Before the U.S. election two months left. On 9 November we find out who became the next leader of the free world.
The fight for the White house entered its final phase.
Hillary Clinton support the mainstream media, the current President and almost all expertocracy. In addition, she collects and spends more money. Lack of political sponsors, the former Secretary of state does not feel.
Donald trump only in the second half of August began to purchase airtime for campaign commercials. And before that he relied heavily on propaganda via the Internet and mass rallies of his supporters.
Despite the fact that the press and major TV channels mostly are hostile to a Republican candidate, he managed to constantly stay in the media spotlight. Hillary in recent weeks, very little time is spent on the mind and only in the first days of September for the first time since the beginning of the year gave a press conference.
Ratings trump and Clinton are almost equal. However, to trust the polls this political season — a thankless task. Too different figures given by various agencies and too intense fluctuations in ratings. In mid-August, some studies have shown a benefit of Clinton in the 10-12 percentage points, and today, according to CNN/ORC, already ahead of trump by 1%.
Synthetic rating Real Clear Politics (at the end of August — beginning of September) gives the advantage of the former first lady, however, trump the gap from 8% in mid-August, declined today to 2.8%, which is within the statistical error.
In key swing States, which provide in the end the victory of one or another candidate, the ratings equal. In Iowa, Florida and Ohio, the difference in performance of trump and Hillary does not exceed one percent.
Methods of measurements of public opinion are regularly criticized. Trump’s supporters are confident that the major rating agencies are working with the wrong sample of respondents, which results Hillary be overstated. But the edition of The Washington Post argues that surveys are not accessible just to those who are going to vote for Clinton.
You need to take into account two circumstances.
First, socio-demographic electoral map of the USA with the entry into the race a non-system candidate trump has changed significantly. The accumulated years of technique rating agencies may simply be incorrect in the new environment.
Secondly, we should not forget that the ratings — the same election, political advertising. In conditions when the whole political establishment a United front opposed to one candidate, it is impossible to exclude and twist the results of polls.
Of course, a lot could clarify a presidential debate. The first intramural debate between Hillary and Donald will be held on September 26 in new York. All will be held three rounds of presidential debates, and once again will meet candidates for Vice-President.
September 7, held a kind of warm-up. Trump and Hillary took part in the so-called Forum, the Supreme commander organized by broadcaster NBC. Both candidates were interviewed separately by a moderator.
Discussed mainly questions of international politics and national security. The forum looked 14.7 million people. The result of a survey of TV viewers stunned many: 60% of respondents felt that the victory was won by Donald trump.
The debate will be a serious test for Hillary, which until this time was in greenhouse conditions. Her opponent in the primaries, Bernie Sanders, almost did not attack Clinton and refused to discuss the scandal surrounding the private mail server ex-Secretary of state.
Of course, trump is such an easy walk Hillary won’t allow it. In the record of the former first lady too many vulnerabilities: improper handling of official electronic correspondence, and at least a conflict of interest, and even just a corruption scheme around the Clinton Foundation, and the Libyan adventure ended in disaster in Benghazi.
In recent years, increasingly discussing the health of Hillary. Just this week the ex-Secretary of state three times in public happened severe bouts of coughing.
At a campaign event in Cleveland she couldn’t start his speech for nearly 10 minutes. First this year’s open dialogue with journalists on Board the aircraft campaigns) were also interrupted because of cough, which she could not relieve. A day later, Clinton began to choke cough in a live radio, so I had to declare an unscheduled break on advertising.
Hillary explains these bouts of seasonal Allergy, which is mentioned in an open letter to her attending physician. Her enemies, of course, suspect something much more serious. Press remembered also that sometimes bad Clinton manages to keep the balance. The whole world saw a photograph of former Secretary of state almost on hands make the stairs in her house.
By law, even a very sick man can become the President of the United States. The health issue is not regulated by the Constitution. Candidates published letters from their doctors — a tribute to tradition. But for the voter the health of the Supreme commander — factor is important.
And here’s the question: not bring a feeling Ms. Clinton at the debate?
There was even a conspiracy theory that Hillary was faking a cough, to the last moment to abandon the debate. Then the allergies miraculously pass, and ex-Secretary of state, to avoid head to a showdown with Big Donald, will continue its campaign in the same vein, appearing little in public and throwing the TV channels antithrombosis advertising.
Recently, much of this advertising was dedicated to the “friendship” by Donald with Vladimir Putin and the Russian footprint in hacking the servers of the National Committee of the Democratic party. The main message is that trump welcomes the one who encroached on American democracy.
No direct evidence of Russian assistance was provided, but more importantly.
It turned out that the exploitation of the topic of Vladimir Putin and Russia does not interfere with Donald Trump to raise your rating. It seems that the old spell of the terrible Russian ceased to operate at least half of American voters.
And this is perhaps the main good news from overseas.
