As reported by the monthly newsletter “Russian market of production and consumption of coking coals”, enterprises of Kuzbass in January-August 2016 increased coal production by 9%. This means that the miners of the Kemerovo region in January-August, issued on-mountain 148,2 million tons of coal.
In the whole country, the production of coal in the first eight months of this year, according to the Central dispatching management of energy, increased by 6% compared to the same period last year. Produced 250,701 million tons of coal, while exports amounted to 108,227 million tons, 8% more than in January-August of 2015.
Increase production of coking coal comes amid rising prices. So, for the period from 13 August to 12 September, the gains exceeded 50%, reaching $ 185./ton “FOB Australia”. Thus, from the beginning, the anthracite rose in price more than doubled — 126%. If we compare the dynamics of the coking coal futures, gold and silver over the last four years, coal was the margin commodity.
Of course, formed a favorable situation was for the Russian business life-giving balm, although in 2014, the miners shouted “all is lost”. The current prices are, apparently, fascinating business.
September 13, Information-publishing service “metal supply and sales reported that “Raspadskaya coal company commenced mining of coking coal valuable brand, the COP at the mine “alardinskaya” in the industrial 3-39 lava at a depth of 325 m. the Reserves of this area are estimated at 2.9 million tons. This coal is exported not only to the coking plants of South-East Asia, but also in Ukraine.
Almost simultaneously with the news of the JSC “Siberian coal energy company (SUEK), the largest producer of thermal coal in Russia, expressed its willingness to invest 21.5 billion rubles in Apsatski cut coking coal in Zabaikalye territory. The source of financing, the investor was not disclosed. However, the final decision will be made to them at the end of 2016. If all goes according to plan, the company intends to increase production at Apsatsky to 3 million tons per year.
Recall Apsatskoe field is extremely difficult terrain and the lack of energy infrastructure. Adds to his appeal to the high seismicity of the area and harsh climate. And yet under the current trends, the project looks viable.
Another 7 billion rubles to increase coal mining in Denisovsky Chulmakansk and deposits, as well as to expand capacity of GOK Inaglinsky” (Yakutia) is allocated to the development Fund of the Far East — according to the signed contract with a group of “Colmar”.
Win, and “Mechel”, which, having in 2009, $ 3.5 billion of debt, has purchased the coal business Bluestone (Delaware, USA) for 436 million dollars, and in 2015 he sold his previous owner for 5 million dollars. And that’s American Depositary receipts (ADR) Mechel on the new York stock exchange are growing by leaps and bounds, rising from 26 August to 70%.
So, the demand for coal primarily coking, growing. The troublemaker that caused the unprecedented hype, was China. Contrary to the current stereotype that the middle Kingdom is illegible in environmental issues, Beijing started the company to reduce emissions. At the beginning of September it became known that China in this year has reduced coal production by 150 million tons. By the way, the Eastern giant in 2015 produced every second tonne of coking coal in the world. In other words, we are talking about huge volumes. For comparison: according to the World Coal Association, Russia exported in 2014, 22 million tons of coke and 133 million tonnes of thermal coal.
As for domestic demand in Russia, it has been a trend to reduce the consumption of coal. This is due, primarily, with the introduction of new capacity coal-fired power plants. So, in 2015, earned coal-fired units with a capacity of 225 MW at Cherepetskaya GRES, Berezovskaya GRES with the capacity of 800 MW, CCPP of Serovskaya GRES 420 MW is only 1.6 GW, is derived at the same time high-cost of 1.2 GW. Though a generation older, but coal requires less.
With all of this negativity can be seen, caused by the use of technologies that tomorrow will be obsolete. In the country, alas, is not produced by the equipment operating on superovercritical steam parameters, we do not have gasification of coal. However, following the modernization of this lag will be overcome, then coal will need less.
In General, the current coal production from an environmental point of view “not good”. Although from the standpoint of “primitive” capitalism, this strategy is optimal, it is not aimed at deep processing of coal. Meanwhile, anthracite you can get up to 130 types of chemicals are now purchased abroad. We are talking about materials with value added in hundreds, and even thousands of times the price of coal.
But to build a plant for deep processing of coal in Russia will not, though, because our “business” has learned to live in conditions of low prices, forcing the workers to tighten belts more tightly. This contributes to the sluggish political will of the regional authorities, and, most importantly, the position of “temporary worker” — the current Russian capitalists. In the end, survived the 2008-2009 and 2014-2015, will be gone, and then, they say.
Meanwhile, experts, including Russian ones, say that $ 185 per tonne coking coal — overkill, due to a strike in India. Most likely at the end of the year we will see $ 110-140. Moreover, the fall of Chinese coal production is unlikely to be “long-playing record”. So, not far off the new price drop, and even more dangerous.
It became known that the new government of Mongolia is planning to accelerate the development in the southern Gobi desert of a giant coal Deposit Tavan Tolgoi with reserves of 7.5 billion tonnes of coking coal. Ulaanbaatar, faced with an acute shortage of foreign currency, has stepped up negotiations national Corporation Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi (ETT) with a Chinese state-owned mining company Shenhua Group and the Japanese Sumitomo Corp.
In this September, it was reported that the legislative obstacles nationalists form of non-foreign investors, apparently, overcome. The fact that after the June elections to the new Parliament have not been members that a few years ago blocked a deal with a consortium of Sumitomo-Shenhua. But the majority of the Mongolian people’s party, by contrast, is extremely interested in this deal.
In order to fill the world with cheap coke, you have only $ 4 billion and the Chinese experience. This explains the decrease in national production. China, being the main investor, of course, is to buy coal from the Gobi desert. It is not excluded that China will export from Mongolia of enriched raw material in Russia. Who would deny Beijing the more the WTO will be on his side?
Anticipating a potential drop in world coal prices in the medium term, the Institute of problems of natural monopolies, believes that “the main mechanisms of development (Russian — ed.) coal market have become a deep processing of coal and coal chemistry”.
But with this we have a problem.
