The fall in oil prices, exacerbated the economic situation in the countries-exporters of fuel, now threaten global deflation and “prolonged stagnation” for the world economy, according to the forecast of experts of the International monetary Fund (IMF).
According to the published Tuesday to a new forecast by the IMF, global economic growth in 2016 will amount to 3.2% instead of 3.4%, expected Fund back in January (last year, global GDP increased by 3.1%). In 2017 the figure could rise to 3.5%, also below previous expectations (by 0.1 of a percentage point).
According to the Director of the IMF’s research Department Maurice Obstfield, growth recovery remains too fragile and may again be below expectations, which can increase deflationary expectations. This in turn poses a threat to output and may lead to a situation of “prolonged stagnation” (secular stagnation) in the global economy, warned the head of the Department.
Production and trade in the world are already in a vulnerable position due to the fall in the prices of raw materials and reduction of investments in extractive industries, the report said Fund. Note that the updated forecast of the IMF based on a rather pessimistic oil price forecasts in the next two years ($35 per barrel in 2016 and $ 41 in 2017).
Countries-oil exporters are unable to absorb the shocks from falling prices for their economies, which led to a sharp compression of demand, and its growth in importing countries was weaker than in previous similar periods (besides now reduced primarily the level of subsidies, not price), according to the IMF, writes “Kommersant
In a deep recession this year will remain Russian and the Brazilian economy (minus 1.8% and minus 3.8 per cent against minus 3.7% and minus 3.8 per cent last year). However, according to the Fund, the increase in oil prices may mitigate the situation, “a turn for the better in the Russian economy will happen this year”, said the Deputy head of the research Department of the Fund Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti.
Note, world Bank, updated in April, the forecast for Russia, just waiting for a larger decline by 1.9%. According to the Russian Central Bank, GDP will fall at an average oil price of $30 per barrel will amount to 1.3-1.5 per cent.
In China, economic growth may be significantly lower than plan, the authorities of this country, but higher than expected by the IMF in January to 6.5% in 2016, and 6.2% in 2017. “In General, the slowdown in growth takes place in agreement with what previously predicted, but the failure of import and export is more active than expected”, – noted in the Fund.
Finally, in developed economies, the average growth will remain at a level comparable to last year’s. In the USA the improvement in domestic demand compensates for the decline in net exports due to the strengthening U.S. dollar, however, the previously expected acceleration in growth is delayed now (the forecast for 2016 was reduced by 0.2 percentage points to 2.4%).
In the EU, as before, growth is constrained by the low level of investment and high unemployment (of 1.5-1.6% in 2016-2017). But in Japan, using the most aggressive policy of quantitative easing, growth next year on the back of higher sales tax and even may become negative (minus 0.1% versus 0.5% in the current).
