Economists in Russia is painfully trying to grope his foot down and understand how to push him to start to grow at a rate of at least 4% per year. Manual ordered so much. As the crisis deepens, and continue searches of stagnation become increasingly noticeable.
So this is the bottom or, again, isn’t it?
Last year the Minister Ulyukayev invented absolutely cool, although not an economic definition — the fragile bottom. It’s brilliant. There is such a bottom, from which if you start stronger, you have a chance to fall even further.
Of all the economists I most like to listen to Natalia Zubarevich, Director of regional programs, the IISP. It was originally a geographer, so it is the study of life in Russia is always concrete.
The different regions, and the average temperature in the hospital does not always have the understanding of what is happening.
To listen Zubarevich exceptionally nicely on the form and the painful content. Because if she says the news is good, this does not mean that we should rejoice and RUB their hands. Usually, this means only that there is a chance. What if you really move fast, you will be able to find a way out.
Where in the Russian budget receives taxes? Donors a little bit, says Zubarevich. Oil and gas in the Khanty-Mansi and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, where there is a severance tax (tax on mineral extraction). Moscow, St. Petersburg, and Moscow oblast, where there is a VAT (value added tax).
Separately, there is a Sakhalin. He earns enough and almost all the leaves, there runs the agreement on production section. Remember, there recently the Governor was removed and a new was appointed. Apparently, more accommodating.
And how many Russian regions that receive transfers from the state budget? All, except listed in the previous rows. Among them are leaders of Ingushetia, Chechnya, Crimea, Sevastopol. For these appropriations from the state budget not only reduced the deepening problems in the country, and even grow.
A geography of curious citizens have long known. What is happening inside the regional budgets? Here Natalia Zubarevich speaks particularly harshly. The debts of regional budgets grow, the transfers are reduced.
The province cut funding. Particularly affected are three articles: housing, culture, education.
With utilities it’s clear that it’s a big black hole which would sink any amount of money, how many took the shrinkage-outage, and how much the reduction is not split. But culture and education are investments in our future. Cutting costs on so-called human capital is easier than other items, because the disaster will be felt not tomorrow, but ten years later. With a qualified employee for employment to meet will be harder and harder. By the way, if you will-still economic growth, it will need educated staff. And will not find them. And to blame those who cut costs now.
Problems of regional budgets and the need (now I say Soviet of the word) to implement the may decrees of President Putin. Remember these? It’s about public sector wages. And these salaries are all from regional budgets. Here and climb the regions deeper and deeper into debt. And only the most dedicated are funded at a rate of 0.01% per annum. If among the readers there are those who took out a loan, envy! You know about these bets?
The governors are in such condition that it is not about economic growth and investment, they should think, but only on the pre-election situation, the ratings and the percent of voters.
Giving social peace! No unemployment, because the reduction of employment and the employers, the workers prefer the reduction of salaries and underemployment. This model was born in the 1990s, operates today.
You just have to suffer, and everything will work out. And the whole country lives. Waits and hopes.
But a friend of mine taught me that hope at the bottom of Pandora’s box is the worst of evils. It deprives man of the ability to change and move. He just waits and hopes.
