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The Ministry of economy predicts a never-ending deterioration


Forecast of the office of the speaker involves the permanent reduction of income

Минэкономики предрекает нескончаемое ухудшение
Andrey Ivanov

<source srcset=”/p/143687/m-143687.jpg” media=”(min-width: 428px) and (max-width: 671px)”/><source srcset=”/p/143687/l-143687.jpg” media=”(min-width: 672px)”/>Минэкономики предрекает нескончаемое ухудшение
Photo: AP/TASS

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The Ministry of economic development prepares a forecast of development of the country until 2019. As reported by”Vedomosti”, the current forecast for 2016-18 years outdated, and by April, the Ministry must submit to the new government. And, apparently, it will be significantly worse than the previous. The main message — the need to survive, making no effort at structural reform of the economy.

A new document will be drawn up on the basis of low oil prices. It is assumed that the average price will be 35 dollars per barrel this year, 40 the next and 45 in 2018 and 2019.

Indicated the need for budget savings. In practice, this would mean that all subsequent years pensions will be indexed only by 4%. Given that even optimistic projections for inflation are higher (7.7% in 2016 and 5.5% in 2019). It is known that the increase in food prices is faster (and luxuries in retirement do not buy), respectively, our elders will be three years to live significantly worse.

It will be tough and public sector employees: by 2019 their salaries will not grow at all. Will be frozen and funded part of pensions.

Will remain at the same level relative to GDP spending on education, culture and medicine. Since, according to the forecast, GDP will decline, we will fall and costs.

Simply put, prices will rise and incomes will fall. And this is the essence of the new Outlook, which prepares the Ministry of economic development. If earlier we were convinced that we only need to endure one year, and then start economic recovery, though weak, now we must prepare for the fact that in the next three years the belt will have to tighten all the tighter.

Worse, no measures to develop the economy. It turns out that all the words about import substitution, the construction of new enterprises and remained words.

Does not bother the officials of the Ministry and that the leadership of the country puts a completely different problem. This week Dmitry Medvedev has approved a plan under which the state should support employment in the regions. Yes, and “may decrees” of the President aimed at improving the life, no one has canceled.

— I am convinced that the government will follow the path outlined for the Ministry of economic development, says Professor of Economics Ivan Rodionov.

— Moreover, the last five years the Cabinet of Ministers was going along it, and wind up not going. The current economic model is completely adequate to reality, leads to the collapse of the national economy. We see the lack of economic growth and decline.

“SP”: — But the Prime Minister signed a plan to increase domestic demand.

— Anti-crisis plan and so have been budgeted, no element of novelty there. And there is no hope that increasing domestic demand will contribute to the development of the economy. According to official statistics, the share of all income from oil and gas in GDP is only 9%. The price of oil fell twice, this means that GDP should fall by 3%. All the talk about what the country “needs to kick the oil habit” is ridiculous. Because the government cannot collect taxes on 90% of the economy! And cannot reasonably dispose of collected taxes. Changing the government doesn’t want any. The plan of the Ministry of economic development confirms that the deadlock search is not going.

The government is implementing a “verbal intervention”. Simply messing with the heads of citizens. We were told that everything will be fine. That we should all raise hands to heaven and pray: “Freebie, come back”. Then, they say, something positive will happen. But, as you can see, not happened.

It is unclear why we need such a large state involvement in the economy. Why do we need a huge state-owned companies that have proved their complete incapacity. We see huge salaries of top managers, weak performance. But the managers don’t want to leave, feel irreplaceable.

“SP”: — But to endlessly feed people with promises impossible.

What makes you think that? The Latin American experience shows that social upheaval will not. The maximum that may be harmless “marches of the empty pots”. All of the protest wave which have been in the last five years, were few. And all are convinced that it is pointless to do something. So the “rot” we will be long enough.

“SP”: — Only our country is not the only one on the planet, there is competition between States.

— I’m not afraid that somebody will take them. The existence of nuclear weapons is a good warranty. All this horror stories. In 1950-60-e people have been told that it is important to avoid war, but the difficulties can be tolerated. And now we are told that if the people in power will change, the country will perish. I believe that will not perish. The same China is much cheaper Africa, the last 20 years he invested there and not in Russia. To live beyond the Polar circle no one wants.

We are afraid of an outside threat, the people suffered. Actually, it is unclear why tens of millions of people must suffer for the happiness of thousands of families that even money can’t reasonably dispose of.

— The government continues to seek monetary methods for solving all problems, — said General Director of the Russian centre of living standards Vyacheslav Bobkov.

— The government provides assistance to financial institutions. But material production, the real economy remains in the background. Just like people, caring for them must be a priority.

It is necessary to reduce the costs and to think about the growth of labor productivity. Demand should be driven by solvency citizens. So, it is necessary to increase real incomes. Then come to life and industry. In my opinion, little attention is paid to labor Economics.

If we change the approach to solving problems, the country will have a chance to quickly overcome the crisis.

Of course, it is very important people’s trust in the authorities ‘ actions. The government must understand that there is a huge mistrust from the society. Because all the difficulties are passed on to the lower links. To begin reform from the top need to reduce the state apparatus, reduce paperwork, which officials have filled up all the primary organizations. You must stop any conversion that is not directed to the good, and only imitate the activities of the officials. For example, don’t need to present the merging of higher education institutions. No one can understand, what goals it pursues, the more that the quality of education falls.

Of course, it is necessary to fight corruption. She is not domestic in nature and linked to the interests of the rich layer. Full of “bread” places that are designed for bait. As a result, young people lost the motivation to learn something.

The authorities should consider how she is honest with people. Honesty power — a powerful intangible something to leverage people didn’t give up and invested in the economy of its potential.

“SP”: — How long our people will be able to endure the deterioration of living?

— I am not a politician, and scientist. Deal only with the development of proposals. But the deterioration of living and “belt-tightening” may not be infinite. This government must feel. I think this is the time when there should think.

In the end, we have a President. He understands the situation. Just hard to change something, to refuse the services of people who wear the current paradigm. But you need to decide on personnel changes, reforms of state structures. It’s not easy, but necessary.

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