At a government meeting on Thursday Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev was made public figures on budget execution in the current year. It turned out that revenues were 370 billion rubles less than planned, and the deficit increased by 670 billion — from 2.3 to 3 trillion. But the saddest thing is that next year the improvement is not expected.
Taking into account the amendments that in the near future will have to take the state Duma, the budget revenues this year should reach 13,368 trillion. rubles. But in the next, according to Finance Minister Anton siluanova, the revenues will amount to 13,032 trillion. rubles, that is at 364 billion less.
In the next three years is expected to reduce the ratio of budget expenditure to GDP. Now it is 16.2% of GDP, and in 2019 it will be at 14.9%. Simply put, the government will have to save even more.
The situation is compounded by the fact that according to the estimates of the Ministry of Finance, the Reserve Fund will be exhausted by the end of 2017. The only remaining “potbelly” — the national wealth Fund, which today is about 4.6 trillion. rubles. By the end of 2019 there will be no more than 500 billion At this yet and hints that soon the economy can structurally adjust and to obtain additional sources of income.
This year’s budget deficit plan to partially close with privatization. However, there is not much success. From the sale 50,0755% of shares of “Bashneft”, which intends to acquire Rosneft, the government expects to 330 billion rubles.
Another 700 billion, the Ministry of Finance plans to receive from privatization in 2016 19.5% stake in Rosneft. But this trillion deficit cover only one-third.
There is another option to raise taxes and impose additional fees. But the payment for overhaul, increased excise taxes on alcohol and tobacco. Initiatives such as tax parasites are unlikely to be implemented, and raising taxes on business profits can lead to bankruptcy.
You can still borrow abroad. But here there are difficulties because of the sanctions, besides $ 3 billion, the Ministry of Finance this year has already taken and the budget act to borrow the “over the hill” are not allowed.
To reduce the budget deficit can also already proven way — due to the devaluation of the national currency. If the proceeds from the sale of oil and gas dollars to change at a higher rate, you can get more into the budget rubles. But, first, the ruble was devalued recently. Second, the new devaluation will further reduce real incomes, and this is fraught with social indignation.
Experts claim that the budget deficit not so significant. Today it is about 3 trillion. rubles, which is about 3.2% of GDP. The national debt is also not so great, about 13.6% of GDP or $ 170 billion. For comparison, the US national debt today is higher to 19.5 trillion. dollars. But the currency of the United States is accepted by all, and due to this the US live, but we have to rely on their own resources. Including natural, which on world markets are falling in price.
Thinks Professor of the Higher school of economy Ivan Rodionov, the problem is not the budget deficit, and in the absence of positive dynamics of the national economy:
— The price of oil the average for the year was less than $ 50 per barrel, hence the reduction in budget revenues. In principle, this is a typical tactic of the Ministry of Finance is to understate future income in the calculation of the formation of any reserves. Just people in the Ministry don’t live in illusions, but in reality, they understand that the government may urgently require something to Finance.
In General, the budget deficit is so small that talking about it is not worth it. Why the government is struggling with it? Just understand that if to help the economy through the budget, the economy is not going to help. And better to say that money is not there.
We have a huge number of large-scale projects that do not stimulate the economy, and that’s the problem.
“SP”: — the Reserve Fund is close to exhaustion.
— Reserve and made for a bad time. Now that the reserves have come in handy. Then, who prevents the state to take from the people? Domestic debt is now very small. For the sake of covering the deficit will not keep a stable exchange rate so that the loan can be substantial. So anything terrible has not happened yet.
Trouble is a friend. It is difficult to live in a state of hopelessness and hopelessness. In the current configuration of the economy improvement will not be exact. It is possible to make personnel changes, some updates “facade”, but the situation does not improve.
“SP”: — do the citizens expect the devaluation of the ruble? By the way, what is the reason for the current strengthening of the national currency?
— Today, banks don’t lend. Where banks take the money to pay the employees wages? The answer is obvious: speculation. The current fluctuations are very comfortable. Due to this, lives banking system. Of course, it’s not very good. But if to punish speculators, it will begin problems with payment, therefore no one really touches.
But in a similar state of Latin America to live for decades. Rot can be very long and with pleasure. People will live very poorly, and several thousand families who all know, will live well. Look, our Ministers and governors saying that nothing should be changed, all will recover itself. Indeed, it is good, no problem.
Experience 2014 and 2015 shows that at the beginning of the year, the ruble weakens. If he loosens up to 75 rubles per dollar, no one particularly indignant will not, and someone will make a good profit.
The prices will be. A significant part of consumption — imports, which will be expensive. Accordingly, inflation will rise. Only our government does not give specific details on inflation and industrial goods inflation, consumer products, and displays the average, which shows nothing.
The results of the development of the economy over the past year, overall negative. So it is not surprising the decrease in revenues, — says head of Department of economic theory, Moscow state University Andrei Kolganov.
— In addition, a significant portion of the budget is funded through the sale of oil, the prices of which have declined. Accordingly, the drop in income. Oil revenues have fallen more than the overall economy.
“SP”: — Maybe say even a failed privatization?
— This is not surprising. To start privatization, when the economy is in crisis, not very reasonable. The attempt thus to patch holes in the budget does not look normal. Besides, the sale could bring stable income to the state.
“SP”: — What will happen after the exhaustion of the reserves?
— It is clear that reserves are a good thing. But only up to a point. All problems of economy to solve is, obviously, impossible. And we should not look at the number of reserves, and structurally change the economy. Reserves can not “eat away”, they should be directed at giving impetus to the national economy. We really, reserves a few delays total crisis, but then will do nothing. Our state does not have serious levers to remedy the situation.
“SP”: — How to cover the budget deficit?
— To resort to various loans, there is no other way. Unless, of course, do not run the printing press. You can take in the financial market, in the banking sector. Another thing that you have to give. Will the debt service.
“SP”: — How likely is the devaluation of the ruble?
— It all depends on many factors. Primarily from the global oil market. But what’s the situation there, predicting is almost impossible, it is extremely unstable. It is clear that in the medium term, neither a significant decline nor a significant increase is not expected. But what will happen no one will say.
