Barrel celebrated the anniversary
Alexey Topalov, Elena Platonova
Sergei Karpukhin/Reuters
The barrel has been steadily increasing for more than a week and reached a landmark $50. The factors influencing the price of oil, mixed. Experts say that the increase is in any case short-lived, and the impact is speculative and in the near future we should expect a return of the rates to $45 per barrel.
Oil prices broke the psychological barrier of $50 per barrel. This figure was achieved for the first time since July 5. In the course of morning trading on the Intercontinental exchange (ICE) in London on Thursday, the price of October futures for Brent crude (which is pegged to the price of Russian Urals) rose 0.25% to $repossessed a 50.01.
Another impetus to the quotations given data U.S. Department of energy published on Wednesday.
According to them, the commercial oil stocks of the States for the week ended 12 August, fell by 2.5 million barrels per day (-0.5%) and amounted to 521,1 million barrels. The analysts polled by Bloomberg, predicted increase 0,522 million barrels.
But while production in the US over the same period rose by 1.79% (152 thousand barrels per day) and amounted to 8,597 million barrels a day. Mixed production figures and inventory levels has led to the fact that the $50 quotes did not last long and by 11 MSK went below that mark.
However, the oil is consistently rising since August 10 (when the price of a barrel was $43,83). In the last few days of quotes was influenced by two factors. At the end of last week published statistics of one of the world’s leading oilfield services company Baker Hughes, according to which the number of active drilling rigs in the oil sector of the USA at the end of last week rose by 15 points and reached 396 pieces (for comparison: at the peak, which occurred in October 2014, their number amounted to 1,609 units). Baker Hughes data served as a deterrent to price increases.
However, on Monday, the barrel has gained more than 2% on the head of the Russian Ministry of energy Alexander Novak, who said that “the door to continue negotiations based on freezing the level of oil production. — “Газета.Ru”) remains open in the event of such a need.”
Novak said this in an interview with the Saudi newspaper “al-Sharq al-Awsat,” adding that Russia intends to continue the dialogue on the stabilization of markets and are ready to wide coordination on this issue and develop joint measures to stabilize the world oil markets. Provided that these measures “will have a short-term nature, and will provide long-term cycle payback”.
The words of the Russian Minister was received by the market as a signal that the probability of agreement fixing the level of production between Russia and OPEC countries are much higher than expected.
On Tuesday, Novak said that the dialogue between Russia and the Organization of countries — exporters of oil will take place in October in Vienna.
Earlier it was reported that the issue of the freeze can be lifted at the end of September, during the World energy Congress in Algeria. Currently, the adoption of measures to stabilize the market most advocates of Venezuela, whose economy is more than 90% dependent on oil.
But the chances that the leaders of the world come to agree about the freezing, small. In April, the negotiations on this issue failed, although the price of a barrel at the time of negotiations was below $43.
The partner of company RusEnergy Mikhail Krutikhin said that the growth of quotations in recent times mostly due to speculative tendencies in the market, but fundamentally nothing has changed.
“Supply exceeds demand is stable, so you should expect a return of prices to around $45 per barrel, the expert predicts. — That, most likely, will be the average price for the year 2016”.
The ruble is reaching for the barrel. Amid rising oil prices at the beginning of trading in London the dollar on the Moscow stock exchange has decreased on 0,58%, to 63,45 Euro — 0,28%, to RUB 71,85 However, by 12.00 GMT, the dollar rose to 63.66 rubles, Euro RUB to 72.1
In General, the increase in oil prices over the past week several have strengthened the ruble. On 11 August, the dollar reached 64,94 RUB, EUR — RUB 72,42
Additional support the ruble had published on the eve of the U.S. Federal reserve service (FRS). The materials for the July meeting of the American regulator investors saw confirmation of their predictions: hurry up with the fed’s rate hike plans. Several members suggested that the Committee probably will have enough time to react to a faster than expected at present, rising inflation, and chose to postpone the next increase in the Federal funds rate until, until they are more confident that inflation is approaching a steady 2%”, — stated in the Protocol.
Such rhetoric once again returned to the investment attractiveness of risky assets, and hence the developing economies.
