According to experts, the flow of Turkish can be a tool of Russian pressure on the EU.
After years of silence, Russia and Turkey have resumed talks on gas pipeline Turkish stream. In the case of the implementation of the project Ukraine may lose a significant portion of transit of gas.
Yesterday, July 26, held talks with economy Minister of Turkey Nihat Zeybekci and Minister of energy of Russia Alexander Novak. The meeting discussed the question of resuming gas transportation project Turkish stream.
While Zeybekci noted that Turkey’s interest in the project. And present at the talks, Deputy Chairman of Gazprom Alexander Medvedev said that the working group will be created for project implementation. The next meeting of the Ministers can go through 6 August, ahead of the visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in St. Petersburg on August 9.
For Ukraine, this is negative news since the implementation of the project, it will lose part of the transit flow. “The losses will amount to 15 billion cubic meters. This volume of transit to Turkey,” says co-chair of the energy strategies Foundation Dmytro Marunych. According to him, Ukraine could lose up to $400 million.
In 2015, Ukraine increased gas transit to Europe and Moldova is 8% compared to 2014 year – up to 67 billion cubic meters In the I half of 2016, the transit of gas to Europe and Moldova increased by 31% compared to the same period of 2015 – up to 37.6 billion cubic meters.
However, the implementation of the Turkish stream is still in question. According to the head analytical Department of the IR, Eavex Capital Dmitry Churin, at current gas prices, the construction of the pipeline unprofitable.
It is also unclear who will Finance the project. “Russia has no money to execute the planned investment projects to increase production, – explains the head of the Alliance New energy of Ukraine Valery Borovikov. – Turkey may be interested in the building but not at his own expense.
The interest of the parties can only be a political maneuver. President of the centre for global studies Strategy XXI Mykhailo Gonchar says that the priority for Turkey is TANAP (Azerbaijani field Shah-Deniz on the Caspian shelf via Georgia, Turkey, Greece, Albania to southern Italy). That is, it makes no sense to hurry with the construction of the Turkish stream.
“I think Turkey is a great game because it needs to join the negotiation process with Russia”, – says Gonchar.
But Russia itself mimics the importance of the project, he continues. Thus Russia can blackmail Europe to accelerate the construction of Nord Stream II as the more important of the pipeline. This project is more advanced, it spent a lot of effort, moreover, he repeats the route of the Nord Stream I.
But the Turkish stream is only at the level of ideas. According to Potter, it is not yet prepared project documentation and agreed the sections of the sea route. In addition, you need to get an approval on allocation of land and compliance with the Third energy package, puts Borovik.
“Blackmail Russia over the same things over South stream,” says Borovik.
