Unrepresented electorate today is more real than the mythical “Putin’s majority” and “democratic electorate”. Quite activation of one or two minorities are not counted in September, and anonymous Russia will cease to exist, and in its place will appear the real country. The country’s transition to a new, post-Putin, the state began spontaneously and uncontrollably coming from different angles.
Back in the spring of the term “politicization” is ridiculed. Six months later, and the politicization became mainstream. Daddy, who first carried the President now sell to the public, poorly disguised as “investigative journalism”. Information do not hold back inside the unit – why? New villas, yachts, planes and offshore, Kremlin environment. Who is Pyotr Kolbin? Do you have Alina Kabaeva’s grandmother, and Sergei Kiriyenko, the political team? No one refuses to discuss the curious! Leaks about appointments, true or false, talk about internal struggle. And its members are called to empathize. Turned “waste glasnost”.
Bashful most
Sociologists zero memorable phenomenon of equivocation supporters of Zhirinovsky: those ashamed to admit that voting for the liberal democratic party. Today, explaining the failure of the September exit polls, pollsters for the first time said the same evasiveness voters of “United Russia”. Voting for power, ashamed of her arespectable.
The failure of ideological mobilization of the “Putin majority” rename “the turnout problem” and tried to forget. The liberal discourse in this election lost, but not won and the hawk postkrymsky. The cawing of hawks filled pauses boring arena of debate. But less than 20% of the actual support by the voters force the government to proceed to the construction of some other system of protection. Which again pushes the political scene in Russia.
The Pro-government majority in the Duma loosely, diverse and dysfunctional. It is a difficulty, not a means. However, in the fantasies of the Kremlin it looks like a mock-triumphant majority in 2018. Which will vote for Putin or whoever he designates. Supporting all the modifications of the Constitution which required.
The constitutional majority in the Duma is a temporary colony of diverse minorities. “United Russia” drew in a lot of political agendas, and those are not neutral. Interests attract interest together with their carriers. Is the crystallization of internal factions with which to fight Volodin, along with five leaders of the parliamentary groups.
A trifle unconstitutional “constitutional majority”: the President, in his own words, “appointed” Chairman of the State Duma. But he sent his assistant to the Duma, Putin has undermined volodinskaya hardware version of the internal policy. Putting Kiriyenko her handler, she must now pursue a policy personally. On the other, there is no time.
Meanwhile, domestic policy has suddenly become a world.
The end of depoliticization on the world stage
In the summer of 2014 of a downed Malaysian “Boeing” forced Moscow to look for a strategic way out of the terrible military escalation. A year later, the yield found on the Syrian track. Leaving Donbass to rot in the negotiations under the Minsk agreements, Moscow has dedicated himself to a new successful and safe, it seemed, the escalation of the middle East borders.
Escalation can drown the next, but not completely. A year has passed, and the ghosts of past escalations have begun to return to Moscow. The Kremlin has correctly calculated that the “theatre of Putin” needs the West so that it will be in the game and with a shortage of trumps. The Kremlin, however, did not guess what game he is involved – what it looks like. The result is the birthday of Vladimir Putin together a variety of things.
Silly demonstration of hacking the forces of Moscow were quickly accepted by the American camp of Democrats as a valuable electoral motive for unity. Attempt to leave Syria, while maintaining a strengthened Assad, failed – and then Moscow expected used in Aleppo, the style of the bombing of Grozny in 1999-2000.
All of these allegedly engaged in by a single man, the President. He often asks out loud “do not politicize it,” because the policy only prevents him to serve the national interest.
By that time Russia already 15 years lived in conditions of de-politicization, that is, removal of any of the contending forces with a publicly visible scene. The stage was filled, also intentionally, scenery and actors managed democracy. Its essence can be defined as substitution therapy driven policy. Political actors, however, remained to amuse an audience only one – harandChernyh characters, a conventional and a little comical. Policies ceased to represent the interests and fight for the expression of eternal values. On the contrary, the values began to look like folly of the politicians, the interest which supposedly is one: to stay in power, her cake in her television Studio.
Had spent itself, the theatre of depoliticization has come to an end after the murder of Boris Nemtsov. For the managed democracy the blood at the scene was overkill. From the first steps of the investigation reported to the city of Grozny, the transformation began.
Fauna of depoliticization
Ten years of theatre of depoliticization could be gone in anywhere that there was viewership, any conditional language. Heartbreaking curse the enemies and the pledge of allegiance of Russia, tracing paper with politematicheskaya (like “Russia, forward!”) became symbols of the language.
The political conflict seriously, and the Russian depositiona scene abhors seriousness. What was the depoliticization of public policy? It is a farce transformations, hyperbole, monstrous masks and game metaphors. Even in 2014, the bloody bitterness of the split in Ukraine on Russian television exaggerated, bringing to vaudeville scenes. In the construction of the line news typecasting guessed stylized movies “Intervention” and “Green van”.
Today, political conflict is back on the public scene, and, returning, he intensificare a farce. And the language of farce unfit for debate. Fake speech, exaggerated feelings, forced absurdist themes are functional only in one respect. Doubling public scene, they cut the area politicize apolitical and balance. The last stronghold must be “most”.
Continue to say something about censorship, something about the propaganda on television, but it’s yesterday. The absurdity of the Kremlin TV functional. Gregory of Votes were talking about “Crimean firewall”. But our firewall is not as the institution of censorship as a tool lobotomist: “Ostankino” blocks the political signal. Breaking politicized environment from depoliticising, it builds the shielding gasket between the centers of politicization and multi-million mass of celeberation.
By itself, the politicization does not break this isolation and the barrier. Why? Because the barrier is not neutral, it is membrane. Active politicized minorities selectively drawn into the world of mediaevalia in an unexpected role. Remaining politically unrepresented, they played in teleinformatic liberal Piero, comical spoof of a European discourse.
The performance of the majority hides the life of the Russian nation. Its real multiplicity, its ideological and human pluralism look something incoherent. The fact that the ideology was called by an overwhelming majority – only audience of the TV broadcast. In contrast to the Soviet propaganda of the mass isolates the policy is not a ban on “negativity”, and the screens forced fascinating content is negative and almost entirely false.
New interests caricaturist, teach the Russian public to disregard its own differences. This slows down the overall politicization of the country, but can not stop it.
Russia unrepresented
Often talking about a new majority; Andrew Pepper here, even on “without Putin”. It is appropriate to ask: why is it even the majority?
Looking back in search of a majority, we see its ruins. Hence, it is material of a new scene. If you want more, you can call it a “Putin”, but this field game for everyone who can play such a large instrument. Most bands performed, and will unfold their struggle. The end of the majority – the second phase of politicization. Actors scene 2017-2018 minorities becoming players, who then become the new electorates. (Exactly the same happened with the mainland Pro-democracy majority in 1991-1996.)
Vosmidesyatitonnye the rating of trust to Vladimir Putin ominously close vosmidesyatitonnye the percentage of people that the question “Can you influence the decision-making in the country?” answer “No!” (according to surveys by the Levada center. Of them “definitely no” – 49% and “probably not” – 38%). “The vast majority” statement is no effect in Russia.
It is true that minorities have not yet form a political nation. Only 7%, coming into contact with power, according to them, get what they need. Only 18% of the entire count on protection and support from the state; 20% of accidents claim that their life is dependent on power. They are all minorities. A minority is in reality the “ruling majority.”
Unrepresented minorities today the real ghosts of the “Putin majority” or “democratic electorate”. The debate about the interests of minorities, there are real groups inhabiting Russia, was not carried out during the elections. Quite activation of one or two minorities, not regarded in September, and anonymous most will vanish and in its place will appear different Russia. The Kremlin was involved in the transitional era – unlocks from it only the anti-Kremlin opposition. Savoring corruption news distracts her from her work on mandatory political task. But the scene is now – and the other mark.
The colonization of the budget
An influential minority in the country also have – apparently, 12%. Those who question the Levada center answer is “Yes impact”. They just submitted: 12 million voters – “suppliers of the majority,” almost half of the electorate “United Russia” played the role of strongholds in the collapse of the urban turnout. Machine production of the most finally tuned. Having lost legitimacy, it connected with the Fund “aid to backward areas” of the revenues of the Federal budget. Chechnya, Ingushetia, Tuva, Tatarstan, and Bashkortostan. And, of course, coal Emirate Aman Tuleev. What to say about that?
It again the minority. The premium on well-paid minority. In addition to budget transfers, the prize includes the promotion of local non-execution of laws. At the center is so sensitive to separatist trends, pays no attention. Champion politicization 2016 Ramzan Kadyrov immediately after the elections held probing. The centre does not approve of the struggle of the Chechen boys? Well, the true Center will pay him money. Some of the collected in the regions of income tax will be redirected in favor of “the poorest”. But the poorest those who faithfully voted for power. This is their prize for September 18, in addition to the previously issued advance payments for the first half (Chechnya increased by 14%, and Ingushetia, 30% – despite the fact that the transfers of the RF subjects increased by 12%).
Fiscal Empire
Unleash the power with the economic stagnation of the two forms of seduction: tax penalty and inflation. They meet the strategies vying for influence in the Kremlin. Fiscal-penalty temptation is still in the mainstream. The task of the Council will be the reorganization of the energy impoverished Empire in Empire fiscal penalties. But for pressing and levies Russian need suspense or notebook – we have to see more random repression with a smaller number of repressive laws.
And redeployment immediately came under fire hardware razrabotala dirt. How else could wait young career majors FSB and SK? They went on the attack, and the mud is already longer than was expected. The arrests of the governors. Angered rather than frightened by the threat of jail, land bosses moved.
Return policy accelerated
Save the visibility of the majority, the government discourages wanting to touch it. Powerless to mobilize ideologically, it increases anxiety. Shelters and plutonium a little. Increased demand for mobile units voluntary peddlers of fear. The revived interest to mobilized minorities, which are easy to throw in the area of breakthrough. Among them, turned the competition for the role of head of budget users.
Share, like “lumareta” and the attack on the Sakharov center will be more. The case of radicalization now takes on the power of its ruling minority.
The consensus of protest
The myth of “protest” – God left-wing textbooks of political science. The protest myth tells dynamics to describe social conditions as “bubbling up”, “hidden, but portending” something. And nespavost protest utopias attributes “vsepoddaneyshiy the power of the regime”. Conspiracy theories common to protest the Pro-Kremlin forces, the opposition and the secret police. She turns away from the Kremlin’s loyalty to Russian society. In my country the government is behaving anxiously and conspiratorial, like she was in defense.
The agenda of the transition period were designated the alternative to the development of intelligence. FSB stands in front of an explicit (clear for all in power) the fact that the forces that are actively hostile to Vladimir Putin, in Russia. Here are two ways. One – narrowing the range of tasks to limit the purpose of real conspiracies extremist environments and be real hostile penetration from the outside. At the same time, increasing demands on declining competence.
The second vector is simple and bad: the enemy must be invented! But not to dwell on the status quo. Will have to go further, mobilizing television production resources with small groups of thugs willing (consciously and selfishly) to act as their asset.
The choice has not been made.
Lumiera, as the style of the opposition
The main claim to the liberal environment in the absence of her authority or competence. Worse, that she ceases to be an obstacle to the recklessness of power.
Navalny said about democratic voters “up to 25% in major cities” – all Democrats it merges into a Single Democracy. The myth of a unified democratic electorate is equal to a single myth of Putin’s majority and tells about tactics. To the extent that the voter is democratic, it is conflicting and heterogeneous. His group does not want to deal with each other, they are mutually squeamish.
Reaction to lumiera further confirmed that the liberal democratic environment apart. Lumiera, revealed the structure of neurosis apolitical. The exhibition, which threw up some idiot and following enforcement of the asset (under the banner of “Officers of Russia”), no closed – shut down by the owners. Why? After talking with people who does not represent anyone. That was easy to figure out dialing the phone number of the Public chamber. But the owners didn’t call. Dodoma their political choice, they were out of the game.
Acted as electors of the opposition, not go to the polls. But so does the opposition now that the election is behind us. Not attempting to communicate with a group of unrepresented interests, or even elected to the Duma with single-seat districts, it closes itself.
The money mandate
About the potential mandate in the Duma said all offered all kinds of hyperbole. Odnomandatniki – proteges in their constituencies, ambassadors of a new legitimacy. Lobbyists interests over land in contrast to spisochnik. On the other hand, they are patchwork gasket for megabreccia “United Russia”. A homogeneous reaction mass, aggressive-obedient majority… So we hastily threw the facts guesses, trying not to look at reality.
However, it is not clear how will the accretion of governors with single-seat districts. Will be their political unions, today it is unsafe for the heads of regions? Or odnomandatniki will take volodinskaya housing and communal horizons – not on the public garden and the neighborhood? The clarity of positions does not occur in the course of performances in television. And that will do the MP with the threat of bankruptcy of municipalities and local businesses.
The dispute about the role of the mandate in the new Duma is not a dispute about “protest” and “ideology”. This is a dispute about the money invested in local business. The money is not invested in the beauty of the figures of the “majority”. For the year, no less than 75-76 regions will remain in deficit and their debts reached the amount of about three trillion rubles. Naturally, deputies are waiting for the redistribution of the budget, albeit non-public and apolitical. But the money now needs an “electoral national Bolsheviks” – the regions and districts where the majority is done.
Will be around the political investment of land required to maintain the new political communication? That’s where the challenge of extra-parliamentary opposition. Regions should invest more money to protect its big.
Transitional time
The country’s transition to a new state spontaneously began from different points. He does not yet have a General direction, there is no mainstream. The future is described as a mystery or “blind spot” (K. Haase). But what if we have in mind, before eyes wide shut – the field arrangement of the figures and forces of the transitional time?
Lack of understanding of the Kremlin reshuffle has become an embarrassment for the functionaries of the government. Not knowing Russia, the Kremlin well knew their mode of control and its boundaries. Boundaries are swept away by the escalations, actions were unrestrained. The misunderstanding of the logic of power of its own device are the new political factor. The President is a symbol and Shrine of the System, now only one of those who are waiting for clarification of the transitional policy. Moment unpleasant coincided with the end of his term of office.
There is something comical and pedagogically instructive. Because the displaced were all centres of an alternative agenda, removed her carriers and on the Russian scene there was nothing left, except… of the future! One impenetrable future, which includes fear, hatred, and volume of Ivan Ilyin under the mouse.
Is a transitional time, with unpredictable breakages of terms and an unknown agenda. Poor Putin, what a smile history! Dreamy conservative, enemy of the concepts of “business climate”, “public trust”, and “world order”, aging, goes to rendezvous with working with Russia, not afraid of difficulties of life and himself. The country is in transition to something new. Anyway, something else than he is.
