New industrialization and the abandonment of raw needle – 10 years Russia fed ephemeral slogans, the officials responsible for economic development of the country, and scurrying around them experts. Discussion about the capacity of the Cabinet and the financial and economic strategists of the state has been simmering for a minute. Opposing camps of liberals (Kudrin, Siluanov, Ulyukaev, Elvira) and statists (eyes, Delyagin, Koltashov and joined them “Shipilov” in the face of the business Ombudsman Titov) ready to tear each other apart for the right intellectually to accompany economic restructuring.
Everyone understands the process differently. Some as a total import substitution in all areas (by the way, almost reached the ceiling under the current monetary policy) – from potatoes to “IPhone”. Other – as a large-scale reform, the success of which will depend on subtle matter – the democratization of power, economy and society (the socialists and the liberals interpretiruya all three of evolution in its own way). On the fingers can not explain it even to the ruling class, not what the people, because it’s complicated, without 500 grams of “Russian elixir” is unclear. And, apparently, that is why the reform scenario no hurry to implement.
That it, the restructuring has already begun – almost no one doubts. Discussion remain the drivers for further change – free competition or political will, and the degree of radicalization in the future. President Putin says he will dispense with the “shock therapies” (radical Kudrin). Although there are professionals who do beat the alarm. The head of Sberbank German Gref in the program “Pozner” said that the oil age will come to an end by 2030 year.
The current 50-51 dollar per barrel while that of strategic raw materials, may become the Swan song of OPEC and exporters of muddy oily sludge. This means that Russia needs to approach this date fully prepared. Expensive oil may not return ever. And it’s not just the shale revolution, which leaves not the raw materials-conservatives, and that the hydrocarbons in these volumes will be simply useless. American and Chinese automotive industries in full master electric cars. Release them already, not 5 pieces per year, and thousands and tens of thousands. Never before internal combustion engines were not as close to dinosaurs as it is now. The price of the products there is no space, cheaper SUV business class. If all goes according to plan, the “country gas station” will have a very hard time.
The man in the street, carefully watching the news, of course, will say: “we, Too, discovered America! Russia all by hook or by crook refuses this twisted way, squeezing the maximum in the current crisis conditions.” We develop agriculture, produce spacecraft, rockets, build nuclear reactors, export an excellent weapon, revived the air and shipbuilding. It seems to be the case for small – to increase the volume, increase profitability, pointeresovatsya with the Eurasian Union – and sleep.
But not so simple. To withdraw from dependence on raw materials is half the battle and a quarter of difficulties to be overcome the national elite and the population. The threat of Russia as a state, lies in the other. Leading economies of the world are moving to the so-called sixth technological order – an economic model based on Informatics, nanotechnology and molecular chemistry, and physics. A feature of this industrial revolution will be the creation of industry with less energy consumption, material consumption and labor costs. Businesses and their owners to make a profit will no longer require a huge amount of oil and gas. First and foremost, brains, ideas and start-up capital. And this will have to accept.
Is ahead of the rest of the United States had, as of 2013 th year 5% of the economy of the future, which should reach the peak of its efficiency to the 2030-th year. Who then will think about the huge national debt, if the Yankees get to change the rules of the market, leaving everything else, including the Europeans the opportunity to do screwdriver Assembly?
Russia, it seems, too beats thumbs and not picking his nose. During the Medvedev era of nanotechnology and innovation do not get off your tongue, but the massive use in industry and the service sector they still not find. Moreover, only 10% of production at the same time correspond to the “fifth way” – and this is robotics, computer science, microelectronics. And those same air and ship building, which boasted supporters “coming off the oil needle” is fairly archaic, the fourth way, which does not go far. In order not to lag hopelessly, would have to go into the future, avoiding the present. And how to do it, if smartphones and computers with tag Made in Russia manufactured and sold in small batches? This question will only convincing answer and the liberals, and statists of the expert pool.
Is and “green energy” from renewable resources, which will drive some more nails in the coffin of hydrocarbon dictatorship. That’s just to develop it in the polar latitudes and unprofitable and problematic. And we throw another few steps back, compared to the USA, Japan and China. Saudi Arabia, Iran and Venezuela in this situation, as future victims of global capital, is to relax and have fun. Russia, however, feeling well in comparison with deceased Publikovani, but no more, have pretty and, most importantly, effectively to work hard in order to join the economic dead in the post-oil era.
Explorer Noteru.com Sergey Runco
