Author Ludmila I. Kravchenko, expert, Center sulakshina
The problem of Russia’s future is concerned, not only Russians but also the Western world. From time to time there are predictions of a scenario of the world and the future, in which Russia mostly ignored.
Unlike foreign forecasts from the Russian is that they are deprived of the advocacy component, which overshadows the real threat to Russia’s security and wishful thinking. Made on a high professional level, what is clearly not government documents Shine Russia. Be not just a forecast, but a kind of manuals, on which West builds well thought-out policy aimed at implementation of the scenario in life.
Interesting in this regard, the forecast for 2015 known and respected private intelligence and analysis organization “Stratfor” and the position of its leader, George Friedman. Study and analysis of the forecast will help to focus attention on hidden or obvious threats which can lead to negative scenarios of development of the country. However, the Russian government prefers to rest on its laurels and not pay attention to the development of Western opponents, but in vain, their predictions come true. According to the forecast of the world until 2025 Russia will face the following consequences:
— the desire to reintegrate the post-Soviet space in an attempt to delay an impending demographic catastrophe. Actually, it can be seen now, when the Russian demographic problem is not solved due to natural increase and through migration increment, especially from the republics of the CIS (Fig. 1).
http://www.rossiyanavsegda.ru/uploads/other/2016/05/22/ludmila.png
Fig. 1. Natural and migration growth of Russia (Rosstat)
— carrying out defiantly more aggressive foreign policy due to pressure from foreign governments.
— on the Western borders of Russia will increase anti-Russian sentiment. Leaders of this movement will be Poland and Romania, which are gradually drawn into its orbit, including Ukraine, Belarus and move even further to the East. The conflict in Ukraine will not disappear, but will continue sluggish, affecting the balance of power in the region. Russia will lose influence in the Caucasus region and Central Asia. This in turn will lead to destabilization in the republics. So now the growth of Islamic sentiment in Tajikistan, which remains poorly disguised Outpost before the threat of Islamic terrorism, indicates the possibility of this scenario;
— geopolitical collapse in the collapse in oil prices, made possible because of the overwhelming dependence of Russian economy on energy exports. Moscow will not be able to continue to maintain control over the territory. A resource-based economy, dependent on detektivom, income transfers from the regions to the Centre has created the prerequisites for the growth of self-dependence of regions on the background of the deteriorating economic situation. Russia is waiting for the script of the 90s, when the ability of Moscow to support national regions will be sharply reduced. And though historical experience shows that such problems Moscow will try to solve with the help of the FSB, as in his time by the KGB, the security Agency will not be able to compensate for the centrifugal force.
The forecast this already in action — the Kremlin created the National guard to suppress any protest activity. The process of disintegration according to the forecast will take place around the perimeter boundaries. The Karelian region Orient in Finland, the far East — Japan and China. Given the pull factor of a more prosperous Finland, Japan and China, and also the very policy of the Russian authorities on lease to China of hundreds, if not thousands of hectares of land in Eastern Siberia and the Far East, is to talk about the reality of this forecast. And the amazing thing is that the government only speeds up its initiatives in these processes. Why tie the energy resources of the East of the country to China? Why allow the Chinese investor to exploration of Russia’s mineral resources? Why so much land to lease to China? Why the secret talks with Japan, which put in question the fate of the Kuril Islands. It is obvious that it is either hidden strategy of geopolitical disintegration, or unparalleled stupidity policy “after us the deluge.” Other regions, although will not strive for greater autonomy, the weakening of control from Moscow will become more independent. Given the disproportions of territorial development, shifting responsibility for the care of citizens on the subjects you can talk about the growth of regional autonomy, but not in a positive sense, and negative — more than sovereign in their atrocities against the people, who are under the oppression of both regional and Federal authorities;
— geopolitical disintegration will cause the problem of Russia’s nuclear Arsenal. It is worth remembering that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US has eliminated the threat of proliferation of nuclear weapons remaining in the territory of post-Soviet States. Now, according to the forecast, the US plays the same role. And the most acceptable solution it is proposed the creation of an economically stable and viable in the regions governments;
— the President of Russia Vladimir Putin the forecast given by the Fund Manager, George Friedman. According to him in the next two years, Putin’s foreign policy will be increasingly aggressive on the world stage since before the President’s task is to distract the Russians from the accumulated internal problems. And in this regard, Friedman’s forecast is more than Russia’s aggressive actions against Ukraine in 2017, that is, on the eve of the presidential election. Well, another war fits into the strategy of distract Russians from domestic economic catastrophe. And because the Russians in 2017, will remember that in 2014 Russia has left Donbass, have destroyed tens of thousands of civilians, plunging millions of already not Ukrainians, but also Russians are not in a state of fear and socio-economic devastation.
What will Russia without Putin? In the opinion of the scientist is virtually the same as it is now. “Putin is not leading the government alone. He is just the visible face of the security service, which actually runs the country. If Putin something happens, another employee of the FSB will take everything under control”. And this is similar to the ancient Greek myth of the Hydra — cut off one head and grows a new one. However, every Hydra should be your Hercules, and I want to believe that Russia is in this respect no exception…
Of the possible scenarios for Putin Friedman calls a variant with N. Khrushchev, who pushed their own colleagues because of failed economic reforms and voluntarist foreign policy. That only cost the Cuban missile crisis, which nearly ended in nuclear disaster. Arguing on this topic, Friedman indicates that around Putin popular Shoigu and Sobyanin, and the growth of their popularity will only increase. But if the fight will be in the style of the Soviet period, potential candidates for the post of the President can become Sergey Ivanov and Nikolay Patrushev.
The conviction of Friedman Putin has colleagues who believe that would have coped with running the country much better. Feeling this loss of soil underfoot, the Russian leader will act more repressively. And this is hard to disagree with Friedman in the context of the creation of the national guard, the tightening of legislation on extremism, the announcement of the tender to develop a new machine gun for the needs of the Ministry of internal Affairs of the Russian Federation that will be responsible for “the destruction of manpower and firepower destruction of the enemy during special operations in urban environments”. This is attributed by political slogans not to rock the boat of state, to protect the President as a guarantor of stability and so on.
Your own forecast scenario of Russia’s future has sulakshina Center. Public disclosure it will be submitted June 8 — in scientific expert session”will Russia have the revolution?”
Outlook Stratfor” — a prolongation of those trends that existed in the foreign policy and domestic for the last quarter of a century. Of course, “Stratfor” there have been incorrect predictions when the trend is changing under the influence of sudden events.
I want to believe that and against Russia might do the same, and the arrival of a truly Patriotic and authority-oriented break already growing trend of geopolitical disintegration. By the way, the forecast leaves the possibility of a trend change, but only if the country will proceed finally to a successful incentive activities in the field of politics, the military, the economy. However, while the strengthening of Russia, apparently, is contrary to the interests of the Kremlin elite. Works conservative option.
