Advisor on macroeconomics General Director of the brokerage house “OTKRITIE” Sergey Chestnov said that the Russians must be prepared to the economic downturn or stagnation, which will last for another 10-15 years. According to him, if economic policy is changed, citizens expect substantial price increases, low wages and significant unemployment.
Whether in the next 15 years the Russians rough times? Is there any alternative to this pessimistic prognosis? Correspondents interviewed Pravda.Ru experts agree in the assessment of current economic problems: GDP, business activity, real incomes and tax revenues decline for third year in a row, and the substitution is quite slow.
“There is some progress in agriculture and some manufacturing industries associated with it, in particular agricultural machinery. There has been some growth in the export of chemical resources and the lumber industry. Developed and exported new weapons, — said the Director of the Institute of contemporary Economics Nikita Isaev. But, unfortunately, these revenues are estimated in the high billions of dollars. Across the vast Russia is Christian, does not affect the significant macroeconomic indicators of the decline of the national trade and trade balance”.
The Central Bank, according to him, the main aim of defined the so-called inflation targeting, that is kept within acceptable limits.
“Maybe this year he will be six percent, and it will be even lower than before the crisis. But at what cost? The fight against inflation in the current forms is killing the investment climate in the country: entrepreneurs do not have access to financial resources, and therefore funds for development. As a result of such policies reduced the purchasing power of the population,” — says Nikita Isaev.
According to a member of the Committee on budget and taxes of the State Duma Evgeny Fedorovto Russia was not of stagnation, the economy must grow at least three percent per year, and the last two years it falls to 3.5 percent.
“Accordingly, the fall in GDP impact on living standards of every Russian, whatever he was doing. This situation is a consequence of the policy pursued today by the economic unit: Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank and the international Monetary Fund, to see if his memoranda. If our economy will continue to command the IMF, the future is pessimistic, we are provided, in particular, is confirmed by the forecasts of Russian Ministers”, — said Evgeny Fedorov.
The main problem Nikita Isaev sees the lack of a clear economic model, which needs to develop the country. In his opinion, the economy will not come out of the dive without a strategic economic reforms that should be aimed at improving productivity and the transition to a post-industrial economy in the modern Western countries. That is the way to go now a rapidly developing India and China.
According to Yevgeny Fyodorov, the model out of the crisis and further development of the domestic economy is, and it is clearly stated in the addresses to the Federal Assembly and the May decrees of the President of Russia Vladimir Putin. This specific measures — a significant increase in incomes through the creation of five million new high-tech, high-paying jobs, the development of health and education, doubling the number of small businesses.
“Putin’s course means massive economic growth of the country and, consequently, income growth, — said Yevgeny Fyodorov in an interview Pravda.Ru. And today, we actually are faced with the need for political reform to establish the sovereignty and provision of national authorities, headed by the President the right to make decisions that are binding, as laid out in the May decrees”.
Both experts Pravda.Ru agree that today, at the forefront of the political component.
“We need to take political decisions in elections against those who set themselves the task of reforming the Russian economy, — said Nikita Isaev. — In the last election in September to the State Duma, unfortunately, none of the political forces has presented these proposals. I hope that they will be part of the presidential election campaign”.
“People should make the decision to consolidate around Putin and constitutional reform, without which such a course impossible. November 4th will be a holiday on Tverskaya in Moscow and throughout Russia. Let the people come out in support of the project of Vladimir Putin — calls Yevgeny Fyodorov. — This will strengthen the position of President and will allow you to change the IMF dictated economic policy at the national. Come out, show your stance to not complain then and why for us, someone did to us was good.”
