Between Belarus and Russia again ran a black cat. Minsk refuses to recognize the fact of the debt to Gazprom. For January-April has accumulated $ 125 million of debt. Against this background, the Minister of energy of Belarus Vladimir Potupchik said quietly in a recent press interview: “we have no debt-no, we pay in accordance with the intergovernmental agreement.”
Of course, Belarus is not going to get in the way of Ukraine to break off trade relations with Moscow, she has too strong ties to destroy them, without fear of consequences. Minsk in this case is risking its entire economy.
I can’t say that Lukashenka has found a new gas supplier to replace Gazprom, because of what he allegedly has now become so casual in Moscow. How would all of us not assured Jennifer Psaki, near sea Belarus is not, and so no supply of liquefied gas by water is not, there is only pipeline from Russia without any alternatives. But that did not stop from 1 January 2016 to start to consider Belarus the prices are different. The unwillingness of Minsk to pay according to the previously signed contract is a kind of “trying to throw the bait” in the hope that it will be possible to get an additional discount on natural gas.
Paying for gas takes place in dollars, this way Russia secured itself against currency risks, as current practice shows, with jumps of course, she did it not in vain. Only these risks are now moved to Minsk. If earlier Belarus was paying one price in recalculation on rubles, but now due to the fact that the dollar has risen more than twice, she needs to pay a very different. It is obvious that it is not profitable for Belarus, however, the contract with Russia she in 2013 he signed it, and so, knew what was going on. But despite that the Minsk decided to challenge its implementation.
Why Lukashenka went on this kind of risk of cooling relations? It may well be that Belarus is accustomed to the idea that in 2013, Europe was paying $ 350 per thousand cubic meters, and Belarus – 160. Now, the EU spends 180, 140 and Minsk, i.e. the difference has decreased in five times, so the “brotherly country” had decided that since she was the closest ally of Moscow, has the right to ask for an even lower price for gas.
In Russia hardly will make concessions. This can be seen by the fact that the dispute submitted to the trial level. And given the fact that the only buyer of gas of Gazprom in Belarus is its wholly owned subsidiary, Gazprom transgaz Belarus” will win in this case Moscow rather than Minsk.
Lukashenko in case of a loss, of course, not to lose their country, and Belarus will not go bankrupt the next day, just have to continue to pay as agreed in the contract. However, given its closer cooperation with the countries of Europe recent years, such a bad time with the gas can have a negative impact on his reputation in the Kremlin.
In Russia already now, many politicians, political scientists and figures of the media reacted critically to the desire of Minsk to repeat the actions of Ukraine, which in 2009 tried about the same “pitch”.
“Belarus has already given the biggest discount on the entire Eurasian space. Belarus too spoiled. Gazprom is absolutely right, not wanting to give a discount for this country in crisis, the Belarusian authorities just want at the expense of Russia and simultaneously solve the problem of output growth and lower inflation, “–said in an interview to the Internet edition “Vzglyad” Deputy Director of the analytical Department of “Alpari” Natalia Milchakova.
Still need to add that Moscow once again, in despair, gives Ukraine a reprieve on the payment of $ 3 billion and does not cover gas, although the debt will not go away. Minsk, in spite of all this, rightly decided that this time Russia behaves, not particularly friendly government in relation to Russia, then to his closest ally, i.e. Belarus, you would have to make a discount on gas. The problem is that Moscow does not want to carry over the additional losses in the crisis.
Economist and blogger Vasily Koltashov said the news Agency, Eurasia Daily: “I think the conflict almost impossible to avoid because of problems in the Belarusian economy only growing. Although Belarus is trying to maintain good relations with Russia but she can’t pay the bills regularly. Enterprise owed, and pay them, in General, nothing. Belarusian enterprises decreased sales in the Russian market, which is the main market for Belarus“.
The result is a stalemate – no matter how much Russia and Belarus did not want it, but some of the parties will still incur high costs. Either Moscow will concede, reviewing the terms of the contract, which is unlikely, or Minsk will lose in court and would have to pay despite the jump in the exchange rate. In any case an unpleasant aftertaste in the relations will remain, and this is another reason for Lukashenka, albeit cautiously, but to look for contacts with Europe and perhaps in the future to get a loan.
