Will give fiscal policy a chance to stabilize the economy
Alex Gulakov
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The house of the government of the Russian Federation (Photo: Dmitry Astakhov/TASS)
6 Oct c.g. the government at its meeting approved the draft law on the adjustment of the Federal budget in 2016. Noteworthy that the budget deficit in the document increases to 3.66% of GDP, or 3,034 trillion. rubles. However, it also increased social spending and lower inflation.
A positive development can be called the improved rating of the size of the country’s GDP this year — 78,673 trillion. rubles to 82,815 trillion. rubles. Inflation, which is included in the calculation formula of key economic indicators, after last year’s collapse to 12.9% appears in the bill is quite optimistic figure of 5.8% (currently it is equal to 6.4%). The government deliberately divested himself from euphoria to rely now only on the constant increase of oil prices — and therefore pointed out the $ 40 per barrel (a decline of 10 points in comparison with the previous forecast of the Cabinet).
Thus, the total amount of budget revenues (subject to adjustments) will be closer this year, 13,368 trillion. For comparison, the originally adopted was based on the figure of 13,738 trillion. rubles. Expenditure increases — 16,098 trillion. rubles to 16,402 trillion.
As expected, the leaders of the list of items of expenditure — section “national defense”; it is increased by 735,16 billion rubles (up to 3,884 trillion). Apparently, criticism of the government from the opposition for neglecting the social sectors of the Treasury in favor of the interests of the military industrial complex and the security forces has not passed without a trace: stronger expenses on section “Social policy” that directly affects pensions and social benefits — section in your document plus 177,38 billion (in total dimension — 4,631 trillion. rubles).
Other sections yet to boast of the growth can not.
Cut like no other, section “national economy” — on 420,73 billion rubles (up to 2,173 trillion. rubles). In many respects this result was predictable, too many complaints in Parliament and in the expert community called the spending in this direction, where, in particular, often permanently left billions to the needs of large state-owned companies and several banks.
— Costs associated with banking interests, being masked under “national economy”, — said in an interview with “Novye Izvestia”, the Deputy of the state Duma of several convocations, doctor of economic Sciences Oksana Dmitrieva, in different years reach 30 to 50% of the costs that the layman will be considered as support of the national economy.
Alas, do not grow, and so far, only compressed — according to the bill, the cost of education, health, media. In the same sad series — articles like “debt service”, “interbudgetary transfers of General nature” (shrink — to 656,4 million rubles).
Total Federal budget deficit in 2016 could be more than planned by the same government: 3.9% of GDP, or 3.2 trillion. rubles.
— My personal perception of the bill is normal, because the unrealistic budget for 2016 was clearly visible already in February of this year, — says the head of a direction “Finance and Economics” Institute of contemporary development Nikita Maslennikov.
— A situation where the government now, without delay, to make proposals for its improvement, is predicted by many experts. And that by the autumn the budget, as they say, “I will go in all directions” — it was clear to experts at the end of 2015.
“SP”: – so, for now, could be worse?
— Yes, quite. Because the predictions that were made in the first half, was quite heavy. At the moment, it can be seen that in General economic growth rates, the position, even at minimum values, but corrected: III quarter finished with the decline in 0, 6%, and the fourth quarter of we, apparently, in the total annual value, though, and will finish with zero, but in the quarterly calculation of the possible increase of a few tenths of a percent. From what we can make a cautious conclusion that chances of recovery are not lost, and must preserve and increase. Yet, as you can see, the budget you have to “patch” all the available methods, revealing that the deficit in the beginning of the year was recorded at the level of 3.2%, then at around 3.7. This is not the limit, there is a feeling that it may be higher than this value, and some economists give forecasts at the end of the year 3.9.
Inflation — in the government draft rightly, I believe, a figure 5.8% – against the current of 6.4.
“SP”: – How, in your opinion, the most likely is the reduction of inflation by December?
Is achievable; somewhere with an accuracy of two to three per cent inflation rate on this designated bar at 5.8% and out. Expense — it would be wrong, from my point of view, to argue that their growth is linear; more signs of what is happening to their redistribution in the volume of примерно1 trillion. rubles. Significantly updated, the result of this redistribution, — closed part of the budget, providing the power unit, including the program Rosvooruzheniye, which launched. This is due, of course, the need to respond to the geopolitical situation, which is now, unfortunately, very tense and does not allow all of us to hope to reduce these risks. Significant funding is required to take out of the financial impasse, many enterprises of the military-industrial complex and their subcontractors. These expenses include, in particular, the volume of loans, which are urgently needed for the restructuring of the industry.
Another significant part of the cost is the transfers to the pension Fund, social benefits and a slight increase (this time) of transfers to the regions.
“SP”: — Why is there a decrease, in your opinion, provisions on section “national economy”?
Apparently, the government felt that to continue to direct considerable grants to support costly but ineffective in today’s environment a luxury; when no longer needed, and the possibility, due to the limits of the Central Bank at preferential rates to allocate money to Finance poor projects.
In addition, tangible is starting to remind myself a fiscal rule, earned in 2016 if, before 1 October funds programmed for any expenditure that had not been implemented, they are selected in favor of other, more important today expenditure purposes. It is not surprising that several hundred billion rubles – for this reason — next year will go to other budget locations.
“SP”: – Your overall assessment of fiscal policy?
— It would be wrong to say that it failed. It is not — in any case, this does not apply to what was done in that direction in 2016. Conducted budget maneuver in the “here and now” — just, in fact, when there is an urgent need it fast and done correctly, shows that in conditions of deep economic crisis, and the regime of sanctions and counter-sanctions, it is possible to achieve at least stabilization — term growth. In any case, the base of the fourth quarter out of recession we ensured we now come, with the I quarter of 2017, a phase of zero growth, i.e., stagnation. But it is qualitatively different state, when inflation last year reached almost 13% and volatility of oil prices was much stronger.
— While we are talking about government amendments to the 2016 budget, that is, of the current year, which is actually already completed, — says senior researcher of the Institute of strategic studies Nikolai Troshin.
And they, in General, objectively reflect what actually takes place. It is obvious that defense spending was by far the grow, in connection with our participation in the military conflict in Syria; therefore, I do not see the growth of this part of the cost of anything supernatural. Moreover, along with increasing defense spending and increase spending on Social policies. Please note that aggregate spending on social policy in the bill is significantly higher than even the cost of the entire national defense. We are talking about supporting the most vulnerable segments of the population; that, as they say, cannot be postponed. Much more fun to watch 17 October on the view the next, for 3-year budget — that’s where we will be able to speak about and possible new trends, and about their mistakes.
“SP”: – is Not whether one of these, almost the main mistakes that the government once again to the “backyard” of the budget process moves the health, education, culture?
— Here, I think, is not so clear situation. Of course it’s bad when the residual principle in relation to key social areas to overcome can not. But as far as, for example, the same education — it is necessary to first know basically what exactly to increase spending. When education and health go of the reorganization, the financier of the Duma or the government, it is important to know what the structure is, figuratively speaking, it is necessary to “pour” money. While clarity there is no such structure. But I think when the reorganization will be completed, the relevant expenditure will not be reduced.
