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The government is trying to save everyone

Правительство пытается спасти всех

The white house approved the plan of salvation of the Russian economy. According to experts, the document needs revision.

Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev approved the plan of salvation of the Russian economy, the document published on the government website (http://government.ru/news/22017/).

His priority is to “support the quality of life and well-being of Russian citizens, the fulfillment of social obligations of the state”, to the explanatory note to the document.

On anti-crisis measures to support the economy allocated to 470 billion roubles. The largest expense — loans to the regions (310 billion rubles), support of the automotive industry (88.6 billion), and support for people with disabilities (about 30 billion). To subsidize mortgages the government will spend 16.5 billion rubles.

In accordance with the approved plan for the payment of unemployment benefits (in the case of growth the number of unemployed to 1.3 million) from the Federal budget has allocated 5.5 billion rubles for the implementation of additional activities in the area of employment, 3 billion rubles for the modernization of municipal infrastructure 3.4 billion

Experts interviewed by “Izvestia”, were skeptical of the content of the plan, calling it declarative.

The Chairman of the Duma Committee on economic policy, innovative development and entrepreneurship Anatoly Aksakov said the document is very General.

— Of course, disability pensions, pensioners and unemployed families with children should be increased — there can be no doubt. However, regarding professional reorientation — the situation is very foggy, — the Director of analytical Department of the IR “Okay Broker” Vladimir rojankovski. — We are now more or less stable position in terms of income are the production and trade of food, civil service, and education. To whom to repurpose the “extra” mechanical working and machine-building plants, specialists of the Spa-Wellness facilities that serve the credit and banking sector, the insurance industry is unclear.

Chief economist at the National rating Agency Maxim Vasin stated that as part of economic stimulus initially formulated policies, measures and incentives, defines the objectives and only then is tokenized funding.

— That is, the movement goes from the General to the particular, explained Bob. — In the document the government’s overall goals and targets are not visible. This is a plan for the allocation of point subsidies on almost all targets, financed by the government — from social to military. It appears that such funding will not have a systemic effect and a key way on the macroeconomic situation will not be affected. Yes, the subjects listed in the document, this funding will help. But the government will not designate the macroeconomic guidelines to provide assistance as the forecast changes after receipt of assistance (for example, guidelines to reduce unemployment, create new jobs, change in GDP, individual industries, for example in the automotive industry), these measures will not give significant results. Total financing sources yet to be determined until the end.

However, Rosanowski no doubt that the document will be expanded with specific recommendations.

— Presents a plan of action designed to influence the most significant and problematic segments of the Russian economy. Directly social aspects of the 11 point plan, the other activities involve support of agriculture, manufacture, transport, import substitution, provision of state guarantees. It should be noted that the plan does not exclude the issue of additional indexation of pensions, the discussion of which is postponed to June 2016. Effective implementation of planned activities are capable to adjust the depth of the economic recession, but will not lead to any significant improvement in the economic situation this year, says chief analyst of the Bank Natalia Vasilyuk.

In February 2016, the international rating Agency has lowered its forecast for growth of Russian GDP. According to the Agency S&P, this year Russia’s GDP will decrease by 1.3% (previously talked about the growth of 0.3%). According to Moody’s — 2.5% (instead of growth of 0.5–1.5 %), Fitch estimates is 1% (instead of 0.5% growth). The Ministry of economic development forecasts are more optimistic than Western analysts: GDP growth at 0.7%, however, with oil at $50 a barrel. With oil at $40 a barrel is expected to decline in the economy by 0.8%. In the beginning of the year oil price averaged $30 per barrel. According to the MAYOR, in January of 2016 the growth of the Russian economy declined by 2.5% yoy after falling by 3.5% in the previous month. In 2015, the Russian economy contracted by 3.7% against the previous year, when GDP growth amounted to 0.7%.

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