The Central Bank did not rule out the GDP growth in the third quarter, which will be observed for the first time in 2014.
In III quarter of current year GDP for the first time since the end of 2014 may grow by 0.1–0.2% in annual terms, seasonally adjusted, do not rule out at the Centre for studies and forecasting of the Bank of Russia. According to experts of the Central Bank, marked the revival of investment imports may be a harbinger of the imminent change in the dynamics of the manufacturing industry. And it can pull a recovery of output growth in General. Analysts are ready to believe the conclusions of experts of the Central Bank and link the possible revival including positive trends in agriculture.
After maximum decline in the second quarter of last year (forecast to be minus 4.6%) quarterly dynamics of GDP began to improve, reaching minimum values (down 0.6%) in the second quarter of 2016. In the third quarter the experts of the Central Bank and is expecting though small, but still growth. An important positive signal the Central Bank believes the significant increase in imports of machinery and equipment, and this investment category. In August, with the elimination of the seasonality factor, this figure rose by an impressive 12.7 per cent, whereas in previous months it remained at around 5%, according to Bank of Russia. While the rest of the imports (primarily consumer goods) is still negative dynamics.
The findings of the Centre for research and forecasting of the Central Bank differ significantly from all the previously existing expectations. For example, according to the forecast of Ministry of economic development, which late last week announced Deputy Minister Alexei Vedev, GDP growth can take place only in the fourth quarter of 2016. However, on Monday, the press service of the MAYOR’s “news” said that the Agency considers the possible revival of the economy in the third quarter, if you count the percentage from the previous quarter adjusted for seasonality. In the Ministry believe that this will be possible due to the growth of industry, wholesale trade and agriculture.
Excess liquidity of the credit institution used to early extinguish its commitments and to buy up other people’s
— Increase in production of goods and services in the third quarter was due to growth of the mining industry, agriculture and some manufacturing sectors, supported by a relatively weak exchange rate of the ruble — said the chief analyst of the Bank Natalia Vasilyuk. In such cases, in my opinion, we should not focus on a specific value of 0.1, 0 or -0.1 per cent. More importantly, the economy has not been much deterioration in performance. But the steady growth can not speak yet.
Chief economist IK “URALSIB capital” Alexei Devyatov, in turn, believes that the economic growth in the third quarter, the optimistic scenario could be 0,1–0,2%. However, in his opinion, most likely, this figure was near zero.
— There is reason to believe that a significant contribution can agriculture. This year we have quite a good harvest for many crops. III quarter from the point of view of agriculture is traditionally strong, it could lead us to the area slightly above zero. Growth rate of agriculture was 6% at the end of August, and if you multiply the share of this sector in GDP, then this will be enough to cross the zero mark, — suggested the expert.
According to the Ministry of agriculture, on October 7, collected of 113.5 million tonnes of grain (harvested 92% of the cultivated area). The Agency expects to harvest up to 116 million tons — an absolute record for the post-Soviet Russia.
Support of the GDP can also provide food, light, chemical industry and production of machinery.
— Apparently, the business begins to accept the situation is not as hard as before. Investment demand returns to life due to deferred investments that have accumulated over the past six months, said Alexei Devyatov.
At the same time retain risks that the dynamics of production vehicles. Furthermore, the main challenge to economic growth is consumer spending.
— The pace of consumer demand remains weak, we see a decrease of 5% from year to year. The compression of real disposable income is growing, and this is a worrying factor. If the situation does not change we may not get economic growth in the coming months, indicates the economist.
According to him, consumption is declining at a slower pace than revenues. According to him, the decline of GDP by the end of 2016 will be 0.3%.
Specifies the risks and the Central Bank. The Department of forecasting of the Bank of Russia noted that industrial production there is a new season: for more than six months in the manufacturing industry month growth steadily replaced month. This zigzag movement can be associated with the corresponding production cycle in one of the branches, making it difficult to isolate the “true” seasonality and the impact on the resulting estimates. Probably the decline of industries on the background of the resume, do not exclude the Bank of Russia.
The economist “VTB the Capital” Alexander Isakov predicts a decline in GDP for the year at 0.5%. In his opinion, in the third quarter could really be a growth, but it was within statistical error up to 0.1 percent.
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