The crisis passed, but the population does not notice the departure of the GDP dynamics from negative zone have not added weight to the wallets of Russians. Below the poverty line were five million people. This “new poor”, whose standard of living has fallen in 2014-2015. For the restoration of their well-being may take another few years.
Millions live below
The Russian presidential aide Andrei Belousov said that the exact price of the crisis — five million people, whose incomes fell below the subsistence level. Belousov dubbed them the “new poor”.
However, he stated that, overall, the economy got out of crisis. But to the point of equilibrium we came with higher levels of poverty. At the restoration of incomes of the population will take several years, says Belousov.
The adverse impact of the crisis on the wallets of Russians confirmed the sad statistics.
In the may Monitoring of socio-economic status of the population, prepared by the HSE, said that by the end of 2015 salary in Russia is equal to the wage level in Belarus (the comparison was carried out taking into account purchasing power parity).
Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are also rapidly closing the gap with Russia. In 2011 the average salary in the Central Asian Republic reached 70 percent of the Russian, in 2015 increased to 80 percent. The indicators of Azerbaijan — 73 and 88 percent, respectively. In nominal terms wages in Russia fell by 34 per cent, from $ 847 in 2014 to $ 558 in 2015.
Rosstat data are also not encouraging. In April, real incomes of Russians decreased by 7.1% compared to the same month of 2015. Nominal growth is purely symbolic: plus 0.1 percent. The average income in Russia — 31 342 rubles a month.
Real incomes of Russians decreased for two consecutive years, they will continue to decline in 2016
Photo: Viktor Korotayev / Kommersant
The welfare of the population in the last two years was falling, reminds the expert of the Analytical center under the government of Sophia Giuditta. In 2014, 0.3 percent in 2015 and 4.3 percent. To restore the level of 2013 revenue, the desired increase of 5.2 percent, said the expert in an interview with “Tape.ru”. “Thus, according to the latest data of Rosstat, in January-April 2016 dynamics on income negative (minus 4.7 percent). The decline greater than over the same period last year (minus 2.4 percent),” stated Sophia Giuditta.
Growth vs prosperity
The acute phase of the crisis the Russian economy has experienced. Agree with this and Belousov, Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev (no wonder he was last year so had a hard time finding the bottom), and President Vladimir Putin.
Authorities warn about the successes: the country’s foreign reserves are high (may 1 — 391,5 billion dollars), the size of the external debt — to five-year lows (of 516.1 billion dollars here, and liabilities of corporations and banks, which account for 92.1 per cent in the total external debt), trade surplus increased in 2015 to 11.2 billion dollars to 69.6 billion, and capital outflows — dropped sharply (from 152,9 billion to 58.1 billion).
“No wait!” — shouted the speaker in response to dire predictions about the future of the Russian economy. His Agency predicts that by the end of 2016, GDP will fall by just 0.2 percent. When compared with the figure last year — when the economy shrank by almost four percent, then indeed, it seems that the country climbed out of the pit.
But the “new poor” that does not help. Their incomes remain below 9 452 rubles (the cost of living). According to the Ministry of labor, in 2015 the poverty line were 19 million people.
On may 10 the Ministry of economic development published a scenario in which the peak of poverty in Russia will be in 2018: 13.9% (now, according to Belousov, 13%). The Ministry Alexei Ulyukayev expects that employers would save on salaries, but available funds allowed for their own development. This will serve as a source of economic growth. The formula is simple: poverty grows by reducing wages, but GDP will grow thanks to investment in production. Then the economy will restart, and incomes begin to recover.
In the worst case for the restoration of the welfare of Russians will take 10-15 years
Photo: Viktor Korotayev / Kommersant
Unprofitable years
Experts interviewed “Tape.<url>”, believe that to return to their previous level of living will require more than one year. For growth in real incomes must meet a range of conditions — the stars have come together so that millions of Russians have returned from beyond the threshold of poverty.
“You want economic growth, and it might take several years before the company starts to raise payroll, and budget there will be funds to increase revenue in the public sector, state employees and pensioners”, — said the chief economist BCS financial group Vladimir Tikhomirov. The expert added that still needs to grow the global economy, and oil prices should not decrease. He expects real incomes of the population in 2016 will fall by 0.8 percent compared to 2015 and 2017 will grow by 0.7 percent.
Advisor on macroeconomics General Director of the brokerage house “OTKRITIE” Sergey Chestnov more pessimistic. In the case of a structural economic crisis for the restoration of prosperity will take 10-15 years, he said.
Model Assembly
To overcome this structural crisis requires appropriate reform. From high tribunes repeatedly calls for profound transformations. But while the economy is changing only due to strong external pressure — drop in oil prices (this affects the budget) and sanctions (a policy of import substitution and of bradenburg allow domestic agriculture to grow). About some radical changes, due to internal reasons, can not speak.
The government, apparently, do not configured for breakthrough reforms. 25 may was held the session of Economic Council under the President. According to the results there was not one specific program (their plans introduced by the former Minister of Finance Alexey Kudrin and the head of the Stolypin club, the business Ombudsman Boris Titov). Decided to hold similar meetings over the next year and a half. They will speak, debate and discuss.
You need to carry out reforms, the government understands this. But the specific transformation programme has not yet selected
Photo: Viktor Korotayev / Kommersant
The current economic downturn caused by the problems of the Russian economy, says the head of chair of political economy, Plekhanov Russian University of Economics Ruslan Dzarasov. It is focused on exports of raw materials, especially energy resources. The manufacturing industry together with science and education has fallen by the wayside. In his opinion, the government aims to keep this model, with the result that the burden of the crisis is transferred to the population. “Hence the growth of poverty. To stop him, it is necessary to change the model of development,” he commented. Otherwise, further deterioration of living standards of Russians is inevitable, I am sure Ruslan Dzarasov.
From Titov Kudrin disputes with the number of poor in the country is not reduced. Do not grow the income of people and from ads on the exit from the crisis. Return to the previous level of life may be delayed for several years.
