Almost all summer remained offline. For a number of reasons, chief among which is still probably my own laziness. But among other things it would not like to join the numerous ranks of the fighters for and against, happily tearing each other ahead of the September elections, and often interpret events so freely that sometimes reality could guess in these “analiticheskih” materials with great difficulty.
Not to say that the summer was absolutely cloudless and mean on curious events, but was much calmer than expected. Including on my part. But the summer is over, outside the window all day drizzles and obviously nasty autumn rain. Against this background, is to bring some end of the summer and to chart their own expectations as to the autumn.
For Russia the summer, especially the end really turned out to be much safer than was thought a few months ago. The reason for this incorrect expectations, the weakness of anti-Russian forces both inside and outside, or common geopolitical trends in the world, can not say. Apparently, all at once. The opposition we have not a “cake”, and fears of global power the anti-Russian forces have been exaggerated, and the unity of these forces is crumbling with such speed that they are not fit to think about Russia, and about their own future.
However, autumn is so calm will be unlikely. Although in the coming months, the main events are unlikely to unfold in Russia, most outside. And if we touch it only in connection with them.
Of course, the focus of all the upcoming events in the world in the coming months will be a struggle for the presidency in the United States. Not exactly this struggle and the struggle between two already formed concepts regarding global the future of the world, which have become spokesmen for both the winning party candidate. Even though their victory was also different, in essence, is a kind of reflection of global changes in American society. Trump pulled out a victory against the will of party elites due to the massive, almost total support of the average Republican voter. Clinton, by contrast along the road to the nomination was explicitly supported by almost all political clans Democrats, can not be said about ordinary voters. She had literally raped the old man Sanders, who gave her the victory by angry cries of protest and booing him supporters. And even in these conditions, for a nominal victory, Clinton took many rigged voting in many States.
As a result, today the American society is actually divided diagonally. Three-quarters of the country’s political elite against three quarters of ordinary Americans. So the final battle promises to be extremely tense and interesting. Although not without possible unintended consequences.
The reason for such a serious and unusual for the United States a split of public opinion that the difference in global concepts automatically entails a radically different future for the United States. Even though generally tacit agreement of the elites and the media, the vast majority of hushed picture, the General trend today is already quite transparent to most Americans.
Trump’s victory would mean the collapse of US hegemony and the transformation of the country from “most” to “one”. Of global dominance in let strong, but a regional power. It is very painful for America. And not only psychologically. The economy too will have to learn to live within your means, on your own. But this way promises a sharp easing of international conflicts, to some extent, even in a “soft landing” for the sudden collapse of the existing world order will be painful for some, not US. This path promises relative peace and tranquility on the planet. Not without hard regional conflicts, but certainly without global catastrophe.
Victory for Clinton would be for the United States and around the world mean absolutely nothing. It is a fight for global dominance of the United States until recently. Or to the last opponent, or, more likely, until the last defender of that hegemony in the United States. And to fight for its status as America will have one against all. For supporters of collective suicide in the world not so much. And among those who have the opportunity to influence the situation, such is not there. Though still recently it seemed that talkers “who at us to America?” are countless. All of Europe and a lot of the signatories of the TPP in Asia and LA. But Europe has cynically thrown US with the TTIP and TTP about stopped immediately after the signing of the Declaration. And never about it did not remember in order not to shame. And if you remember, just in the winning trump, not Clinton. That’s just to dominate in this project are unlikely to be already in the USA.
Analysis of events after the nomination of both party’s candidates shows that the positions of Clinton, a few months ago seemed unchangeable, gradually weaken. Melts grassroots support. The same Sanders is how to vote for Clinton and even to speak in support of it aloud. But the voter who cast their vote for him against Clinton, she certainly will not vote. Or trump, or simply ignore the election. Is not so monolithic looks and its support among the elite. Against this background, “the party” Clinton twice over the summer, ventured to organize big projects and both failed ignominiously. As the revolution in Turkey and the attempted terrorist attacks in Crimea through the Ukrainian motherfucker. In the end only worsened the situation and prospects. The world is not like losers. And especially don’t like them in his camp. And public refusal of France and Germany from further discussion on the TTIP that’s a red flag.
Although the incipient reversal of Europe should not be overestimated. To the European elites are just starting to walk on the brink of a precipice they brought their continent, mindlessly following in the American Wake. But those who are now in power in Europe are unlikely to have the strength and determination that any serious change. And certainly not before the US elections. Yes, and in the opinion of the European politicians almost more influenced by BRICKSET, and started a similar movement in other countries. And Britain that actively use. Already there is talk about a similar procedure in the Netherlands, the biggest ally of England on the continent. Actively climb to power in France, young and promising candidate of the Rothschilds. The eyes of weakened in Germany, Merkel. And all Europe in terror, froze in front of possible new waves of refugees from Turkey, where the United States trod on Erdogan’s toes. For she knows that to pay for a failed gamble with the coup, she will have first.
Russia it’s all sort of true not so much. But there is a caveat. The problem is that our country is still publicly undecided which of the concepts she is going to vote for its policies. And Russia, for all its current economic weakness is not a power that any of the warring parties would like to detect in ambush in their rear. And that put pressure on both sides. Here and grimaces at the meeting with Putin and the US President and British latter-day premershu. And one and the other is scared that Russia may be among the enemies.
And Russia is not determined too, not just. It just seems that the victory of the English project in which the center of global activity moving to the Pacific ocean, and the power is divided between all of the major Players in the region, including Russia itself, by far the more profitable. It is not so simple. Unconditional victory of Britain over the US not just tilt the latter, but also embodies the new Britain world leadership. The Pro-British encirclement of Russia with Europe in the West and loyal to the Crown of India and China on the South and East can hardly be described as friendly. The situation if not immediately, but in the future may be for our country even harder. Of course, Clinton in the us presidential is not absolutely necessary. Possessed the likeness of the last German Fuhrer at the head of the largest nuclear country this is the last thing you can dream of. And only part of the Russian elite, purchased by the Rockefellers and their allies in Germany and France, fearing for their own future can not pretend that everything is fine. But maintaining a formal detachment from the Anglo-American fight, after (and if) victory trump Russia has much to gain. Support the flagging U.S., even friendly relations with China could transform Russia into a full-fledged arbitrator, limiting the power of Britain and provides a complete multi-polar world order. This is what so infuriates London today. And indeed the US, where Obama has not found the strength to speak out against Clinton, and succumbed to her blackmail.
That looks like today’s global disposition. But among the large and small battlefields significantly stands Syria, where almost all global powers explicitly or implicitly already present. And here the picture looks very complex and contradictory. The most problematic seems the situation in the United States. This situation is temporary, but before the November elections, it can and should be used. On the one hand for electoral purposes the United States needed a convincing win cash ISIS (as well pulls constantly to reiterate that this organization is forbidden in Russia). This can be achieved only by taking Crayfish. Physically it can only do the Kurds, although with the support of various groups of special forces from America and Europe, and hired US money, CWA. But at the same time the US cannot afford to significantly weaken ISIS, which they themselves nurtured and financed. Loss of investment is especially large hurting the image of the investors. In any case, to attack the Islamists have mainly Kurds, which for these purposes is actively trained and armed. But by the Kurds, the same Cancer not needed at all. It’s not their traditional area of residence. They are much more interesting to use received from US the weapons to fight against the Turks. Including in Turkey itself. That has led to the obvious accession of Turkey in the Syrian conflict, the forces of the regular army. In the end, the Turks are fighting the Kurds, venting on them (and through them, US) anger, not only for the ongoing conflicts on its territory, but a failed coup. Well, in this situation the Kurds not to attack the Shrine, it would be from the Turks to fight back.
And the United States for the first time in years are forced to seek the help of Russia to achieve at least the appearance of progress in the fight against ISIS, to have something to shake before the election. After all, within their own country in the media about Russia’s assistance can not mention.
In Russia the situation is also not called very good. It’s not bad, but became much more complex because of the weakness of Assad and his army. However his main objectives Russia is seeking. And this, remember, is not the preservation of the integrity of Syria and the victory of Assad. This lack of gas pipeline through Northern Syria (Latakia), though from Qatar (an ally of ISIS), though Iran (an ally of Assad) and control the area so that this construction would be impossible in the future. As I understand it, when our participation in the events in Syria began, the hope was that Assad’s forces together with the allies will be able to cope with ISIS and other radical groups of Islamists. The same Turkey in this confrontation of vigils or neutral (ideally), or opponent. The reality was more complicated, and forces, Assad is much less. And most likely the unity of Syria cannot be saved. In these circumstances, it is important for Russia to keep Assad’s control of Latakia, Aleppo are likely to be in the area of Turkish or mixed control. Part of the Northern territories will go to the Kurds. Who will control the Central and Eastern parts of the country, is not yet clear. Good or bad this division for Russia? Hard to say. The minimum task be performed. The maximum likely unrealistic. But even in such conditions Russia could skillfully lead the game. To take advantage of the us-Turkish conflict. As an example of the use of Iranian bases for the bombing of the Syrian Islamist forces tactical aviation is really a masterpiece. One may say that the idea failed, almost before it began. In fact, everything is different. This action originally was planned very short-term and political rather than military. And public Iranian protest is nothing more than an equally public act to maintain “face”. In fact, from a military point of view it’s very simple. Our frontal aviation has left Syria in a time when the Islamists entered service with powerful MANPADS, working at great heights. Given the proximity of our bases to Syrian conflict zones, every takeoff and landing were in danger of becoming a lottery with possible fatal for pilots. The use of bases in Iran is completely devoid of these weaknesses. As for the fact that this was done primarily in the interests of Iranians embroiled in the battles near Aleppo. Including and for this reason was able to negotiate with not the most simple relations between our countries. But most importantly it was a good example to the world. We are able to agree among themselves. And, if necessary, our planes nal Syria will in any quantity. Russia has a lot to offer Iran, if necessary. And it is exactly this message to the recipients came. Autumn in Syria is expected to hot and are difficult to predict. Although some major breakthroughs with any side it is difficult to wait. Now the relative maintenance of the status quo beneficial to all parties. Only the US can decide on senseless, but brilliant Scam for electoral purposes.
As for the fall in other countries, it is possible aggravation of the situation in Europe. Again, for the reason that the US imperative for Europe to bend to the formal vassalage, Britain needs a weak Europe for tractability, Europe itself is actually dysfunctional, Turkey no longer needed the Islamist camp in the country at this scale, and all the rest don’t care about her. But let’s wait and see.
In Russia something special do not wait. Including breakthroughs. The same change of the Minister of education and the bloated PR on this issue is more of a pre-election move before the 1st of September, rather than full-shift. However, this is a time when you made a mistake, I will be very happy. Elections waiting for boring and uneventful, and post-election protests lethargic. This convinces including election propaganda, almost all parties without exception. From political advertising rather sick, than a desire to visit the elections themselves. Because none of the parties do not believe. And it’s not disappointment in the government or the opposition, they are the same as they were. Just the situation itself has not yet matured. And when ripen, change from above hope is more than a revolt from below. The latter generally rarely ends with something meaningful and all the more good.
Finally, many traditional about the expected collapse of the ruble. Whether or not, don’t know. I can only say one thing. Reasons for the collapse of the no. No currency requirements, nor its deficit. Most of the year the currency, and so bought up the government and the Central Bank. But want to solve their problems at the expense of falling of a course may want many. Too easy to cover in this way their own schools. So we’ll see.
