This is my article on the unity of the forecast of Ministry of economic development and personnel policy of the Kremlin came out today in the “Free press”
The economic development Ministry presented the forecast of development of economy of Russia till 2035. In it, as we already know, three options. All as if taken aback the first option is the base on which Russia will slide through two decades to the level of the poorest countries in the world. But what in it new? Is all the current socio-economic policy of the state is not a sample embodiment of this “basic” scenario in life?
TRUTHS
Let me explain. Will have to remind you that the world’s poorest countries is not those who do not have natural resources or are poor for any more than is dictated by objective reasons. The poorest countries are those in which the society is weak and fragmented, and the oligarchy strong and independent from that of society itself. That is, the present, and without the sensational forecast of economic development, there is every reason in the foreseeable future to be exactly in this category – the poorest countries in the world.
Of course there are exceptions, such as some of the monarchy in the Persian Gulf, in which the scale of the wealth (black gold), sent from above, such that, with little population, it is possible to provide subjects with all necessary without significant damage to the propertied power and property. But these exceptions are of a purely temporary nature. Some of these States will find its way of modernization: invest in education, science, production diversification, and, therefore, will come to different structure of society, a different system of relations between society and power. Those who in this way will not go, doomed, ultimately, to the degradation and loss of the current source of wealth: either it one way or the other, will be taken away, or it, as the scientific-technological development of the world, just cease to represent such a value.
WAITING FOR MERCY
There is the forecast of Ministry of economic development and interim version, which is, like, slightly better. But not because we are taking action, but only in the view that world oil prices (more precisely, those in the world who determines these prices) in the long term can be more merciful to us than today.
In this sense, first of all, it seems, to put it mildly, somewhat absurd and, from the point of view of state control, extremely irrational to contain the whole huge Ministry, but not involved in designing the national economy, and, in fact, only a prediction. For this it is sufficient a relatively small and cost incomparably cheaper prognostic Bureau and several independent prognostic groups.
WAITING FOR A MIRACLE
And, of course, as always, there is a third option – optimistic. Kind of like “target”. There is not only expectation of mercy, but also based on certain reforms. But what? And where did they come from.
Analysts sagely discussing whether to implement the option and not the base, leading us nowhere, but this is the “target” and what it needs. But it has long been evident. It is imperative to change the whole model, and not “economic development” (which we have a model of stagnation and worsening of the backlog), but the economic, social, and, therefore, … political system.
It is necessary to stipulate that the change of the political system, of course, it would be possible to wait. But only under one condition: if the current political system would give us at least some chance of not changing by itself, however, the model of economic and social change.
But nothing encouraging, in addition to General conversations, we, unfortunately, never see.
AND THERE ON THE SHIP, CAPTAIN?
Imagine that the ship is urgently forced to changed the team. And now a new captain and boatswain things are going. Quite naturally, to something (some kind of disorder) was surprised, even somewhat indignant. But is it appropriate surprise and righteous indignation, if for the past fifteen years no one, except themselves, this ship is not commanded?
And what have we? Then our President suddenly announced that we have somehow “90s happened” that agriculture is not protected from the suppression of external competitors, the Deputy Prime Minister “come to their senses” and offer to stop buying foreign civil aircraft, Yes, and so convincingly justify what and why the current state of Affairs is completely unacceptable. But all of this is – at the end of the second decade of the reign of this President, and if not mistaken, for decades the Board of the respective Deputy Prime Minister.
So, in the end, ever will the thing is more common these regular conversations?
TRAPPED BY ITS OWN RECENT DECISIONS
But need is not immediate “counter-sanctions” and their justification from the top of the mouth, but legislated long – fifteen or twenty years – program sector-by-sector to protect its market.
It would seem obvious. What prevents this?
It is known that such do not allow the rules of the WTO, where we finally passed not in the “dashing 90”, and most recently in the summer of 2012.
And it turns out quite shizofrenicheskie picture: Syria and the Donbass, we, like, argue with the West, but at a fundamental – what will give us the strength tomorrow (including, and reasonable to Express their will, and to help allies), or finally we will finish – as it is to argue with shy.
FRAMES FOR A SPECIFIC TASK
So there or here?
While “there”: our future poverty is not only projected a special Ministry, which would be correctly described as “forecast economic forecast”, but also deliberately programmed, constructed. And not the notorious “liberal economic bloc”, who blame the media almost officially allowed, but most that neither is the Kremlin.
Now, many are asking: what to expect from the new Duma?
But the answer is quite meekly the will actually (according to our “concepts”) of their superiors – the President’s administration.
And what to expect from this administration?
It is worth to pay attention to the recent symbolic decision of the head of state. Underline: I would not specifically write about it, if not this is another prediction of our future extinction from economic development. But coupled with him, this decision becomes particularly significant. I mean the appointment of a Deputy head of the presidential administration in charge of the whole internal policy of the state, Sergei Kiriyenko. What he told us remember? Let me remind you.
The August 1998 default (and even with the loss of “stabilization” IMF tranche at 4.9 billion dollars). And recommendation of the special Commission of Council of Federation on investigation of causes and circumstances of default never to make this person in any responsible position. Nevertheless, Kiriyenko was then appointed a presidential envoy, and then head of Minatom. And as the episode nominated deputies from the extreme right (prevarications) forces. If anyone has forgotten, let me remind you of the Gaidar-Chubais beginning of the two thousandth slogan: “Putin – in presidents, Kirienko – in the premiere!”.
Finally, just in relation to the forecasts and the planned scenarios, it is worth Recalling that it is from the lips of this man, immediately after his appointment as Prime Minister in 1998-m to year, was made a historic statement, saying that Russia is rather a poor country.
And the fact that this “poor” of the country over the past nearly two decades, managed to extort resources in building more than a hundred billionaires, is like, is not evidence of the opposite. Namely, that the country is extremely rich, but only manage out of what is unfair. And, from the point of view of the interests of the whole society, is extremely inefficient.
In the main, according to the observed HR policy, we have in the foreseeable future there is not the slightest chance of a change.
