Russia’s economy in the first quarter of 2015 may be reduced in annual expression on 1,7—2,5%. This forecast is contained in a statement released today an updated report of the CBR monetary policy.
“In the first quarter of 2016, the Bank of Russia’s GDP would shrink by 1.7-2.5 per cent, slightly down on estimates made in December 2015 (1-2% in the baseline scenario)”, — stated in the document.
As the regulator expects in the second quarter of 2016, the decline in GDP will slow to between 0.3 and 1.8% of the corresponding period of the previous year.
“Thus, the short-term Outlook GDP has remained relatively stable, despite the deterioration of external conditions” — specify in Bank of Russia.
Earlier on Friday, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia kept its key rate unchanged at 11% per annum. According to the regulator, “despite some stabilization in the financial and commodity markets and slowing inflation, inflation risks remain high”. At the same time, the Central Bank stated, “in deciding on the key rate, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia proceeded from the expectations lower than in the December forecast, oil prices”.
Thus, speaking later at a press conference, the Chairman of the CBR Elvira Nabiullina said that the Russian economy quickly adapts to the new reality. According to her, there has been a point of growth in industries focused on import substitution.
At the same time, she pointed out, there is a high uncertainty in oil prices and the Russian economy.