The Russian economy continues to fall. For the first nine months of this year, GDP fell by 0.6% in the third quarter by 0.4%. While there are no fundamental preconditions for the acceleration of the economy. Consumption crushed, savings grow, but not converted into investments. The business continues to keep the “investment pause”, considering the situation in the economy and the government’s policy of “indefinite”.
The decline of Russia’s GDP in the third quarter was 0.4%, for the year overall is expected to decline by 0.5–0.6%, said Alexei Ulyukayev. “I remind you that last year we ended with a figure of 3.7% (the decline in GDP. — “Газета.Ru”). The first quarter of this year — a minus of 1.2% over the second quarter of minus 0.6%, the third quarter by only 0.4%”, — said the Minister, speaking on Wednesday, October 26, at the government hour in the Federation Council.
It should be noted that the assessment of the third quarter, the Department is improving literally day by day. Before the performance of the speaker on 25 October, his Deputy, Alexei Vedev said GDP fell in the third quarter by 0.5%. At this rate, by the time of the publication of official data can be in plus out.
However, the fact that the recession in Russia is almost over, say domestic and foreign experts. Even the Center of the HSE, which has long issued dire predictions and which was opposed by the Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev, in its latest Bulletin “Comments on government and business” with reservations, but admitted it.
“The positive trend is too timid. On the other hand, the most acute phase of the recession has apparently passed. No new shocks to the sharp deterioration will not be”, — says Sergei Smirnov of the centre of development.
According to analysts, the HSE, the composite leading index (SDI) more or less grew steadily since may last year, but until recently he remained in the negative region.
In September 2016 it for the first time since February 2013 — was above zero (+0.2 percent).
Moody’s recently changed the Outlook on the Russian banking sector from “negative” to “stable”.
“The slow economic recovery and the stabilization of the macroeconomic indicators in Russia will improve the operating environment for banks. In this regard, we expect to improve the profitability of the banks and preserve their capital”, — explains the decision of the Agency Vice-President, senior credit analyst at Moody’s Irakli Pipia. According to the forecast Agency, Russia’s GDP will fall by 1% in 2016.
But the problem, as repeatedly stressed by economists, not on the scale of the recession this year — not so important, whether it’s half a percent or one percent. It is important that there are no preconditions for a quick “rebound” in the next three to five years. In the baseline scenario of economic development, the growth rate in the years 2017-2019 will be only 0.6–2.1 percent.
The government declares a transition from growth based on consumer demand, investment-oriented model. But now both investment and consumer demand are on the downside. According to Rosstat, in January – September, retail trade turnover decreased by 5.4%, investment in fixed capital fell in the first two quarters of the current year by 4.3,%. For the year overall demand and capex will come in positive zone, and this will be the second consecutive year when two key economic driver showed a decline. In 2017, both figures will be around zero — the projected growth of retail sales of 0.6% and a reduction in investment of 0.5%.
Officials and experts note that the population in the last year went to savings behaviors, and the business took “investment pause”.
Savings are rising, the banking sector receives additional resources not become cheap loans and investments.
So, according to analysts Sberbank CIB (they refer to the statistics of the Central Bank), retail deposits in January – September grew by 4.4% (adjusted for the change of course). At the same time with the beginning of the year the corporate sector with loans more than 1.5%, consumer loans increased by 0.7% (all adjusted for the change of course).
