“The trump factor” can push Obama on a military adventure in the Donbass.
The Ukrainian army is preparing for a new offensive in the Donbass, said the other day , Russia’s permanent representative to the UN Vitaly Churkin. Usually high officials such warnings made only on the basis of carefully tested intelligence. Hardly Churkin exception.
However, the Ukrainian officials do not hide their warlike intentions.
All this happens against the background of toughening anti-Russian rhetoric in the West. Even so always loyal to the West politician as former President of the USSR Mikhail Gorbachevsaw the signs of the slipping of the world towards a new global war. “NATO from the cold war has begun preparations for a transformation into a hot,” — he said “Interfax”.
“All the rhetoric in Warsaw just cries out for the desire almost to declare war on Russia. They only talk about protection, and actually prepare for offensive actions,” — said Gorbachev.
Almost at the same time contender for the presidency in the United States , Hillary Clinton said that his main task as President sees the security of Americans. Including from “Russian threat”.
Clinton also expressed confidence that the US has come “moment of truth”. “Powerful forces are threatening to tear us apart. Trust and respect is thinning,” said former Secretary of state, speaking at the Democratic Convention.
All this threatening political discord Russia responds to the rapid increase in military group on its southern and Western borders. According to defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, his Department has taken adequate measures in connection with the political escalation in the South-Western strategic direction due to the military presence of NATO in Eastern Europe and armed conflict in Ukraine. So, in the territory of the southern military district there are four divisions, nine brigades and 22 of the regiment, together with two missile brigades with Iskander-M”.
Characteristically, demonstrative game military muscle on the other, and this side of the Donbass front takes place on the eve of the Olympics. It may not be just a coincidence, but a pragmatic view of the political moment in the leading capitals. After all, the West has twice tried during the world sports games (summer in Beijing and winter in Sochi Russia cause unexpected geopolitical shock.
Overall, the impression is that we are on the eve of some terrible events. According to analysts, most likely, they should wait in the Donbass. Scenario decisive offensive of Kiev DNR and LC in the near future is realistic. If that happens, the armed conflict can go far beyond the region. Because with this turn of Affairs, neither Moscow nor Washington can’t just sit on the sidelines.
The only question is — will decide whether Russia and the United States to an open military confrontation in Ukraine? And if so, what scale can take that hit? And which will have consequences for the whole world?
— Indeed, the situation is tense, ” says leading expert of the Center for military-political research of the MGIMO Mikhail Alexandrov.
— The fact that Kiev flaunts the possible beginning of large military operations is understandable. Now Ukraine has sharply deteriorated economic situation and prospects of its improvement. In addition, Western financial institutions, particularly the international monetary Fund, refusing to issue new loans. Against this background, Kiev is trying to blackmail everyone, not just us.
Almost in the same way, he is blackmailing the West. The logic is simple: “now we go to war, and you have to disentangle. Give me the money”.
Russia is trying to make more pliable for gas, as well as in the dispute about the infamous three billionth loan that we are trying to get through the London court.
Therefore, all statements of Kiev “hawks”, I more see it as blackmail. However, there is one small but serious touch to this situation, which can not be ignored. Obama leaves the presidency without achieving any major success anywhere. Foreign policy is a total failure. The most important in Syria.
So Obama, like minded people and politician may finally try to take revenge, to raise their reputation. He may try to tie our hands by the war in Ukraine, so we were not able to be active in Syria.
Obama to such thoughts pushing and the fact that Turkey is now in Syria cannot much resist. So, in Russia there is a real opportunity to help the troops of Bashar al-Assad to inflict a decisive defeat on the gangs of Islamists in this country.
If Obama dare to such a combination, it will only hurt US. Since the recall of Ambassador Zurabov speaks volumes. This suggests that the leadership of Russia finally refused idea to rely on Poroshenko. After all, Zurabov tried to persuade the Kremlin, which in fact Petro Poroshenko do not want war. Like, he as you can, holding back the Ukrainian “party of war”.
As you can see, it was the wrong point of view, blasphemy. Following the removal of Zurabov you can expect a more active position of Russia on the issue of Donbass. And if Kiev will go to the next military adventure is not excluded that Russia will respond to a large-scale offensive operation.
“SP”: — What can be the purpose of such an operation?
It depends on many factors. Perhaps the offensive will focus on the former administrative border of Luhansk and Donetsk regions. And maybe — will be declared the operation “new Russia”. In the most audacious case — the overthrow of the current Pro-Western regime in Kiev and the holding of new presidential elections in Ukraine.
In favor of the fact that Russia is ready to take military action for aggression APU against the DNI and LC is the fact that we pulled significant troops to the southern borders don’t hide it.
In 2014 one of the factors which kept the Kremlin of sending troops to Ukraine, was the uncertainty that we have enough military forces to take control of the whole country. And now without further mobilization deployed along the Western borders forces enough to occupy at least the South-East of Ukraine.
“SP”: — Obama has repeatedly stated that the fight for Ukraine, America will not. Is it really so?
— Directly USA will not fight against Russia for Ukraine. They will continue tactics to fight against us by the hands of Ukrainians and mercenaries. Direct input of some military units of NATO in the area of armed conflict will mean a big loss for the West in a conventional war. Not only that — the world will face the threat of nuclear war. I’m still in 2014, said that NATO had neither the strength nor the determination to the Third world.
In any case, they have absolutely nothing to get involved in a direct confrontation with Russia. However, now arose “the trump factor” which makes one think of the American “hawks”. They were counting on a long-term strategy of suppression of Russia. Within two to three years, they would like enough to prepare the Ukrainian army and simultaneously to increase its forces in Eastern Europe to do serious size. And when APU went on the offensive in the DNI and LC, NATO troops from our Western borders would be a serious deterrent to Moscow.
And now it may turn out that trump, if he becomes President, perjorative us policy against China and international terrorism in the middle East. And Russia will try to reach a compromise. Not the fact that reach, but seriously try.
But if you succeed, then the whole course to build up NATO forces will fail. American “hawks” is, of course, do not like. So the situation is suspended. I repeat: Americans can try to drag us into a war in Ukraine, in order they themselves had more opportunities in Syria. While Obama will be the next opportunity to put Russia on the whole world as an aggressor.
“SP”: — the Factor of Olympics could be used by Americans?
— Yes, I do not exclude. Although the Americans have tried twice to use it. And in 2014, even successfully. Since the overthrow of Yanukovych on the eve of the Olympics in Sochi was a surprise to virtually everyone.
I said that Yanukovych could be overthrown, but did not expect so fast and hard. This time our management alert, the “Washington regional Committee” understands that.
In my opinion, militant rhetoric of Kiev is worth nothing, — sayshead of the analytical Department of the Institute of political and military analysis Alexander Khramchikhin. — Regime in Kiev from the very beginning of its existence, in General, focused on two things: rhetoric and propaganda.
“SP”: — However, in recent times in the West again intensified the cries of “Russian threat.” What is the reason?
— On the Russian threat to the Americans insist since 2008. Changes I do not see here. Enter the new NATO units to Eastern Europe from a military point of view — it’s ridiculous. Just some of the NATO countries, in particular Poland and the Baltic States are afraid that Russia will attack them. It’s such a historically conditioned phobia that has no basis today. Nevertheless, NATO brings to “sacrifice” these poor four battalions, as their presence in Eastern Europe psychologically calms the poles and Balts. In the sense that if anything will intercede for them.
