Prospects of the Russian economy and the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate is currently 90% dependent on external factors. Such opinion was stated today to journalists the chief economist of Saxo Bank Steen Jakobsen.
According to his estimates, the fall in Russia’s GDP in 2016 will be about 2%, while inflation will slow down to 6-5,5%, informs “Finmarket”.
“Unfortunately, the lack of reforms and structural changes reduces the control of the government of the Russian Federation on economic situation in Russia, which depends heavily on external factors,” said Jacobsen.
Earlier Wednesday, the world Bank (WB) has lowered its forecast for the decline of the Russian economy in the current year. Under the baseline scenario, the decline will amount to 1.9%, while in December the Bank expected it at 0.7%. This decision is explained by the decline in world oil prices.
“The Russian economy has a long road to recovery. Negative factors contributing to the onset of the recession in Russia, showing some signs of weakness. However, according to the current reference scenario of the world Bank, in 2016 is expected to again further reduce the Russian economy by 1.9%. In 2017 is projected to resume positive, although insignificant, GDP growth of 1.1%,” the economists said.
Thus, the forecast for 2017 was also slightly inferior to that of the WB expected growth at 1.3%.
