Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a press conference on the results of the G20 summit between Moscow and Washington there is a convergence on the issue of Syria, the details of which will be announced in the coming days.
During the G20 summit on September 4-5, American media published details of a possible deal Russia and US on Syria, based on their own sources close to the White house. As stated by CNBC, the new deal will be discussed on cooperation in the field of intelligence, and coordinating strikes on terrorist groups.
In return, Russia should have an impact on Assad to his loyal troops ceased to bombard the object so-called moderate opposition, supported by Washington.
Informed that the basic problems of interaction of Russia and the USA in Syria is resolved and remains to agree on a few points,” said the American Secretary of state John Kerry. The need for the deal between Moscow and Washington, said at the weekend, and us leader Barack Obama. He said that without this Syrian peace process will not be able to move on to a new stage.
So far progress in the negotiations hindered the contradictions on the ground. Russia insisted that the United States held a “division” of the opposition forces and radical Islamist groups, which Russia considers a terrorist. Among them, the organization “Dzhebhat Fatah al-sham, formerly known as “dzhebhat an-Nusra”, which directly stated his affiliation with an international terrorist organization “al-Qaeda” (these organizations are prohibited on the territory of Russia and some other countries). The Kremlin believes that the US can use these groups to overthrow the regime of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad.
Washington, in turn, dissatisfied with the bombing carried out by aircraft and artillery of Assad, Russia’s ally.
After a meeting with Prime Minister of great Britain Teresa may, Obama said that the United States and Russia remain divided on the Syrian groups that need support, as well as the steps that need to be done first to ensure the cease-fire.
The ballast on the battlefield
The truce, which Washington and Moscow agreed in February, has long been not observed. The displeasure of the USA and also causing the situation in Aleppo, which is Sunday again came under siege from Pro-government forces. If the resistance in the city will be suppressed, it will become a great military victory for Damascus. It automatically will strengthen the negotiating position of Assad at the international peace process on Syria, which develops in Geneva.
However, a prolonged siege can strike at international Assad regime. According to the UN, in Aleppo, there are about 200 thousand inhabitants without access to food, water and medicine. The world organisation calls the situation in the city is a humanitarian disaster.
However, the situation at Aleppo may change, as in Syria develop the success of the Turkish military. They are nominally anti-terrorist operation since August 24, which increasingly resembles a full-fledged campaign against the local Kurdish armed groups. However, this is still plays into the hands of besieging Aleppo forces. Ankara actually refused to control its border with Syria, through which Islamist radicals have carried out supply routes. Now Turkey closed the border, “cutting off oxygen” to militants advancing on Aleppo.
Despite the fact that the capture of the city is the aim to achieve both Assad and Pro-Turkish groups in Syria, in this situation, they are opponents. “Turkey clears the way for the Free Syrian army (FSA), and it does not speak in favor of the government forces,” — says senior researcher of the Institute of Oriental studies Vladimir Akhmedov.
The fact that the original goal of the opposition umbrella organization of the SAA — the overthrow of the current regime in Damascus.
The expert also recalled that Turkey is fighting against Kurdish groups, which, in turn, help US. The presence in Syria of a hybrid situation when different parties to the conflict pursue protivopolozhnye goals, makes it difficult to reach agreement.
According to Akhmedov, the Turkish factor itself creates a new situation. If Turkey is really going to clear the North of Syria against the terrorist group “Islamic state” (the activities of this organization forbidden in Russia and some other countries) and other radical Islamists, this will provide an opportunity to strengthen the Pro-Western opposition resistance against armed forces loyal to Assad.
Most likely, the goal of Turkey is not a complete defeat of the army of Damascus. It will spoil only recently restored relations with Russia. Ankara is seeking to stake my claim in the post-war Syria, the expert believes. In this case, Moscow will have to negotiate with Ankara.
The time of consent
Putin, answering questions of journalists, gave to understand that the Russian side was aware of the military plans of Turkey invasion of Syria as a surprise to the Kremlin was not.
A meeting of leaders of Russia and the USA at the summit in China — most likely, their last presidential meeting. Obama will cease to lead the United States at the end of 2016. Putin will not attend the UN General Assembly on September 13 in new York, where the American President.
Breakthrough on Syria today is particularly important for Obama, which has little real foreign policy achievements. Meanwhile, as a Democrat, the current President of the United States is interested in winning in the upcoming elections in the US, his fellow party member, former Secretary of state Hillary Clinton.
The negotiations will continue until the resignation of the President of the United States has less than six months, emphasizes a leading Gulf State Analytics analyst Theodore Karasik. Time pressure Obama is likely to speed up Syrian agreement between Moscow and Washington, according to the source “Газеты.Ru”.
“Russia understands that Obama is a “lame duck”. The Russians also understand that the Clinton administration will be tougher towards Moscow, and so if an agreement is reached, it will certainly be subject to the audit,” added Karasik.
