The extinction of the Western optimism. El Pais, Spain
Date of publication: 01 September 2016, 09:30
Europe and the United States of America stand face to face no external threats, unlike the cold war period. The belief in economic progress was shaken, in connection with immigration escalated fear of loss of national identity.
A year and a half ago of an American geopolitician Robert Kaplan (Robert Kaplan) published a study entitled “a New map of the European middle Ages” (Medieval Europe’s New Map). Kaplan has studied the rise of populist forces opposing, among other things, European integration, in conclusion, he warned against the fragmentation of the continent, the once “deep problems” for the United States. The result of the referendum in support of Brexia a few months later only confirmed the validity of this forecast.
However, the Kaplan, so insightful in the description of European failures, failed to predict the outbreak of populist ideas in their own country as long as they have not done clearly. Exactly what Kaplan called exclusively a European problem, has largely affected the United States of America. But if it simultaneously affects Europe and the United States, we will undoubtedly face a phenomenon that can be described as exclusively Western.
Definitely, the West — a term obsolete with the end of the cold war, a period when the presence of a common external enemy to rally the country on both sides of the Atlantic. No later than the treatise on the clash of civilizations, nor the revival of Asia has not contributed to the restoration of a unified Western approach in opposition to other forces. For decades the European Union focused on their problems, while the United States was moving away from Europe, instead of fixing his eyes on Asia. But now, suddenly, we are faced with serious challenges, which have something in common, appearing everywhere in our own countries, not outside. And here, dealing with similar problems, we again recognize our common interests and destinies.
Caused by the rise of populist forces are the same reasons in Europe and in the United States? It would seem that they are similar in substance, although in Europe in addition traced the centrifugal tendencies that threaten the integration process, which was not applicable on the other side of the Atlantic ocean. But there are some internal tendency that is repeated in both cases. First, the faith in economic progress that seemed to last forever, and also the impression shared by the General population that the new generation will live worse than their predecessors. And secondly, there is a growing fear of loss of identity associated with cultural changes provoked by immigration.
Similar feelings are expressed in political language as harsh criticism against the elite and opposition to free trade agreements and also as a protest against immigration and the emergence of the nationalist stratum of society. Of course, these factors are combined in different ways, depending on whether we are talking about left-wing or right-wing political movements. Although the Foundation they have in common: the rejection of globalization and cosmopolitans who insist on its beneficial effects and irreversible nature. Such a fierce reaction against the elite can fully understand, analyzing this phenomenon in a religious context: seeing it as a rebellion against the failed hopes of the promised progress, who believed so strongly that this belief has largely replaced the old beliefs. All this is accompanied by a rejection of what is perceived as the erosion of national feeling.
These two aspects develop in a decidedly pessimistic forecasts. And we are not talking about a skeptical and insightful pessimism of those who are not deceived by the limitations of human nature, on the contrary, in this case, we are faced with a collective sense of resentment at what is perceived as wrong and unjust twist in the development of the story. Given this mood, it is worth remembering that globalization is a creation of the West, of which Europe and the United States have extracted exorbitant benefits before you start to help other States.
This type of optimism is disappearing in the West, moved to the East, where hundreds of millions of people in a short time have moved from poverty into the middle class. Indeed, one of the most significant effects of globalization — the return of the demographic indicators of economic weight, which was observed in the past. We may be surprised to learn that only 10 years ago, the economy of India, with a population nearly 30 times, was weaker than the economy of Spain. Today the Indian GDP than the Spanish twice and has a very high growth forecasts for the next years, this means that the situation was atypical in the past.
However, the rise of Asia and relative decline in the development of the West are entering a long cycle of history that hasn’t been written yet. In addition, there are factors that can bring this stunning Asian climbing fiasco, if in the future a prudent view of the national interest will not be a priority. There prevails a rapid burst of nationalism, the product of pride in connection with the return to the first division of world power, directed against the next, such as powerful States, as in Europe, the first half of the twentieth century, of course, with catastrophic consequences.
Meanwhile, Europe and the United States retain significant political, economic and military resources in the near future, guarantee their credibility in international Affairs. However, the main risk for both sides is their internal situation. The fact that the most convincing argument in Western society —civil health, and the power of our own example, as he likes to remind President Obama — the source of his power. As a consequence, political and public spheres that support an open, liberal order and not an exclusive identity, will have to win the battle of ideas and affections. It is necessary to come up with a reasonable courage to tackle important questions that often don’t have time to answer: how to renew the European project, while getting rid of chronic deficit of democracy, how to reconcile openness to the outside world and social stability within countries, how to attract talented and at the same time more inclined to the integration of immigrants. And finally, how to restore faith in ourselves and in our future.
Fidel Sendagorta, writer and diplomat, El Pais, Spain
“The Independent
