The commodity vector in the Russian economy in the two years of the crisis not only maintained its dominant position, but strengthened, despite the fall in dollar export revenues. This opinion was expressed by analysts of the Center of development of the Higher school of Economics (HSE).
“Two years since the beginning of the decline in oil prices and the introduction of sanctions and counter-sanctions, showed that the branch vector of the Russian economy changes little even under the influence of extreme shocks,” – said the head of the Center of development Natalia Akindinova.
Despite the 45% drop in dollar export revenues, the situation of extractive industries relative to other sectors of the Russian economy has only strengthened, says the expert.
Estimated the HSE, the volume of production by the end of July 2016 is practically not higher than those in 2014, however, against the background of the manufacturing industry dropped during the same period by 7.5%, and retail trade, decreased by 15%, this can be considered a great achievement.
Extractive industries helped double devaluation of the ruble, which has drastically reduced their costs, partially offsetting the collapse in the cost of energy.
In addition to mining for a sharp devaluation of the Russian currency reacted positively agriculture (growth by 5.1%) and manufacture of food products (growth by 3.3%), which additionally benefited from Russian counter-sanctions, experts say the HSE.
Meanwhile, in other sectors the signs of positive dynamics still almost not visible. “Uncertainty regarding the dynamics of the world economy and oil prices and about the future of economic development and economic policy remains very high, and domestic demand is weak,” – noted in the review. Against this background, analysts most likely scenario see the preservation of recession or at best stagnation of the Russian economy until the end of the year.
