The head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina announced the beginning of economic growth in Russia. Earlier, similar statements were made by the representatives of the economic block, in particular, in February spoke about it the Minister of economic development Ulyukayev. Whether Russia is emerging from the crisis? This was stated by the Director of the Institute of contemporary Economics Nikita Isaev.
Optimistic of saulnierville of the Central Bank was well received media. What data it is based, if there is enough animetitle? What can you say about the end of recession?
— Let’s try to understand what led to the opportunity to make such statements. The recession is a systemic prolonged fall in the rate of industrial production, services, lasting at least six months. All the signs were there, in Russia it was.
The recession began with the sanctions that were imposed against Russia. The real sanctions are the fall of our main export product, crude oil followed by natural gas. We have for the past year the fall in GDP of 3.7 percent. Currently, various economic institutes, Higher school of Economics, Central Bank, Ministry of economic development also predicts a decline, but somewhat less than expected.
If the average on this year’s expected 1.5 percent, now say that Russia’s economy will fall by 0.5 percent. And in the summer, if measured in annual terms, many of the indicators had positive results.
First and foremost, as stated by Elvira, the basic policy of the Central Bank is curbing inflation as the main socio disorienting the population increased. Indeed, if last year inflation was 12.7 percent, this year we have a little over three percent year on year (3-3. 5 percent for various groups of goods). That is, in other words, we even improved the performance compared with pre-crisis times.
The Central Bank managed its high enough rate to contain inflation and strengthen the ruble, even taking into account fluctuations in oil prices. This is the first. Second, in the summer there was deflation, mainly for food items, where there is a seasonal component.
This is a seasonal story, but it was not fixed in Russia for more than five years. On the other hand, it is cheating, if you take items such as potatoes. For example, it increased from the beginning of year on 40%, carrots rose by 37 percent, other fruits and vegetables has risen by tens of percent. Now the rebound in prices, deflation is approximately 0.1 percent.
Obviously there are moments that are associated with specific advantages in certain areas, and industries and services. First, the volume of shipments rose 1.6 percent in 2016. But he slipped last year, so a fairly low base last year are now allowed to show some growth.
Showed an increase of some positions in the service sector, but also not by tens of percent, and on tens percent. Economy in the manufacturing sector shows that growing export-oriented direction, the export of timber and processed forest increases, the volume of exports of fishery products and products of petrochemical industry. That is where there is a component associated with foreign currency export revenue, there has been increasing because of the devaluation of the ruble, which we received.
Import growth took place only in the agricultural industry. This year she also showed slightly more than one percent of growth, because it is secured by protectionist measures — a counter-sanctions. These positive figures gave the Central Bank the opportunity in General to say that the recession is completed.
— However, in your opinion, to celebrate and rest on our laurels before?
— First, the statements that we have passed the crisis that it did not, heard from the very beginning of this crisis. Secondly, I want to remind you that the summer 2014, and 2015 and 2016 are characterized by a relative increase in the price of oil.
When some economists or politicians begin to declare that the ruble is trading mixed against the oil is wrong. There is a definite correlation of 20 percent, but it is insufficient to say that the ruble rid of oil. He continues to be attached to her.
The ruble, in my opinion, extremely overvalued right now, that is, its rate in relation to oil, which now stands at 63-65 rubles, is likely artificial restraint, with the basis of political reality. I want to remind you that the budget is formed mainly due to export earnings, and it the ruble. Of course, the budget is irrelevant to the currency, fill our budget for 91 percent of the Federal tax service and Federal customs service.
The Federal tax service of the gleaning of about eight percent over six months, that is 42 percent instead of 50 planned. The Federal customs service dropped 13 percent. Now the Russian budget has a planned deficit of 2.2-2.5 trillion rubles, but most likely, the deficit will grow to four trillion rubles.
Let me remind you that the expenditure budget is about 16 trillion rubles, and revenues — by 13.5 trillion roubles, and the volume will increase. In other words, the state reduces its costs, while not conducting a formal budget sequestration, because it means as there are none. The budget deficit is paid off is not due to the fact that the ruble is devalued, but at the expense of the reserve Fund. It decreased from us $ 90 billion to 32 billion at the moment. That is, it dipped to 70 percent.
Many economists now claim that in 2017, the Reserve Fund will be exhausted. Let me remind you that the Reserve Fund is a relatively small part of our reserves. We have national wealth Fund, about 70-80 billion dollars, we have foreign exchange reserves, which are placed in various foreign instruments — more than 80 percent in Treasury bonds of the United States, the rest in France, Germany, Japan and so on. But it’s our emergency reserve, which is not in the economy.
Most likely, after the election we will have to devalue the ruble. And largely that information the situation we had before the election, represented the pre-election situation, which plays into the ruling party — to show stability, to demonstrate the possible economic growth.
And most importantly, I would like to note that the crisis is not only macroeconomic indicators, but also the quality of life of the population. This year real disposable incomes in the country taking into account tax deductions and other payments, grocery cart, and so forth, decreased, despite the fact that, formally, in rubles salary increased by eight percent over the past year and was now about 38.5 thousand roubles.
In the first half revenues declined by five percent. In other words, the continuing drop in incomes and increase in the stratum of citizens who are below the poverty line. If last year we recorded in the amount of 23 million people, or about 15 percent of the population, but this year, obviously, this figure will rise. More than two percent, increase unemployment, and hidden unemployment — is also. Growing informal sector, since the major reform of our state associated with the introduction of new, additional taxes. This leads to the fact that the money goes into the envelopes. This, in turn, reduces revenues.
— At the St. Petersburg international economic forum, which was the beginning of summer, Vladimir Putin has set the task that, ideally, in the coming years, GDP grew by four percent per year. Whether this figure is realistic, and under what conditions?
— Let me remind you, Putin, when in 2000 was elected President, set the task for ten years increase by ten percent annually. We increased it, in my opinion, at 94 percent, then we fell because of the crisis in 2008, and it turned out that we only 47 percent increase. Therefore, four percent that it sounded fairly reasonable.
Of course, the President understands that to ensure that this growth is at the expense of internal reserves would be difficult, and perhaps impossible, because the modern economy is a deeply post — industrial economy. The productive forces in Russia are inferior to the US in 2.5 times, we have the level of productive forces — $ 25 per hour, and in the United States — $ 67, For comparison, in Europe — $ 90 per hour, and, in General, the EU — $ 65. In other words, we still continue to turn the nut, engage the screwdriver production, use, physical labor, and there have long been used nanotechnology.+
Accordingly, we need economic reforms to reduce dependence on exports of hydrocarbons. It is very important to find other sources of income at the expense of internal reserves at the expense of growth of the purchasing power of the population. It is also necessary the development of production at the expense of those vacuums that we receive in connection with a reduction in the volume of imported competitive production.
The third change — change of administrative reform, since tax intergovernmental fiscal system is such that it does not create motivation or for small and medium business or for regions or municipalities. This should definitely be changed. Plus, of course, need a compromise and a departure from the sanctions war, because Russia is a global player in the world. You can not be in vacuum and to grow in their own economy, especially on such spaces, largely still undeveloped.
Finally, in my opinion, it is necessary to determine the development strategy of the country. It is not, her writing is postponed to 2019. You need to understand where we’re going. It can be agriculture, it could be logistics, it could be building a common economic space with the CIS countries, India, Iran. In the near future, within ten years, the world will divide between the US and China.
Already, the United States, which absorb Europe, plus Canada is a third world economy. China is already 20 percent of the world economy, and China continues to grow. Russia with its 1,7 percent will be behind, if not will be able to integrate these interests. This is a critical time in the external history.
