The draft law on the recognition of independence of Nagorno-Karabakh prepared by the deputies of the Armenian Parliament from the opposition faction Zaruhi Postanjyan (“Heritage”) and the ex-Prime Minister Hrant Bagratyan (Armenian national Congress).
At first, the Armenian media reported that the positive opinion about the new status of Nagorno-Karabakh, the government had approved without debate and presentations. According to Deputy foreign Minister of Armenia Shavarsh Kocharyan, the initiative of the deputies was the result of negotiations between Armenia and Karabakh.
It was expected that the Parliament will consider the bill at session of Parliament on 10 may, then the document would go to the signature to the President Serzh Sargsyan. However, by Thursday evening it became clear that it will not be included in the agenda. Moreover, it was found that the Armenian government did not approve the bill on recognition of independence of the breakaway Republic. It said the press Secretary of the Prime Minister, Gohar Poghosyan. According to her, the Cabinet said only that a decision will be made as a result of discussions between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh taking into account external factors.
Previously, the law on recognition of Karabakh has been rejected at the stage of consideration in the government, but now, after the April war, the situation could change in the opposite direction.
On the night of April 2 started “four-day war”: in the “counter-offensive”, as it is called in Baku, the Azerbaijani armed forces, they managed to repulse the Armenians several heights in Karabakh. Fighting using aircraft, artillery and tanks ended with the deaths of dozens of military and civilian on both sides. In Baku and Yerevan traditionally exchanged accusations of provocations, a new round of conflict has caused a powerful upsurge of patriotism in both countries.
Experts have called the most serious clashes over the past 22 years. Then the war ended with the occupation by Armenian forces of Karabakh and surrounding seven districts of the “security zone”. In may 1994 in Bishkek, an agreement was signed ceasefire. A negotiated settlement was achieved, the OSCE Minsk group, which in addition to the countries-opponents included Russia, France and the United States.
The international community, including Russia and Armenia, the NKR is not recognized. For 22 years the negotiations on the status of the region did not budge. From time to time on the border with Karabakh are clashes in recent years, increasingly with the use of heavy weapons.
As an ally in the CSTO Moscow should help Yerevan in case of threat to territorial integrity of the country, in the country there is a Russian military base. However, the fighting on the territory, whose status is not defined, moreover, Russia is trying to balance between two countries, selling weapons to both Yerevan and Baku.
Yerevan, which is critically dependent on Russian economic and financial assistance, attempts to use methods of political pressure on Baku. And when war exacerbations regularly threatens Azerbaijan to recognize the independence of the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic.
“Recognize Yerevan Karabakh or not, it all depends on situation development in political and military terms. This is essentially a bargain,” says a source close to the Armenian leadership.
“I do not doubt that the government will approve the bill. But government approval isn’t everything. Should the Parliament vote. So yeah, it’s an element of blackmail. Prior to the recognition of the NKR will not come, I think so,” — says the journalist of Azerbaijani newspaper “Echo” Nair Aliyev.
According to him, “recognition of NKR will mean that Armenia should quit the negotiation and war, no way”. It did not fail to hint Baku: Azerbaijan on the background of the news about the bill on Karabakh’s independence was mobilized and began preparations for a possible big war.
The signals from Moscow
And interlocutors in Armenia, and sources in Azerbaijan say that both sides waited for the signal from Moscow, which is considered the chief arbiter of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Judging by the statements of the Russian side, it is expected opposed the escalation of the military situation and a negative attitude to the bill on recognition of NKR.
This, apparently, forced Yerevan urgently to disown the initiative.
On Wednesday, may 4, in an interview with “Russia today,” Russian foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov once again stated that the political process and the peaceful settlement of Karabakh conflict has no alternative. He reminded that the project of recognition of Karabakh is only the initiative of individual members of Parliament of Armenia, and the status of the region must be defined in the context of the General agreement, and not unilaterally.
Press Secretary of Russian President Dmitry Peskov denied information that led Yerevan to Moscow the negotiations on the recognition of Karabakh. According to him, Moscow hopes that parties to the conflict will avoid any steps that could disrupt the truce is fragile and lead to escalation in Karabakh.
Why the pressure on Yerevan is not working
After a four-day war in early April, Azerbaijani experts said “Газете.Ru” that Moscow could seriously put pressure on Yerevan. In Baku was hoping for the return of the regions around Karabakh, occupied by Armenians at the end of the war in 90-ies.
Sources “Газеты.Ru” close to the Russian foreign Ministry, clarified that the return of some areas may take until the end of 2016.
However, judging by the tightening of the Armenian and Azerbaijani rhetoric and the latest bill on the NKR, this is still far away.
Moscow and Baku have underestimated the internal political situation in Armenia now and still badly represent it, says an expert on post-Soviet space by Arkady Dubnov. According to him, the leader of Armenia Sargsyan cannot afford to be slack before the foreign enemy and domestic opponents who accuse him of weakness for the demise of Azerbaijanis after the recent fighting.
“In Azerbaijan autocracy and the ruling regime no one objects. Therefore, the euphoria in Baku, which is accompanied by personal attacks of the leader of the country, calling the opponent a fascist country, this militaristic rhetoric only complicates the situation — says Dubnov. — From the standpoint of the forces of progress in the issue of peace is not achieved. Need extra confidence, but it does not arise before the advent of political will and the rejection of calls for blitzkrieg”.
