The Agency acknowledged the sad prospects of the Russian economy
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First Deputy Finance Minister Tatyana Nesterenko (in the foreground) (Photo: Valery sharifulin/TASS)
If the economy is to change nothing, next year will have nothing to pay salaries, and young families with children are the poorest layer of the Russian society. This is the meaning of the first Deputy Minister of Finance Tatyana Nesterenko, which are still actively discussed in the press and blogosphere. People are struck not so much the rating, but the fact that it was made by the responsible official.
Revelations Tatyana Nesterenko broke out on the forum “Territory meanings — 2016”. The content of the speech was like the speech of an opposition politician, but not the first Deputy Chairman of the Agency responsible for the country’s finances. Moreover, on the eve of parliamentary elections.
“If nothing changes, by the end of next year we will not have reserves nor the ability to pay salaries, we will have serious economic problems. The public sector is our main internal challenge,” said Nesterenko. According to her, when oil and gas revenues “flowed”, it was difficult to resist t the temptation to spend money on large-scale projects, to raise salaries and pensions. “Our economy on this scale in which there are now, not respond to our commitments, which we gathered and which we must fulfill”, — said the Deputy Minister.
But even more frankly, she told about what did not dare to say, many opposition members. “The poorest in Russia, about 37 per cent of the total poor, are young families that have two children. They have no shelter, they still did not create anything. You need to create the conditions for the poor among the young was not. Need to the woman quickly went to work, it needs kindergartens and so on”, — he diagnosed the present state of Affairs Nesterenko.
And if you think about it in her words, it becomes obvious the whole injustice of the current economic relations. After all, what young family with two or more children? As a rule, educated people, good people, full of energy and willing to apply for the benefit of the country. But today they are the poorest. Given the size of the subsistence minimum, we can conclude that they do not have enough food and they are forced to live in a constant state of dire need.
But most importantly — many fathers of poor families actually earn quite well. But, not having own housing, have the lion’s share of income to give to cover high interest rates on your mortgage or apartment rent. As a result, the most active citizens there comes frustration — resentment against a society and a loss of motivation to do something…
— Money the government does not, its projects are ineffective, and all will be sad without broadening the tax base, — I agree with the assessment of the DeputyProfessor of the Department of economic policy of Saint-Petersburg state University Gennady Alpatov.
— The tax base can grow only thanks to private business. Therefore, it is necessary to give freedom to enterprise, to protect his establishment of an independent judicial system. This is all well-known things. It is necessary not to increase the tax burden, namely, to expand the tax base. Then there will be money in the budget, about three years later.
“SP”: — In your opinion, necessary measures will be taken?
— Now the government prints money and thereby raises inflation. Just devalued money to Supplement the budget. It was like putting on an eye mask and think that all is well. The figures of receipts to the Treasury grow, but prices grow faster. Perhaps we were the only country, which began in the late 1980s, “perestroika” and which is constantly inflation above 10%. This long-term inflation means that the government just continues to print money impaired. And this government will do, probably, in the future.
“SP”: — whether from poverty to snatch young families?
— The Soviet recipe of increasing fertility. Was the state subsidy, at about 30-35% for the whole range of baby products (diapers, baby food). Raising a child cost a lot cheaper than it is now. Subsidized goods directly through enterprises of light and textile industry. Subsidized school uniform, provided free textbooks. Today all products for parents to pay in full. A child is born, accordingly, the family’s income in the calculation of a person are drastically reduced.
To some extent, the government proposes to use the Soviet experience, speaking about the opening of kindergartens and early release of young women to work. But who will babysit? A key figure here — the grandmother, who is retiring at age 55. But now I propose to raise the retirement age, means that children will have no one to sit. In Soviet times, was a comprehensive approach to the problem, and the current policy is extremely contradictory.
As for the problem of housing for young families, it is necessary to focus on global practice. In the world there are two trends. The first — the de-urbanization. People are given land, and exempted them more tax so that the people themselves built the house. As a result, the population is evenly spread over the territory rather than concentrated in the cities, as we have. See an example of a reasonable policy in the United States. The second trend — the market moves to rental housing. You may recall our pre-revolutionary history, when even Pushkin rented an apartment in St. Petersburg, on the Moika river, on the ground floor.
We have set a goal to develop the market of low-rent housing to rent was cheaper of your own apartment. This increases labour mobility. The state must help business to build a profitable at home.
— Tatiana Nesterenko does not fully correspond to reality, — says Professor of the Academy of labour and social relations Andrei Gudkov.
— By and large, the words of Deputy Minister is a “response” to the uninformed public and people with weak nerves. A “response” it would be logical to hear on the waves of voice of America”. Our Ministry of Finance successfully replace “enemy voices”, reminding if not the same, then worse.
Yes, now again the downward trend in oil prices. The export duty will have to be reduced, which will reduce revenues. But this is not the first downward trend, they usually give way to ascending. You just need to have patience.
If we model the development of the economy fix based on nothing assumption that the price of oil falls to $ 30 per barrel and export duties do not where to borrow, then reserves are really exhausted. But the oil should rise in price.
“SP”: — How to fix the situation with young families?
— It is necessary to stop to dismantle the system of social protection of motherhood and childhood. Now we are discussing the question of the introduction of personal income tax on maternity benefits. Turns out that is 100% people will get 87% of the previous amount. If you act in such a logic, the demographic situation is complicated.
Of course, we have a very expensive mortgage.
Thirdly, it is necessary to resolve the issue of low wages for women in General and for young people.
Fourth, it was impossible to shift as many social obligations to regional budgets. Many of them are in a deplorable state, and the regions are not able to help young families.
The current situation is unacceptable. Nesterenko correctly identified the problem, and requires discussion of measures that must be taken at the level of regions and the Federal center.
At the same time it is necessary to return gosobvinenie children’s products. And we need to think about import substitution, the production of children’s goods in Russia. But this question rests on investment, and no investment due to the export of funds abroad by large corporations. And they do it not because are bad, they just need to give credit, which received nearly $ 600 billion.
