if the economy will be less dependent on oil, the ruble will cease to react to commodity prices. “It’s the longer, more difficult task, due not only to monetary and budgetary policy,” she explained.
