Exactly two years promise to put this same post again (with your comments), even if it turns out completely wrong. At least it will be funny (or not). Overall, nothing original, just the development of the theme of emerging trends.
6 Jun 2016 years…
It’s all good. That is all bad, but not quite yet. Oil–gas sold, but the volume of foreign currency proceeds do not cover the costs. The budget deficit is growing. Understanding how to effectively make operating the economy within the framework of emptying the Treasury, the lack of foreign investments, a nearly paralyzed banking sector, and an embargo on modern technology and equipment – as there was no and no. Verbal intervention in the spirit of “sanctions have given us a unique chance to…” does not work. The sanctions, as it turned out, gave nothing, and only took. Despite the fact that the main downward trend emerged long before the Ukrainian events.
Growth drivers are still there. Ruble to the middle of 2016 somewhere 40,0 – 55,0 — in the best case, and 70.0 -80,0 for the worse. (At the time of writing the post 34.9 $). Prices are rising, purchasing power is falling, disappear from the shelves of familiar goods… Wages and pensions are not indexed, new jobs are not created, the premium is not paid. Massive layoffs are becoming commonplace.
Everywhere, collapsed social programs and funding for previously planned projects. The same Crimea will receive, at best, a third of the promised, as well as tourists is still not there, the situation is indeed serious. By the way, Chechnya is still financed in full out of fear that it will start separatism throughout the country.
Foreign investment is no more. In 2016 the Russian banking sector still exist, but considerably weakened by toxic assets. External management has already been introduced in some banks the top ten. Russia’s credit rating downgraded to ‘ B+’.
Almost completely phased out the mortgage. With the real estate market goes 50-70% of potential buyers. By the end of 2016 we see the fall of someone of the top developers. Avalanche, a growing number of unfinished.
Begin the first deliveries of LNG from the United States. The share of Russian gas in Europe continues to decline. “South stream” frozen, attempts to negotiate came to nothing lead. The slowing economy of China, and the activity of Turkmenistan make the Russian–Chinese contract even less attractive.
In the United States, “overheated” over the past couple of years, the market is forced to return to the framework of the main trend, korrektiruete down (to 14,500 – 15,000 on DJ). If “them” is insignificant “the increase in initial applications for benefits”, then third world countries is really ass. By the way, this “ass” makes the same Iran to be more accommodating on the nuclear program, with him partially lift sanctions, and its oil reaches the market, putting additional pressure on the Russian economy. By this time restored to the full volume of oil supplies from Libya, Iraq, Tunisia. Turkey buys large volumes of gas from Israel instead of Russia (the Tamar field).
Foreign exchange reserves while as it is, however, understanding how much of what is left – no matter how. Data are classified. Restrictions on purchase of currency is not introduced, but everyone understands that it’s (the restriction on the circulation of 2018, a total ban and prosecution with 2020-22).
Industry paralyzed by a final depreciation of fixed assets, inability to perekreditovyvatsya in Western banks, lack of imported spare parts and consumable materials and weak domestic demand. AVTOVAZ capacities are exploited by a third, the majority of unpaid leave. About superjets and yodafone no one remembers. Other domestic mega–projects are not, and not expected.
The pride of the economy – the defense industry still works and even sells something. However, the scheme is still the same – here’s our weapons, here’s our credit on our arms, here’s our write-off of our loan for our weapons… the Russian space Agency — neither the funding nor external orders. After exiting the ISS program and the failure of the US procurement of the RD–180, the industry is virtually at a standstill.
Currency in Russia is becoming less. The government calls for business to actively enter foreign markets. However, there are numerous lawsuits in connection with the Ukrainian events. For fear of arrest, state property abroad, transferred to the offshore, its further fate is very vague…
The media actively exaggerated the theme of revival of the USSR. In the Wake of the trend, with the filing of the same Glazyev or Rogozin, the question of the nationalization of the largest Russian enterprises. However, the choice of the applicant, it appears that the company, and so long owned by the state, or rather, to whom belongs the state itself. The theme is gradually eroding.
In parallel, discusses the collective and state farms, labor camps and other vestiges of the era of socialism, appealing to the Swedish experience of the Israeli kibbutzim, etc…. The people enthusiastically chooses a socio–economic model of the country, still believing in her bright future…
Ahead of default, loss of sovereignty, hyperinflation, unemployment, total deficit, ethnic conflicts, separatism, the redrawing of borders of ownership, spheres of influence, etc…. In 2015 it’s in almost no one believes. In 2016 it is very do not want to believe….
p.s. Something like that. Optimism, frankly, not a lot, but it is not me. If I am wrong at least a third, I’ll be just happy! The timing, of course, tentative and ultimately depends on the unpredictable actions of one unpredictable policy. But the vector is something like this.
