Yesterday the news proudly reported that Russia, together with Saudi Arabia and Venezuela have agreed to freeze oil production. Speculators on the news sped up the price of oil by almost 10%.
At the moment you would have thought that he crisis is over and the price of oil of 100 it’s a matter of time. But do not fall in optimism about this, because these agreements actually worthless! It so happened that the economies of all these countries completely dependent on oil prices. And that agreement is mere hot air. Let’s look at the situation.
In the crisis of 80th years, to keep the oil at acceptable price levels, the Saudis were cutting oil production. And thus they have lost two thirds of their market. Will they repeat their mistakes? I think not. Moreover, that Russia maintains in Syria is not really necessary for the Saudi policy. So this partnership is very doubtful.
Statistics released from China. Imports in China fell for the first time in a long time. The world economy falls. Oil buy less. Need to make a clarification, this agreement only to freeze oil production, and not even on the reduction… for Example, I voted against such an agreement, Azerbaijan…
But don’t forget about Iran, who has just returned to the game in the oil market. The country has long waited for the moment to finally capitalize on their mineral resources…
And another point about which few people speak. Do you have this agreement in place any mechanisms of control and the impact on offenders? Such a mechanism! That is, agreement by agreement, and money separately. Will produce as much as needed and no one to control it will not. T
So what can you conclude? In terms of this meeting and the decisions taken there became the catalyst for the growth of oil is almost negligible. Fluctuations in the oil market will be in both directions. The current price range will remain for quite a long time. At least the price on 100$ a barrel is possible and not to dream. In the near future this will not be exact.
But most importantly, even if oil reaches your desired price level, the economy of Russia it will not help. At all signals and the Ministry of Finance, and former Minister of Finance Kudrin. And even the head of the Central Bank Nabiulina said that stabilizing the ruble without diversification of the economy is impossible. In General, the time has come when you need to carry out reforms, and retreat is impossible, for us Moscow Russia!
