In opposition to c NATO Russia might use Belarus to create conventional and hybrid threats to Western countries and Ukraine.
This is stated in the report of the Center for strategic and political studies “Belarus in the context of confrontation between NATO-Russia: Threats and challenges to the sovereignty, independence and national security. Strategic insights and recommendations”. The authors of the report are the leaders Arseny sivitsky and Yuri Tsarik, which are often called Pro-government analysts.
Unprecedented pressure
In their report they noted the unprecedented political and military pressure that is being put to Belarus by Russia. According to analysts, this pressure is connected with the attempts of the Russian leadership to engage Belarus in its ongoing comprehensive, including military, confrontation with the West. The strategic goal of this policy is undermining the Euro-Atlantic unity, including the disintegration of the EU and NATO.
“If until the second half of 2015, Belarus remained largely on the periphery of the confrontation between Russia and the West, July-August 2015, and especially in the spring of 2016, “the Belarusian issue” becomes one of the Central foreign policy and military-political agenda of the Russian leadership”, — underline analysts.
In their opinion, an extreme manifestation of Moscow’s pressure on Minsk was the placement on the border with Belarus the Russian troops in quantities potentially sufficient to implement on the territory of Belarus measures of the “hybrid war”, similar in scale to those implemented in the East of Ukraine.
“Organized by the Russian side of the incident reports about the “terrorist threat in the Crimea”, and the subsequent bringing of the armed forces to combat readiness confirms the Kremlin’s willingness to use a provocation to escalate tension and to create occasions for active intervention. This step is aimed at intimidating Western countries, reducing their motivation in relation to the policy of containment of Russia. Moreover, devaluing “the Minsk process” and attracting attention to Ukraine, this crisis, “unleashes” the Kremlin’s aggressive actions against the Republic of Belarus”, — analysts say.
A significant role of Belarus
In their opinion, a significant role of Belarus in the foreign policy ambitions of Russia due to several circumstances.
First, maintaining his neutral position towards the Ukrainian crisis, as well as full and effective control over its own territory, Belarus acts as a significant donor of regional stability and security.
“A hypothetical inability of Russia to use the territory of Belarus for aggressive actions against third countries makes a significant contribution to limiting the escalation of tensions in the region and, thus, containment of Russia”, — the report says.
Secondly, being an ally of Russia in the framework of defensive alliances (CSTO, the Union state, Belarus is making an important contribution to maintaining Russia’s defense capability.
“Closing of the Western strategic direction and simultaneously conducting a purely defensive policy, and implementing confidence-building measures with NATO countries, Belarus provides full neutralization of the military threat in this area”, — analysts say.
Thirdly, Belarus, with relations of comprehensive strategic partnership with China, the rapidly developing positive relationship with the US and the EU and at the same time relations with Russia, acting as a potentially important area of international cooperation, contributing to the reduction of the role of power factor in international relations.
Ultimately, according to the Center for strategic and political studies, described the role of Belarus in the international arena directly contradict the previously described strategy of the Russian side.
“For this reason, Moscow’s strategy directly dictates the necessity of changes in the international situation and the status of Belarus. In particular, for the implementation of the strategic plan of Moscow requires the transformation of the Republic of Belarus of donor security and stability in the source of multiple challenges and threats to security and stability NATO countries and Ukraine”, — analysts say.
“The grey zone”
In their opinion, to achieve this goal, Russia’s actions towards Belarus will be comprehensive and include the whole range of measures from direct military intervention and diplomatic pressure to bribe officials and inspiring riots.
The result of these actions, experts say, should be a sharp change in the status of the territory of Belarus and its transformation into a hotbed of conflict, source of risks and threats to nearby countries.
“From the sovereign state of Belarus should become a “gray area” — the territory on which and through which the Russian Federation will project power and manage conflict dynamics in the region”, — emphasized in the report.
For this reason, the deployment of Russian troops on the border with Belarus is carried out in such a way as to provide the solution to the problem of power projection in a fairly short period of time.
In particular, Russian troops are grouped in area of Klintsy, Bryansk region and Yelnya of the Smolensk region, which allows them in a short time (8-16 hours) to reach on the territory of Belarus Gomel and Orsha.
“This step, in turn, opens the way for an attack on the Minsk, Gomel and Orsha directions in the Vitebsk and on the border with Latvia with the direction of Orsha, Mogilev, Orsha direction, Bobruisk and Gomel areas, Belarus-the Ukrainian border with access to Kiev and Chernigov and Gomel directions”, — stated in the report.
In the case of incapacity, and the Supreme commander of the military leadership as a whole, analysts warn, the Russian troops will have the opportunity to rapidly gain control of critical infrastructure in most parts of the territory of Belarus, and control of such critical objects, and communication channels (including Railways and roads) is a sufficient condition for the overall control of the Russian side over Belarus.
“In the next phase, this will allow Russia not only to increase tension in the region, and, if necessary, to organize provocations on separate sites in the Western, northwestern and southern borders of Belarus, attributing these provocations, the actions of the Belarusian side, or anonymous subjects (e.g., organized crime)”, — experts say.
According to them, created on the place of Belarus in the “gray zone”, thus, has a complex nature and is characterized by the multiplicity of objective functions.
In particular, it represents a bridgehead, which, by virtue of its specific integration in the regional and international environment allows you to use a wide range of measures to manage the conflict dynamics in the region and even beyond: from humanitarian cooperation to a military attack.
“Without a doubt, the creation of such “gray zone” on the territory of Belarus will accelerate the destruction of the existing architecture of international security, and for the people of Belarus will turn into a national disaster“, concluded the Center for strategic and political studies.
Alexander Yaroshevich
