On Monday, the Bank of Russia has published new data on balance of payments, which suggests that foreign exchange earnings to the country was the lowest since spring 2009
In this case, if the exports decreased by 34.3%, the import – only 15.4%. Thus, a positive balance of payments continued to shrink.
In March, for example, the inflow of foreign currency into the country and is updated for post-crisis record low and amounted to only $7 billion.
Positive balance of foreign trade of Russia in the first quarter of 2016, decreased 2.1 times to us $21.6 billion, according to data from the Bank of Russia. A year earlier, the trade surplus stood at $45.5 billion
Exports in the first quarter of the current year decreased by 34.3% compared with the same period in 2015 from $90,2 billion to $59.3 billion
The volume of imports in the first quarter of 2016 decreased by 15.4% to $37.8 billion compared with $44.7 billion in the first quarter of 2015.
The current account surplus of the balance of payments in the first quarter of 2016 amounted to $11.7 billion, compared with $30 billion in the first quarter of 2015, “the reduction was the result of the reduction more than twice the positive balance of foreign trade in conditions of significant reduction of export during deceleration of import decrease”, – said in comments the Central Bank to the assessment of Russia’s balance of payments.
Of course, the main reason for the reduction of foreign exchange earnings – falling prices for energy and metals, accounting for about 70% of export revenues.
It is not surprising that in this situation there is a severe budget deficit. Budget expenditures exceed revenues for the second month in a row, and in March, the deficit reached 711 billion rubles.
Note that the oil price in March was at the highs since the beginning of the year, but current prices are too low for the Russian budget.
Experts believe that this factor has an extremely negative impact on the ruble exchange rate.
Indeed, it is necessary to consider that the price of Russian Urals is much lower than the price of Brent. The average price of Russian mix for the first quarter amounted to $32, while the average price for March is $36,53 per barrel.
It is also worth noting that Russia has increased its exports of hydrocarbons, in value terms still loses.
Pay attention to the value of oil in rubles. We are talking about Marc Brent, so there is probably need to do some amendment. However, now the quotation is about 2800 rubles, which is significantly lower than last fall. For the budget it would be nice if the indicator had reached at least the mark 3100 rubles per barrel.
This can be achieved in two ways: either by the increase in oil prices or the weakening of the ruble, but the CBR has not demonstrated its willingness to devalue the ruble.
CBR: capital outflows in the first quarter fell 5 times
Net capital exports by the private sector in the first quarter of 2016 amounted to $7 billion, a decrease of more than 4.5 times relative to similar period of last year. Such data contains in the materials evaluation of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation in January–March of current year, published on the website of the regulator.
According to estimates of the Bank of Russia main component in the structure of net export of capital remains the repayment of external liabilities, although in significantly smaller sizes than in the same period last year.
The current account surplus of the balance of payments in the first quarter of the current year totaled $11.7 billion compared with $30 billion in the first quarter of last year. “The reduction was due to a decrease of more than twice the positive balance of foreign trade in conditions of significant reduction of export during deceleration of falling imports,” noted the Central Bank.
