Analysts at Sberbank CIB investment “daughter” of Sberbank — predict a weakening of the Russian currency to the level of 75 rubles per dollar, if the negotiations on the freezing of oil production in Doha will fail, according to the Rambler News Service.
Brent oil drops in this case below 35 dollars per barrel. With the successful outcome of the summit, analysts are 65 rubles per dollar and $ 45 per barrel.
“If the Doha negotiations fail, we will see the price of Brent crude oil at 35 per barrel or below, and pair dollar/ruble in the range of 70-75 rubles. However, we do not expect a new fall in the price of Brent below $ 30 per barrel,” reads the review commodity and currency markets.
In the framework of the base scenario Sberbank CIB, the probability of reaching an agreement between oil-producing countries without Iran’s participation was 35 per cent. The likelihood that Iran will join frost is 30 per cent. The possibility of failure of the summit in Doha is estimated at 20 percent.
The summit in Doha (Qatar) on April 17, will be attended by representatives of 16 countries, which account for more than half of world oil production. A number of key market players such as Iran, Brazil, and Libya have declared that do not intend to limit the extraction. Libya refused to participate in the summit.
