The Ministry of economic development of the Russian Federation amounted to three Outlook for the Russian economy in 2017-2019. Each of them describes the options of stagnation, the newspaper “Vedomosti”.
The publication reports that the document was presented to Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. It contains three options – “basic”, “basic+” and “target”. High GDP growth rate are included only in the “target” version, they reach 4.5% in 2019. Two other options involve the growth by 0.6-2.4 percent.
The forecast for the current year matches the current Ministry of economic development or minus 0.6% of GDP, the document says. Budget in 2016-2019 for all three variants of the forecast will be a deficit that involves the spending of reserves, borrow (both domestically and abroad) and to use privatization.
The forecast also includes the expectations of capital outflows from the country. So, in 2017, the capital outflow is projected at $20 billion, in subsequent years, according to experts, the rate will drop to $18 billion in 2018 and to $16 billion in 2019. Public sector wages to rise in this period will not be scheduled to maintain existing rates of teachers, doctors and researchers that have been guaranteed may decrees.
According to the new forecast, inflation in 2019 will not fall to the target level of 4% and will reach 4.1%. Forecast of GDP in 2019 instead of 101.4 trillion roubles is projected at the level of 98.3 trillion rubles, the dollar rate instead of the previously provided 62.7 ruble will amount to 64.4 rubles. Meanwhile, in the new baseline forecast a reduced inflation rate for the year 2016 (from 6.5 to 5.8%) and growth in real disposable income in 2019, the new version will be 1.3% instead of 1.1%. However, for 2016 and 2017, the forecast of this index is also reduced: in this year and 2.8% to 5.6 per cent, and in 2017, its growth is projected at 0.5% instead of 0.7%.
According to the Newspaper.<url>”, the base variant of the forecast, the Ministry believes are conservative and do not involve a fundamental change in economic growth model, it is based on the price of oil at $40 a barrel. The option “basic+” differs, which implies a higher oil price is $50 in 2017 and $55 in 2018-2019 and a lower rate of the dollar to 58.7-61.7 ruble.
In the “target” option, the price of oil is set the same as in the “basic+”, but expected the transition to the investment model of development, the newspaper notes. The government should carry out reforms to restrain the growth of tariffs and the growth of wages, to redistribute budget expenditures. Due to the possible lower rates, the Central Bank may increase lending, and the private sector can increase investment and non-oil exports.
The publication also notes that even though the options have already been discussed at a meeting with Medvedev, the final decision on how to use the forecast to justify the budget tactic was not accepted. ACCORDING to the newspaper, the final choice is for President, who should discuss the document with the government.
Vedomosti also said that is scheduled for the end of September, the budget Commission meeting rescheduled for October. The newspaper cited a comment of Medvedev. According to the Prime Minister, in circumstances like the present, it is better to stick to a restrained assessment might be a little more cautious than necessary at first glance.
