The experts considered the damage from 25 years of market reforms in Russia.
It’s a 45% fall in GDP and a 60% reduction in production volumes.
For some indicators the country dropped to the level of the middle of the last century, and to recover still does not work.
In the capital began its work in Moscow economic forum, the correspondent of Накануне.RU. Discussion of alternative ways of economic development gathered once sold out, literally in the hall of the Lomonosov Moscow state University body was “overcrowded”, the forum gathered 3 thousand 883 registered participants from 47 regions and 16 countries.
In his welcoming remarks, the co-chair of the MEF, head of the Association “Rosagromash” and “New Commonwealth” Konstantin Babkin noted that currently there is a gap between the huge potential of the country, and the situation in the economy.
Konstantin Babkin, Ruslan Grinberg
“The result of our three years of work is that already 65% of the population want a change in the economy, see this opportunity. The task for the coming days to give this vague desire in the form of declarations, policy documents. We need to make these changes was carried out intelligently, decisively and quickly”, – said Babkin.
The first plenary session of the forum was devoted to a discussion of the outcomes of the 25th anniversary of market reforms in Russia. The panelists noted that the view of Russia about the essence of transition to a market economy were primitive. As a “result” of the transformation of the country got the economy based on revenues from raw materials, requiring diversification, and a lack of economic strategy.
When breaking and the transition to a market economy, Russia has paid a very high price, noted during the discussion, academician of RAS, Director of Moscow school of Economics of Moscow state University , Alexander Nekipelov. According to him, we looked at the development in the framework of shock therapy or gradualism, however, the task should have been ranked differently.
“We never knew what lived in the economy with resources… We have lost the most high-tech industries. There was another consequence. The process of transformation conducted in conflict settings. This has affected the state of our political system. We have a debate on economic policy, but irrespective of that for 25 years has a government of “professionals” that operates on the principle of “Vaska listens, Yes eats,” commented the scientist.
Alexander Nekipelov, Grzegorz Kolodko
For successful development within the framework of the market “paradigm” must be based on values, social institutions and political course. All of these options, according to the former Finance Minister of Poland Grzegorz Kolodko, must be productive. He noted that Russia, like Poland, sought to create a market economy, however, unlike Polish authorities, the Russian Federation did not have a clear understanding where to move. The result of the lack of competent economic strategy resulted in a substantial deterioration of the parameters of development. So, Kolodko noted, if 25 years ago Russia’s GDP exceeded three times the GDP of China, at this stage China surpasses Russia on this value six times.
Dominique Strauss Kahn
His vision of prospects of development of Russia shared another foreign visitor – the ex-IMF chief Dominique Strauss Kahn. In his opinion, Russia should abandon the resource economy and to take a course on its diversification. “Low oil prices a bad influence on your economy, but Russia has not done enough to move away from financing your economy. Based on raw material economy lags behind other countries in the world – there is no desire to increase productivity, do not need to restructure. But in the context of globalization need to sell not only oil and gas, it is necessary to diversify the economy and develop other sectors of the economy, small and medium enterprises to enter international market. We must depart from the previous scheme. We cannot completely depend on this. If you are not going to develop, attract and develop their knowledge, there will be a powerful risk that you will fall into the trap of low wages and income,” believed Strauss Kahn. However, he added that other countries-oil exporters, the situation is much worse than in Russia.
The politician also stressed that every country, including Russia, should find its own development path. And blindly following the IMF requirements, only one of them. The rules of the IMF will not work if not taken into account the particularities of each country, he said. “You can not just institutions – has a different history, culture. Each country must find its own path of development… can’t repeat things in another country,” said Strauss Kahn.
Ex-IMF chief also pointed out as important social task is the need to debug the mechanism of proper development of the market economy. According to him, the crisis in USA in 2008 was associated with growing inequality.
“The American economy for 20 years before that, increased the gap between middle class and rich. Later began restructuring the debts of the population that’s taken the country’s economy. The crisis of real estate markets has occurred because of rising inequality. I am sure that the market economy can overcome this inequality not only in Russia but also worldwide. Need to find a solution. Otherwise it will lead to destabilization, disobedience and uprisings,” said Strauss Kahn.
Market reforms were, for example, and in China, but the results of this transformation are completely different, continued the discussion economist, publicist Yury Boldyrev. In the modern civilized market reforms have been tampered with other.
Yuri Boldyrev, Vladislav Zhukovskiy
“The inclusion of market mechanisms exist to improve the efficiency of the national economy and not to the ship, having goals, objectives, and course, to turn into a boat, carried about by the waves, where have. Market reforms to achieve national objectives have been replaced by tissue destruction of society, the state, its humanistic orientation” – said the expert. He also expressed conviction that the dramatic fall in oil prices is a chance, which may contribute to the development of our country. “Life warns us, encourages to turn on the creative model of the economy as a mechanism of material support purposes,” – said Boldyrev.
In turn, the Chairman of Association “Centre for research into economic and sociocultural upward enhancement of CIS countries, Central and Eastern Europe”, former Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine Serhiy Arbuzov has assessed the results of the 25th anniversary of the sovereignty of the Ukrainian state. In his opinion, having great prospects for the prosperity of the free market economy, Ukraine today, on abandoned decades ago, and she has a lot of work to get back to the numbers in 1991.
“Over the past two years, Ukraine has lost more than in the previous 20 years of sovereignty. A sharp choice of the path, a landmark on the West led to the fact that traditional trade relations with Russia and Soviet republics were severed. Ukraine lost more than $ 10 billion. And the same amount Ukraine is trying to borrow from the IMF on the basis of the payment of interest and repayment. This is absolutely terrible and impossible demands, which led to the impoverishment of the population,” expressed the opinion of Watermelons. The politician added that the country drives itself into debt, fulfilling the requirements of the IMF. Against this background, Ukraine’s GDP today is minus 15%, inflation of 40%, and the average salary does not exceed $ 50.
However, I am sure Arbuzov, Ukraine has internal resources for development without foreign funding. The amount of these potential tools the expert has estimated in 100 billion dollars.
Over 25 years of market reforms, the GDP decreased by 45 and 46%, industrial production fell by 60%, including processing industry declined by about 80% – five times. About this during the discussion, said independent economist, market expert Vladislav Zhukovsky. “In the 1990s there occurred a pogrom of the middle class. Real poverty has reached 50-60% of the population. High technology with high added value – decay by 20-40 times. We are still in volume production at the level of the 1950s… capital formation fell by more than 49%, and we still do not reach the 1990 level,” he cited data analyst.
In his opinion, to break free from the current economic traps of Russia will help only a change of policy. The basis of the new political model should, in his view, to become national interests of socio-labor majority, small business, and overcoming dependence on natural resources and human development.
Moscow economic forum will continue on Thursday, March 24.